triathematician How long will Obama maintain a lead over McCain in the Gallup daily polling?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107485/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-Clinton-44.aspx
Background:
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
These are five day averages. Dates used in options are the date of the poll, not the day they are released.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Settled
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McCain first regains lead in May 22-May 26 poll |
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McCain first regains lead in May 27-Jun 2 poll |
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McCain first regains lead in Jun 3-Jun 9 poll |
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McCain first regains lead in Jun 10-16 poll |
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McCain first regains lead in Jun 17-23 poll |
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McCain first regains lead in Jun 24-30 poll |
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Obama maintains lead through the end of June |
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Either candidate drops out |
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Suspend date: Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 25th May 7:58am PDT
Initial likelihoods: McCain first regains lead in May 22-May 26 poll: 20%, McCain first regains lead in May 27-Jun 2 poll: 15%, McCain first regains lead in Jun 3-Jun 9 poll: 10%, McCain first regains lead in Jun 10-16 poll: 10%, McCain first regains lead in Jun 17-23 poll: 10%, McCain first regains lead in Jun 24-30 poll: 10%, Obama maintains lead through the end of June: 24%, Either candidate drops out: 1%
Action history:
triathematician 
cjg999: http://www.gallup.com/poll/107485/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-Clinton-44.aspx
Settlement source shows McCain at 46% and Obama at 45% for the 23rd.
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Suspended pending settlement destry: Please settle. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107485/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-Clinton-44.aspx (market suspended) 
tisha: http://www.gallup.com/poll/107485/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-Clinton-44.aspx
Suspend date: Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 25th May 7:58am PDT
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Get widget!Predictions (20)
20 predictions
triathematician predicted McCain first regains lead in May 22-May 26 poll (H$100 at 24%)
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