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How effective will the U.S. Military's 'spray- on' bomb detection science be when September arrives?

Settled as Not in use

No news of bomb detector being used for commercial purposes

Background:

US scientists have designed a new spray-on explosive detector sensitive enough to detect just a billionth of a gram of TNT. The same team is currently working on a similar system to detect peroxide-based explosives and say they hope to be able to investigate perchlorates and organic nitrates too. press release: http://www.rsc.org/AboutUs/News/PressReleases/2008/GlowingExplosiveDetector.asp


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
All possible outcomes refer to active U.S. military.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Used for TNT only
4%
Not in use
91%
Used for TNT and Peroxide only
3%
Used for TNT, Peroxide and more
2%
Activity: H$17,300
Settled as Not in use on Mon 1st Sep 1:23am PDT

Suspend date: Sun 24th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 1:23am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 24th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Used for TNT only: 35%, Not in use: 25%, Used for TNT and Peroxide only: 25%, Used for TNT, Peroxide and more: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd May 10:14am PDT by mork[Power User]
Suspended Sun 24th Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Not in use' Mon 1st Sep 1:23am PDT by tisha[Admin]: No news of bomb detector being used for commercial purposes

Suspend date: Sun 24th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 1:23am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 24th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (63)

63 predictions

12 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted Not in use (H$140 at 91%)
12 weeks ago
bency predicted Not in use (H$300 at 91%)
12 weeks ago
bency predicted Not in use (H$124 at 91%)
13 weeks ago
eckertkid predicted Not in use (H$1,000 at 90%)
13 weeks ago
hilly predicted Not in use (H$357 at 88%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 mork[Power User]
I find the current news headline ironic:

Nobel prize goes to Incitec
Sydney Morning Herald 23 hours ago
SHAREHOLDERS in Dyno Nobel, the world's second-largest supplier of explosives, have overwhelmingly approved a $2.6 billion takeover by the...
posted 25 weeks ago
Hard to say, I know that if you show up at an airport with shoes that you've walked through a recently fertilized garden in, or have handled heart medicine, or are carrying marzipan (looks like plastique explosive to a detection machine), that you'll like get a lovely chat with some uniformed folks who have a few questions.
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 skipper[Power User]
lol valornhonor...
also if you have a bottle of cologne that you accidentally leave in your carry on :(... the man was nice atleast
TSA scary man: "now, I am going to put my hand in the bag and look for the bottle of liquid, is there any thing sharp, like a knife, in there that might cut me?"
Me: "I sure as hell hope not"
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 mork[Power User]
@valor
They are doing that dubai...there`s a couple of british locked up after they found traces of drugs...one guy on the bottom of his shoe.

when reading one of the articles this morning, some of the real technical mumbo jumbo, left me with the impression that fertilizer wouldn`t cause a false positive.

Don`t quote me on that.

It can differentiate between two types of nitrogen. I`m not sure of which.
posted 25 weeks ago
  5 markov
I may have missed something in the article but they can't possibly be considering spraying everyone waiting to board a plane. If someone is suspect enough to spray why don't they just take them away for swab testing and spare everyone the mess?
posted 25 weeks ago
  6 mork[Power User]
@markov.
The technology will have to be in use by the military. I think most likely in a situation like on road blocks where they may suspect someone. They currently do this but with older technology. This technique is apparently far more desirable because of its simplicity and reliability, if deployable.
posted 25 weeks ago
  7 markov
@mork:

Makes much more sense that way. I should have realized it was not being considered for airports.
posted 25 weeks ago

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