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Will Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2008?

Current forecast: 6% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 6% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

This year Florida still hasn't been hit by a hurricane. For a state that's intrinsically connected to the hurricane season, she's gotten off quite lucky so far. There were some very close hits and Florida has sustained damage from wind and flooding due to tropical storms but no hurricanes have yet to hit.

It seems each time a hurricane forms in the Atlantic this markets odds go up only to be brought down once again as the storm enters the gulf. But luck doesn't continue forever and it's almost an assured thing that by the end of the season something nasty will hit, then again maybe luck does last forever or at least until the end of the hurricane season.

Statistically Florida usually gets hit in September and October so those two months are the ones to watch the satellite maps!


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. The Hurricane must make landfall as a hurricane. Outlying islands (Key West) do count for settlement

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$208,360
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 7:59am PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 22nd May 8:55pm PDT by stockpicker

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 7:59am PST (1 week to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (171)

171 predictions

2 days ago
blue23 predicted No (H$50 at 94%)
1 week ago
kearnsdm predicted Yes (H$100 at 9%)
1 week ago
pippi1500 predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
1 week ago
silvermchic predicted No (H$400 at 91%)
1 week ago
marshall predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 frank2877
Florida is a hurricane magnet! Bet the farm! :-)
posted 22 weeks ago
LOL - Yeah... that is what they say every year!
posted 22 weeks ago
  3 pixelpaws
For anyone betting this question up due to Hurricane Paloma, take a look at the NHC's wind probability map. There's no portion of Florida currently showing a 5% chance of being hit.
posted 1 week ago

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