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Suspected wife-killer Drew Peterson - will he be convicted of weapons charge?

Settled as Some other outcome

Chicago area ex-cop Drew Peterson is under suspicion for the death of a previous wife, and disappearance of his current wife. Authorities recently charged him with a weapons violation. See background at: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/P/POLICE_OFFICERS_WIFE?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=US

The specific charge appears a little bit thin. What will the outcome be for Peterson, if anything, before August 1, 2008?
 
% chance over time
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Settled

Charge is dropped
30%
Acquitted at trial
12%
Convicted at trial of original charge
4%
Some other outcome
54%
Activity: H$15,208
Settled as Some other outcome on Sat 2nd Aug 1:10pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. To be settled as "some other outcome" if none of the other listed outcomes occur by suspend date.

Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 10:59pm PDT

Settlement date: Sat 2nd Aug 1:10pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Jul 10:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Charge is dropped: 45%, Acquitted at trial: 30%, Convicted at trial of original charge: 10%, Some other outcome: 15%

Action history:

Created Wed 21st May 3:44pm PDT by raidersin09
Suspended Thu 31st Jul 10:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 2nd Aug 7:46am PDT by gotmick: This can be settled as "Some other outcome".

http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/1081664,boling30.article

None of the other outcomes occured by the suspend date as specified by the question's creator.
Settlement requested Sat 2nd Aug 12:42pm PDT by newsie: Suspend date reached.
Settled as 'Some other outcome' Sat 2nd Aug 1:10pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/1081664,boling30.article

The trial is going to be held but has not been before August 1st
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. To be settled as "some other outcome" if none of the other listed outcomes occur by suspend date.... read all

 

Predictions

43 predictions

3 weeks ago
youbet predicted Some other outcome (H$1,000 at 71%)
3 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Some other outcome (H$20 at 68%)
4 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted Some other outcome (H$60 at 68%)
4 weeks ago
curly predicted Charge is dropped (H$50 at 21%)
4 weeks ago
newsie predicted Some other outcome (H$100 at 68%)
more

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