Created Thu 22nd May 12pm PDT by 
triathematician
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » triathematician What will the closest margin be between Obama/Clinton in the Gallup daily polling (through 6/15)?
Settled as Clinton down 4-6
Highest margin was 5
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107677/Gallup-Daily-Voters-Evenly-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx
Background:
The Gallup daily poll has given Obama a 10 point lead over Clinton in national polling for nearly a week. With Obama having reached a majority of pledged delegates, will this trend continue, or will Clinton be able to come back?
Questions concerns polls with specified dates. Polls are released at about 1300 the day after they are conducted.
The question will settle based upon Clinton's best showing. E.g. If a poll came out with Obama/52, Clinton/46, and all other polls have a margin of 6 or more, the question would settle as "Clinton down 4-6". The question be settled early ONLY if (i) Clinton regains the lead, or (ii) Clinton drops out.
If Clinton drops out, the market should settle as the best showing up to the date at which this occurs.
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Questions concerns polls with specified dates. Polls are released at about 1300 the day after they are conducted.
The question will settle based upon Clinton's best showing. E.g. If a poll came out with Obama/52, Clinton/46, and all other polls have a margin of 6 or more, the question would settle as "Clinton down 4-6". The question be settled early ONLY if (i) Clinton regains the lead, or (ii) Clinton drops out.
If Clinton drops out, the market should settle as the best showing up to the date at which this occurs.
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Settled
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Clinton regains lead |
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Clinton down 0-3 |
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Clinton down 4-6 |
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Clinton down 7-9 |
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Clinton down 10+ |
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Activity: H$16,462
Settled as Clinton down 4-6 on Wed 4th Jun 7:59pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Suspend date: Sun 15th Jun 12:59am PDT
Settlement date: Wed 4th Jun 7:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods:
Clinton regains lead: 3%, Clinton down 0-3: 7%, Clinton down 4-6: 10%, Clinton down 7-9: 30%, Clinton down 10+: 50%
Action history:
Created Thu 22nd May 12pm PDT by triathematician
triathematician
Suspended Wed 4th Jun 1:23pm PDT by 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Suspended pending settlement
jenniandboys: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 4th Jun 1:23pm PDT by jenniandboys: Gallup will no longer report Obama v Clinton.
The lowest margin was 5. Settles as 4-6
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107677/Gallup-Daily-Voters-Evenly-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx (market suspended)
jenniandboys: Gallup will no longer report Obama v Clinton.
The lowest margin was 5. Settles as 4-6
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107677/Gallup-Daily-Voters-Evenly-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx (market suspended)
Settled as 'Clinton down 4-6' Wed 4th Jun 7:59pm PDT by 
ryanj: Highest margin was 5
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107677/Gallup-Daily-Voters-Evenly-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx
ryanj: Highest margin was 5
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107677/Gallup-Daily-Voters-Evenly-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx... read all
Predictions (41)
41 predictions
kida
gingerboi
steveb
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Clinton regains lead (H$10 at 1%)Comments (0)
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