punditwatch
Will Microsoft Increase Its Market Share In Search 3 Months After Launching Live Search Cashback?
Microsoft's share was 8.9%, so it fell not increased: http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2476
Background:
Michael Arrington at TechCrunch writes "This new approach is both desperate and brilliant." and "Will It Work? Yes, it will work and it will almost certainly increase Microsoft’s market share in search, particularly in commerce search."
However he seems alone in his enthusiasm. Henry Blodget at SAI says it is a great idea that won't work. MG Siegler at VentureBeat is more scathing saying "The question is if this will have any meaningful effect on Microsoft’s current 3rd-place search market share in the search business. The answer? Probably not. Microsoft should worry about improving its algorithms or coming up with a completely new way of doing search — not paying users to use an inferior product."
So by August will Microsoft manage to increase its market share from the 9.1% recorded in April?
Settlement details:Question will be settled as a Yes if Microsoft's Domestic Core Search Market Share (as measured by comScore) in August is higher than 9.1% (which is its share in April). Otherwise it will be settled as No.
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$46,517 |
- Predictions: 108 |
Comments: 4
Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 6th Oct 2008 2:34am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
nigeleccles![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Note, if Microsoft were to buy either Yahoo, Ask, AOL or any other major search player this will not be included in calculating their numbers 
exilpat
: acording to net applications microsofts marketshare fell from 2,41 % in Mai to 1,54 % in August.
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5&qpdt=1&qpct=4&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=112&qpnp=4
tomg
: Microsoft's share was 8.9%, so it fell not increased: http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2476 
Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 6th Oct 2008 2:34am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (108)
swilson
predicted No (H$5,000 at 76%)Comments (4)
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