Created Sun 25th May 4:26pm PDT by 
lv08
All questions » Business » Other » lv08 
Will The CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money Prediction Markets?
Current forecast: 23% chance 
1%
1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 23% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is a regulator of commodity futures and options markets in the U.S. On May 1st they requested public input on the possible regulation of "Event Markets," better known as Prediction Markets (http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2008/pr5493-08.html)
With the exception of the academic Iowa Electronic Market, there are no legal, real-money public Prediction Markets operating in the US. Will this public-input process lead to the licensing and regulation of new markets in Event/Prediction Contracts? Will Intrade, Betfair or other non-US exchanges open US-based operations? Will existing options/futures markets begin offering trading in Event/Prediction Contracts?
Further discussion and background can be found at http://groups.google.com/group/Prediction-Markets
With the exception of the academic Iowa Electronic Market, there are no legal, real-money public Prediction Markets operating in the US. Will this public-input process lead to the licensing and regulation of new markets in Event/Prediction Contracts? Will Intrade, Betfair or other non-US exchanges open US-based operations? Will existing options/futures markets begin offering trading in Event/Prediction Contracts?
Further discussion and background can be found at http://groups.google.com/group/Prediction-Markets
Settlement details:
Legal, public, real-money trading by US citizens/residents on US-based markets (either new or existing) on Event Contracts to actually take place (as opposed to merely being planned) by the end of 2009, as reported by CFTC in public release(s) on their website (http://www.cftc.gov/).
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$5,135
Question suspends in 1 year
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
Created Sun 25th May 4:26pm PDT by lv08
lv08
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (13)
13 predictions
rogerkni
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$2,500 at 78%)
growthy
chrisfmasse
jedc
nigeleccles
infernalmachine
mork![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$100 at 80%)Comments (0)
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score: 10
Morningstar.com 18 hours ago
traded as futures contracts. In forcing them to be traded as futures, it would grant the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sole regulatory jurisdiction. It would also put to rest recent questions over which federal regulator should have oversight
score: 10
Morningstar.com 1 week ago
how U.S. financial regulators will share regulatory responsibilities in the future, the senior Democratic commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Wednesday. Stricter oversight of financial markets is certain, according to Michael
score: 10
Boston Globe 1 week ago
of the proposal.The Fed, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Treasury Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are discussing a memorandum of understanding that lays out the supervision of clearinghouses,
score: 10
RTTNews.com 1 week ago
Walter Lukken, Acting Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, Tuesday stated that the country should scrap its current regulatory framework in favor of three new primary authorities, a Systemic Risk Regulator, a new Market
score: 10
Washington Post 1 week ago
of the proposal. The Fed, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Treasury Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are discussing a memorandum of understanding that lays out the supervision of clearinghouses,
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