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Before the Convention, will CNN report that Clinton allegedly blackmailed Obama for cash?

Settled as No

Hillary needs the cash... but will she stoop this low? Distantly Related Market: http://www.hubdub.com/m7179/Will_Barack_Obama_pay_off_Hillary_Clintons_election_debts'>http://www.hubdub.com/m7179/Will_Barack_Obama_pay_off_Hillary_Clintons_election_debts<;/a> Re post of previously voided question: <http://www.hubdub.com/m7196/Will_HRC_allegedly_blackmail_BHO_for_CASH_prior_to_the_DNC_Convention> *********************************************************************** In previously voided question, Ryan suggested using one settlement source: "Hi, I think it's just to hard to settle. There will be unnecessary debates on whats MSM is considered MSM. Also the market will cause some problems due to how a report of "blackmail" is defined. Perhaps if we had a market like this but only using one settlement source? I'm just worried that when I settle this based on a news report some users will agree with me and others won't so it'll be hard to settle conclusively. Regards, Ryan Hubdub US Politics Content Editor" **************************************************** ******Please read the Settlement Rules****** ****************************************************


Settlement details: For this to settle as "YES" it must be reported by CNN that Hillary allegedly blackmails Barack for cash.

Any alleged non-cash blackmail(s) would settle as "NO" unless it directly/indirectly results in financial compensation for Hillary
Ex: Gainful employment, financial contributions from a third person/party, etc.

Market refers to DNC Convention

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$11,058
Settled as No on Tue 26th Aug 12:22pm PDT

Suspend date: Sun 24th Aug 1:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 26th Aug 12:22pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 24th Aug 1:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 24th May 4:25pm PDT by fingers_of_fury
Suspended Sun 24th Aug 1:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 26th Aug 11:57am PDT by buckeyeguy: Stated event for "Yes" choice did not occur.
Settled as 'No' Tue 26th Aug 12:22pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 24th Aug 1:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 26th Aug 12:22pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 24th Aug 1:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

12 weeks ago
bency predicted No (H$300 at 93%)
12 weeks ago
alison78 predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
13 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
13 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Yes (H$10 at 9%)
13 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted No (H$10 at 91%)
more

Comments (13)

  1 mrperfkt[Admin]
Interesting question, fingers. It seems like the cash is part of the reason she's still around.
However, in the referenced question

http://www.hubdub.com/m7179/Will_Barack_Obama_pay_off_Hillary_Clintons_election_debts

the comments suggest that it is not uncommon for the opponent to help pay off some of the debt (at least through their donors or the party), so would that be considered blackmail?
posted 25 weeks ago
It would only be considered blackmail if CNN reports it as such.
posted 25 weeks ago
It would only be considered "alleged blackmail" if CNN reports it as such.
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 mork[Power User]
I mean no offence fingers but there are a couple of things I don't like.

I think it is in bad taste to post Ryans email, especially with no reference to the question he is talking about.
The private e-mails from administrators should not be used to reflect hubdub policy since the hubdub policy itself is posted on this web-site.

Secondly, I am glad to say that hubdub has increased the allowable characters of a question to more than 90 (100 last I checked) I hope that the question creators continue to utilize this space before resorting to the language of instant messaging.
posted 25 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
Upon second look I see that fingers has provided a link to the voided question.
Sorry fingers, although I still think it is in bad taste. lol.
I think the starting odds of the original question were off. IMHO I think it very unlikely for Hillary to try to Extort money from Obama.
posted 25 weeks ago
@mork - it wasn't an email from Ryan... it was his note in the public comments section of the voided question. The voided questions odds were higher due to multiple news sources instead of only one, and the likely hood that the alleged blackmail could be just someone's opinion so long as a news source considered it potentially credible enough to report it. This time only one news source so much less likely to happen. If Obama pays off her debts, there will be many claims/conspiracies that she blackmailed him, but CNN isn't likely to report any wacky-nut-job's rants on a blog. If, however, a politician or political activist or community leader (etc.) accuses her of blackmail (with or without calling for an investigation) there is always a chance that someone at CNN would decide to report someone's claims of blackmail, but they would of course call it alleged blackmail unless someone proved it to be true.

It's not terribly uncommon for news to report off the wall claims. One day on NPR they interviewed a person from the UN Security Counsel concerning her claims that the AIDS Virus was designed by white rich men to reduce the African population worldwide. NPR wouldn't give just ANYONE a chance to make those claims, but they decided her credible enough of a person to allow her to make her case.

Another wacky (but possible) example is this: <http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/herbschaffler/gGBTrn> and this <http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/31889.html> I highly doubt that Hillary is using private detectives to dig up dirt on super delegates in order to blackmail them, and I highly doubt that CNN would report this, but if some activist or community leader claimed this to be the case, CNN just might report it as a possibility if the individual makes a halfway coherent case.

So, back to this question: There are already conspiracy theories parallel to what this question asks... for this to settle as YES, CNN needs to report it, but for CNN to report it there would either be evidence uncovered that suggests she blackmails him for cash, or a very public and respected individual accusing her of doing so.
posted 25 weeks ago
...or maybe CNN goes off the deep end and switches to a tabloid format ;-)
posted 25 weeks ago
  8 mork[Power User]
I see what you're getting at fingers.

Although these transactions have been going on probably as long as politics has, I think the question is: Do 10 percent of us believe that the media (CNN in this case) will stoop so low as to report that any post-campaign assistance of Hillary from Obama is based on something sinister as opposed to just a somewhat routine political deal.

I think these contributions are normal when two contendors are from the same political party. The standards of mainstream media seems to be getting ever lower and stranger things have happened.

I feel you have a good market here fingers. And interesting too.
posted 25 weeks ago
  9 mork[Power User]
"post campaign" should not be in my previous post.
posted 25 weeks ago
@ fingers:
do you mean off the deep end a little, or straight to hell like FOXNEWS?
posted 25 weeks ago
Foxnews is frickin' EEEVIL!
posted 25 weeks ago
Hillary Clinton in negotiations for Barack Obama to help pay off her debts
"One source close to a major donor said: “It’s not about the vice-presidency or any other position she might get. It’s about the money – in particular the Clinton family money.” The Obama campaign might have to reach deeply into its well-stocked coffers in order to secure the full support of Mrs Clinton and her husband Bill in the November general election."
(emphasis mine) http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/tobyharnden/june2008/cashtalks.htm

The first user posted comment on this article is particularily interesting:
"Pay to Play with someone elses money?
She stays in the race against overwhelming odds with her own money and now she wants someone else to foot the bill? Amazing.

So she is basically going to blackmail the party; she stays in the race unless the Democratic party pays her bills. Yes, it is all about the Clintons, their greed and selfishness." (Once again, emphasis mine)
posted 24 weeks ago
  13 jake
Even if CNN found information showing this were true they wouldn't run the story. Pro Dem CNN.
posted 13 weeks ago

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