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How many people will receive a pardon from Bush before the end of his Presidency?

Voided

Mork, the market still asks a good question, so we know how many he's already pardoned so maybe you can remake the market but with options for # of pardons starting off after the number of pardons he's already given.

Background:

The power of pardon in the U.S. presidency includes the ability to grant a full pardon, commutation of a sentence and/or the granting of clemency.

Bill Clinton has the most ever at 10.
George Bush Sr. led before that with 5.
Will George Jr. keep up the pace and have 15?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

16 or more
20%
11 to 15
30%
6 to 10
30%
1 to 5
20%
Voided Fri 23rd May 8:09am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: 16 or more: 20%, 11 to 15: 30%, 6 to 10: 30%, 1 to 5: 20%

Action history:

Created Tue 20th May 1:59pm PDT by mork[Power User]
Suspended Thu 22nd May 8:19pm PDT by mork[Power User]: see settlement request
Settlement requested Thu 22nd May 8:19pm PDT by mork[Power User]: Market decided before question was created. - http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-12-29-pardons-history_x.htm (market suspended)
Voided Fri 23rd May 8:09am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Mork, the market still asks a good question, so we know how many he's already pardoned so maybe you can remake the market but with options for # of pardons starting off after the number of pardons he's already given.

Suspend date: Mon 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (51)

51 predictions

26 weeks ago
jimbo predicted 6 to 10 (H$20 at 15%)
26 weeks ago
jakob predicted 16 or more (H$250 at 57%)
26 weeks ago
sawta predicted 16 or more (H$50 at 56%)
26 weeks ago
tpillon predicted 16 or more (H$100 at 55%)
26 weeks ago
rogi predicted 1 to 5 (H$20 at 10%)
more

Comments (26)

  1 crowe
does pardoning himself from future war crimes count?
posted 26 weeks ago
  2 randburg
Charity begins at home...maybe pardons, too?
posted 26 weeks ago
What if there are no pardons??
posted 26 weeks ago
  4 chatarra
Clinton actually pardoned many more than 10.

On January 20, 2001, he pardoned 140 people in the final hours of his presidency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_by_Bill_Clinton#Pardons
posted 26 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
@raiders Libby's got 1 already
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 mork[Power User]
Thanks Chatarra,
I thought it was 10 because of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_by_a_United_States_president#Bill_Clinton
posted 26 weeks ago
  7 cognos[Power User]
1 - Libby
2 - Ignacio "Nacho" Ramos
3 - Jose Compean
allthough I HATE to have to list #2&3 together with the likes of #1. jmo
posted 26 weeks ago
  8 chatarra
Libby had his sentence commuted,
but Ramos and Compean have not been pardoned or had their sentence commuted yet.

Bush's priorities regarding our border almost make me want to vote democratic where I will expect such nonsense. I have nothing against selective immigration to our country, but have a big problem with unlimited illegal immigration.

Ship the jobs out of the country & then bring in more workers = Let's watch the middle class disappear.
posted 26 weeks ago
ALL of the ones who helped him....if they are lucky...
posted 26 weeks ago
  10 owl1
I'm hoping that slacker Congress is saving impeachment for about October. If under impeachment I think a Pres. loses his pardon power. I hope they have the cojones.
posted 26 weeks ago
  11 Erik
owl....you really need to keep abreast of the news. Georgia Rep. Cynthia(rock 'em sock 'em)McKinney, of Capitol police boxing fame, introduced just such a bill two years ago. Sadly, House Speaker "San Fran Nan" Pelosi, D-Calif., has made clear that she will not entertain proposals to sanction Bush and has warned the liberal wing of her party against making political hay of impeachment.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/12/08/national/w152917S79.DTL
posted 26 weeks ago
  12 jake
President Bush has no reason to be impeached. Any talk of that is nonsense.
posted 26 weeks ago
Is this just pardons, or does sentence commutation and clemency also count?
posted 26 weeks ago
  14 markov
If anyone knows how many pardons each of the last five presidents, including the sitting president thus far, have issued it would be of great interest. Since it appears that the more pardons a president issues the more his character and motives should be drawn into question, perhaps the answer to this question will serve to educate us as to which has served us most incapably.
posted 26 weeks ago
  16 owl1
Things have changed in the last 2 years Erik, they even changed today with the Rove subpoena, seems to me the Dems are growing a pair. SFN, I like that, will have opposition next time too and that may make her reconsider.
posted 26 weeks ago
  17 mork[Power User]
http://tinyurl.com/5lmllu
posted 26 weeks ago
  18 markov
Thanks, mork! Info is there. Article indicates only the most prominent are listed but it does give some idea. I wonder if there is someplace on the internet that has the raw numbers.
posted 26 weeks ago
  19 destry[Admin]
@markov - I read the link provided and it listed about 120 people but says in text he had pardoned 157 as of March. The number will be widely available in the news after his term expires.

I am worried that this question is skewed by the background information which doesn't seem accurate. Which would make the starting odds incredibly off, and the outcomes not very competitive. What is the opinion of voiding market and creating a new market with accurate background information, there is plenty of time on this question before it would be settled.
posted 26 weeks ago
  20 mork[Power User]
Sounds like I didn't do enough research when making this question.
I guess I shouldn't rely on wikipedia eh?
I hope some wiki enthusiast finds it upon themself to update it.
posted 26 weeks ago
  21 destry[Admin]
There are other sources for finding presidential pardons. The White House is a good source and so are legal research websites. Here is a link for a google search engine that seaches government databases - http://www.google.com/ig/usgov
posted 26 weeks ago
  22 mork[Power User]
Thats cool destry!...I like the google.
posted 26 weeks ago
Here are the relevant statistics http://www.justice.gov/pardon/actions_administration.htm#clinton

It is surprising how they are trending downward.
posted 25 weeks ago
@Mork,

If you do recreate this question you should clarify whether it only refers to pardons, or to all petitions granted (including commutation of sentences and remission of fines).
posted 25 weeks ago
  25 markov
Good find, anaverageamerican!
posted 25 weeks ago
  26 mork[Power User]
I've decided not to remake this question.
I hope somebody else does.
posted 25 weeks ago

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