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Will Wikipedia reach 2.6 million articles in English by end August?

Current forecast: 2% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 2% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Current count -
2,381,301
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

tomg: question changed to *end* August to clarify this is inclusive (question created before the definition of 'by' was changed to be exclusive, rule not applied retroactively)
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
2%
No
98%
Activity: H$112,955
Question suspends in 2 days
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: this Monday 12:59am PDT (2 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 52%

Action history:

Created Wed 21st May 12:05pm PDT by junkie_1
Suspended Wed 6th Aug 1:08pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 6th Aug 1:08pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: 2,492,158 as of August 6th
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page (market suspended)
Unsuspended Thu 7th Aug 2:39am PDT by tomg[Admin]: This question was created before the rule change that says 'by' is exclusive of month, so it remains 'by end August' ('end' added as clarification)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (109)

109 predictions

2 days ago
markieman234 predicted No (H$100 at 98%)
1 week ago
krups predicted Yes (H$20 at 2%)
1 week ago
gadget666 predicted No (H$5 at 98%)
1 week ago
charlie_dowden predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
1 week ago
iksor predicted No (H$20 at 97%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 chatarra
2,478,859 articles in English
7-29-2008 20:51 MDT
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3:59am EDT (3 weeks to go)
posted 3 weeks ago
  3 pixelpaws
It's only now broken 2.5 million. I don't see how there could be 100,000 new articles in the next 19 days.
posted 2 weeks ago

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