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Senator Kennedy - How Will He Exit the Hospital Doors?

Settled as He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray!

Media vigil continues at Mass. General for Senator Kennedy



"More than 50 reporters and photographers kept their eyes and cameras trained today on Massachusetts General Hospital, keeping vigil as the nation waited for any update on the condition of Senator Edward M. Kennedy."

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2008/05/media_vigil_con.html
 
% chance over time
   Zoom in

Settled

He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray!
97%
He Exits Using Crutches
0%
He Exits Assisted by Others for Physical Support
1%
He Exits in a Wheelchair
0%
He Exits on a Stretcher
0%
Other
2%
Activity: H$35,694
Settled as He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! on Wed 21st May 10:36am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 27th May 1:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 21st May 10:36am PDT

Initial likelihoods: He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray!: 41%, He Exits Using Crutches: 9%, He Exits Assisted by Others for Physical Support: 30%, He Exits in a Wheelchair: 1%, He Exits on a Stretcher: 1%, Other: 18%

Action history:

Created Mon 19th May 8:36pm PDT by fingers_of_fury
Clarified Wed 21st May 4:22am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: No real need for clarification but if anyones confused if Kennedy doesn't leave the market would be settled as other
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 8:06am PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]: It seems he walked?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24755896/
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 8:27am PDT by noah_reason: Picture of him walking out of the hospital on the Wall Street Journel website

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121137904993110615.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 8:29am PDT by jake: He walked out of the hospital.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90Q30OG1&show_article=1
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 9:03am PDT by Erik: "The 76-year-old Kennedy waved to a crowd of well-wishers and gave a thumbs-up as he walked out of Massachusetts General Hospital amid heavy security. His dogs greeted him at the hospital door."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080521/ap_on_go_co/kennedy_124

Settlement requested Wed 21st May 9:48am PDT by gingerboi: "walked" that's a whopping hint... isn't it... for exanple, it might suggested he walked. Something like that. But's it's Friday Happy Hour in Ireland! HI GUYS!
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 9:52am PDT by gingerboi: well...Wednesay.. whatever.. anyday anyhour is Happy Hour in a garage in Edinburgh..
Settled as 'He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray!' Wed 21st May 10:36am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080521/ap_on_go_co/kennedy_124
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
9 weeks ago
ekatz predicted He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! (H$100)
9 weeks ago
ph1dr predicted He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! (H$500)
9 weeks ago
jerry predicted He Exits in a Wheelchair (H$20)
9 weeks ago
ant_bee predicted He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! (H$100)
9 weeks ago
noah_reason predicted He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! (H$3,400)
9 weeks ago
noah_reason predicted He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! (H$100)
9 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Power User] predicted He Exits in a Wheelchair (H$50)
9 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Power User] predicted Other (H$20)
9 weeks ago
noah_reason predicted He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray! (H$4,000)
9 weeks ago
noah_reason predicted He Exits in a Wheelchair (H$20)

@ f_o_f... nicely composed, much better than the mess I created with my question that I thought was very straight forward but lent itself to so many interpretations.
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 owl1
Well, valorn, this one has interpretations too. Most hospitals make you go to your car in a wheelchair even if you feel as strong as Arnold.
posted 9 weeks ago
@owl1 - Very true... that would settle as "He Exits in a Wheelchair", even if he later walks around a while to greet people, just so long as he's sitting on the chair through the doors. If after walking through the doors unassisted he is given aid that would settle as "He Exits With No Assistance - Hurray!"

The "Other" would include none of the above or something like the wheel chair stopping halfway through the door and he stands up to walk.

@valornhonor - Thank you... I hope your question works itself out ok.
posted 9 weeks ago
  4 jake
He is a Kennedy. The lowly masses will probably carry him out on their backs.
posted 9 weeks ago
  5 mrmike
Doctors say Sen. Edward Kennedy has brain tumor; condition discovered after he had seizure.

http://www.cnn.com/
posted 9 weeks ago
  6 randburg
This question only deals with **HOW** Senator Edward Kennedy exits the hospital. Presumably, if he does NOT exit the hospital by the suspend date, the question will be voided (as the event has not occurred)...
posted 9 weeks ago
No, if he hasn't exited the hospital by the suspend date, we merely push the suspend date back again. There's no 'settle by date' (which tend to be less flexible).
posted 9 weeks ago
  8 morgie
Would leaving in a body bag be other?
posted 9 weeks ago
  9 mrmike
I think body bag would be qualified as "stretcher" :-)

Okay, while we're on morbid thoughts.... what if he does die and donates his organs? Does that count as "exiting the hospital" because that could be in many different forms.
posted 9 weeks ago
  10 randburg
I think this question presumed that Senator Kennedy would be going home alive after being treated for stroke/seizure/whatever after a few days treatment/testing/rest/rehab...and the interesting prospect of how he would exit the hospital would lend some bearing on the seriousness of his current condition...and from the suspend date, that he would probably be leaving in a week or less...with the "other" category in place, just in case. Does that reasonably sum it up?

Now we have a more serious condition than we anticipated and possibly a longer stay in hospital. Other than that, what has changed? A transfer to another hospital will probably be by either stretcher or wheelchair, depending on policy and seriousness at the time. Body bag goes by stretcher to the morgue or "other" to a funeral home. Organ donation doesn't leave the hospital, and the question could either be settled as other or void.

Fingers, do you have any clarifications for us? It's your question, and your opinion should be final on when and how we might settle this question...Feel free to clarify or change anything that any of us have said...thanks!

posted 9 weeks ago
When I created the question, based on news reports at the time, it appeared he would leave within the week, perhaps two weeks at most. The news reports today certainly change everything. If it's OK with Admin, I would like the suspend date extended, based on these new circumstances.

If, God forbid, he doesn't recover and leaves in a body bag, that would most likely be on a stretcher, also called a gurney: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurney When I included the option for stretcher, I never dreamed it was much of a possibility, but now his fight with cancer makes it more likely.

I will flag the question and request help/advice/editing from Admin. I haven't wagered yet, but I think it would be wise to let Admin make the decision to avoid any appearances of "conflict of interest" on my part.
posted 9 weeks ago
Here is the note I sent to Admin:

Dear Admin,

I created this question before news broke that Sen. Edward Kennedy has cancerous brain tumor: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080520/ap_on_go_co/kennedy

At time of question creation, it seemed he would leave the hospital within a week, so I set the question to suspend within one week.

Users would like to know what happens now? Do we extend the suspend date? If we don't extend it, does it settle as 'Other' if he is still in the hospital at suspend date? There is also the Void option, but since I included the stretcher option and the "OTHER" option, I am hopeful that the question can be salvaged by some minor edits and/or clarification.

I haven't wagered on this question yet, but I would appreciate your input/advice/decision to avoid the appearance of any conflict of interest on my part.

Thank you for your time and consideration,
Fingers
posted 9 weeks ago
  13 randburg
That's a great note to admin, and certainly covers how I feel. Hopefully others feel the same way. I don't see any need to void: extending the suspend date (under the unexpected circumstances) and some MINOR editing should be more than satisfactory...
posted 9 weeks ago
  14 owl1
Unexpected situation, you could suspend and rewrite, or just amend. I vote for amend.
posted 9 weeks ago
  15 ryanj[Admin]
Hi guys,

I know people aren't going to like my decision but although I want to be flexible with markets. Clarifying in the middle of a market always creates problems, because people interpret markets differently. So we need things as clear cut as possible. And I'm trying to stop clarifying in the middle of a market, it's hard to always do but in the end it creates less confusion.

For this market I'm not voiding because there is no reason to. But if Kennedy doesn't leave by the suspend date and seeing as no end date was given the market would settle as other. This is what the markets asking, and the other category is in the market for just this type of scenario. So no clarification is needed, if something else happens that isn't listed (Kennedy doesn't leave) the market settles as other.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 9 weeks ago
Thank you, Ryan
posted 9 weeks ago
  17 gingerboi
C'mon Ted, don't leave American royalty down.. walk, big fella, walk.
posted 9 weeks ago
  18 gingerboi
or, alternatively, "let" american royalty down although there is a good argument for "leave" as well, in terms of 'leaving' the fold... or some such thing... and I best just leave right now. Goodbye.
posted 9 weeks ago
  19 owl1
Man, you people on the east coast really have an edge.
posted 9 weeks ago
  20 gingerboi
it's the charlie owl1.
posted 9 weeks ago
  21 mvr79
He Walked out, yay!!!
posted 9 weeks ago
  22 Erik
sooooooooooo......when's this gonna settle?
posted 9 weeks ago
  23 gingerboi
when the world runs out of Guiness.
posted 9 weeks ago

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