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What Price Will The 3G iPhone Sell At?

Settled as About $200

http://news.digitaltrends.com/news-article/16949/apple-touts-iphone-3g-iphone-apps-at-wwdc

The Iphone will sell for $199 (8GB version)

Background:

Background: Apple is widely expected to launch the 3G iPhone this summer and the current forecast is for it to happen in June. Fortune is reporting:

When the 3G iPhone is introduced this summer, AT&T, the exclusive U.S. iPhone sales partner with Apple, will cut the price by as much as $200, according to a person familiar with the strategy.

AT&T is preparing to subsidize $200 of the cost of a new iPhone, bringing the price down to $199 for customers who sign two-year contracts, the source says. Apple is expected to have two versions of the new iPhone, an 8-gigabyte-memory and a 16-gigabyte-memory model with price tags widely expected to be $399 and $499.


This question will be settled as the price for the lower spec 3G iPhone (8-gigabyte or otherwise) with AT&T 2-year subsidy at launch.

Settlement details:This question will be settled as the outcome closest to the price for the lower spec 3G iPhone (8-gigabyte or otherwise) with AT&T 2-year subsidy at launch.

 
Forecast history %
About $100
3%
About $200
33%
About $300
46%
About $400
15%
About $500
3%
Settled as About $200 on Mon 9th Jun 2008 2:42pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 9th Jun 2008 2:42pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: About $100: 5%, About $200: 50%, About $300: 30%, About $400: 10%, About $500: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 20th May 2008 1:21am PST by punditwatch[Admin]
Clarified Tue 20th May 2008 2:31am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: If the price is exactly at the mid-point (e.g. $150) we will round up.
Suspended Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 9th Jun 2008 11:45am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: 8GB is 199$.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/news-article/16949/apple-touts-iphone-3g-iphone-apps-at-wwdc
Settled as 'About $200' Mon 9th Jun 2008 2:42pm PST by ryanj: http://news.digitaltrends.com/news-article/16949/apple-touts-iphone-3g-iphone-apps-at-wwdc

The Iphone will sell for $199 (8GB version)

Suspend date: Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 9th Jun 2008 2:42pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (60)

1 year ago
lucidstates predicted About $200 (H$100 at 33%)
1 year ago
iheartartoo predicted About $200 (H$100 at 28%)
1 year ago
valornhonor predicted About $300 (H$50 at 53%)
1 year ago
tkohler predicted About $300 (H$100 at 52%)
1 year ago
lucidstates predicted About $300 (H$500 at 49%)

Comments (3)

  1 gregmatta
Needs more specific pricing range.
posted 1 year ago
We will settle at the outcome that is closest to the actual price (as per the settlement details)
posted 1 year ago
I loooove this Q and I really like the Settlement details, I think it works great :-D THanks pundit and Nigel!
posted 1 year ago

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