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Will North Korea submit an accounting of its nuclear program before July 1, 2008?

Settled as Yes

They've done it!

Background:

Fri May 23, 12:45 PM ET
WASHINGTON - North Korea is extremely close to producing a long-awaited accounting of its shuttered nuclear program, a senior U.S. official said Friday. The documentation would be a major step toward a disarmament deal with the reclusive communist regime.

Although there is no date agreed yet, the documentation is expected within the next month. That would clear the way for a high-stakes meeting as soon as the end of June between the top U.S. and North Korean diplomats, along with the other four nations involved in a deal to put North Korea out of the nuclear weapons business.

<a href='http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080523/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_nkorea'>http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080523/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_nkorea<;/a>


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
64%
No
36%
Activity: H$106,117
Settled as Yes on Thu 26th Jun 11:40am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 10:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 26th Jun 11:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 26th Jun 3:45am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd May 1:23pm PDT by crowe
Suspended Thu 26th Jun 3:50am PDT by mork[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Thu 26th Jun 3:50am PDT by mork[Power User]: N Korea 'hands over nuclear data' http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7474952.stm (market suspended)
Settlement requested Thu 26th Jun 4:50am PDT by orlin: CNN: 'North Korea has submitted its long-awaited nuclear program declaration'

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/06/26/nkorea.nuclear/index.html
Settled as 'Yes' Thu 26th Jun 11:40am PDT by lesley[Admin]: They've done it!

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 10:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 26th Jun 11:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 26th Jun 3:45am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (198)

198 predictions

21 weeks ago
jagermonster0 predicted No (H$100 at 35%)
21 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100 at 65%)
21 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Yes (H$333 at 62%)
21 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Yes (H$6 at 62%)
21 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Yes (H$1,100 at 61%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 markov
What if they submit to the accounting by offering incomplete or inaccurate information? Saying and doing are two different things.
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 Erik
markov>...indeed, especially in the case of North Korea
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 destry[Admin]
The question simply asks will they submit an accounting, it doesn't specify the accounting has to be complete or accurate.
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 Erik
True, destry, but I forsee another spitzering on the horizon. The way hubdub's been at settling things, I'm gonna pass.
posted 25 weeks ago
  5 crowe
destry is correct. any submission of an accounting of their nuclear program to Western governments, something the N.Koreans have never done, will settle this market as YES.
posted 25 weeks ago
  6 markov
Thanks for the clarification crowe. Erik is right. The NK government is as close to universally untrustworthy as is humanly possible.
posted 25 weeks ago
  7 Erik
North Korea said they would, so this should be settled as yes, per the spitzer rule
posted 24 weeks ago
  8 mork[Power User]
N Korea 'hands over nuclear data' http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7474952.stm (market suspended)
posted 21 weeks ago

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