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Who will be next german Bundespräsident ?

Current forecast: Horst Köhler (76% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Horst Köhler with a probability of 76% (down 2% in last 1 day)

2009 a new president is elected in Germany. Currently Horst Koehler has this office and there is an debatte if social party SPD offer a own candidate for the job. Election is on may 23th 2009


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Horst Köhler
76%
Gesine Schwan
20%
Any other
4%
Activity: H$11,210
Question suspends in 26 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 23rd May 2009 10am PDT (26 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Horst Köhler: 45%, Gesine Schwan: 45%, Any other: 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 21st May 1:41am PDT by questmaster

Suspend date: Sat 23rd May 2009 10am PDT (26 weeks to go)
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Predictions (61)

61 predictions

4 days ago
csnews predicted Horst Köhler (H$100 at 75%)
4 weeks ago
mfriss predicted Horst Köhler (H$300 at 75%)
7 weeks ago
pepe predicted Horst Köhler (H$300 at 74%)
7 weeks ago
php_ini predicted Horst Köhler (H$400 at 72%)
7 weeks ago
freeze predicted Any other (H$20 at 5%)
more

Comments (1)

Today there was an poll posted on german mainstream journal Spiegel.de

~1000 were ask who they would elect, if they could elect the Bundespräsident directly ( for your information:
In Germany the president is elected by the "Bundesversammlung" which is represended by both parts of the goverment "Bundesrat" & "Bundestag" and not direct by the people. So the Bundespräsident is voted by I mirror of the governance + the opposition.

17% Gesine Schwan
85% Horst Köhler
posted 25 weeks ago

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