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Will any of the 69 damaged dams in Sichuan, China collapse by 9/1/08?
No news that any of the dams have collapsed
Background:
CHENGDU, China (AP) - Nearly 70 dams scarred by the force of China's most powerful earthquake in three decades were in danger of bursting, rattled again Sunday by one of the strongest aftershocks since the initial disaster.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settlement can be collapse due to structural failure or deliberate demolition.
Settled
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All 69 damaged dams intact and in place on 9/1/08 |
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1-3 dams collapsed |
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4-6 dams collapsed |
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7 or more dams collapsed |
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Suspend date: Sat 16th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 1:27am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 16th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: All 69 damaged dams intact and in place on 9/1/08 : 15%, 1-3 dams collapsed: 40%, 4-6 dams collapsed: 40%, 7 or more dams collapsed: 5%
Action history:
valornhonor 
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: No news that any of the dams have collapsed
Suspend date: Sat 16th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 1:27am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 16th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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116 predictions
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