Created Sun 25th May 2008 3:26pm PST by 
lv08
lv08 
Will The CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money Prediction Markets?
Background: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is a regulator of commodity futures and options markets in the U.S. On May 1st they requested public input on the possible regulation of "Event Markets," better known as Prediction Markets (http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2008/pr5493-08.html)
With the exception of the academic Iowa Electronic Market, there are no legal, real-money public Prediction Markets operating in the US. Will this public-input process lead to the licensing and regulation of new markets in Event/Prediction Contracts? Will Intrade, Betfair or other non-US exchanges open US-based operations? Will existing options/futures markets begin offering trading in Event/Prediction Contracts?
Further discussion and background can be found at http://groups.google.com/group/Prediction-Markets
With the exception of the academic Iowa Electronic Market, there are no legal, real-money public Prediction Markets operating in the US. Will this public-input process lead to the licensing and regulation of new markets in Event/Prediction Contracts? Will Intrade, Betfair or other non-US exchanges open US-based operations? Will existing options/futures markets begin offering trading in Event/Prediction Contracts?
Further discussion and background can be found at http://groups.google.com/group/Prediction-Markets
Settlement details:Legal, public, real-money trading by US citizens/residents on US-based markets (either new or existing) on Event Contracts to actually take place (as opposed to merely being planned) by the end of 2009, as reported by CFTC in public release(s) on their website (http://www.cftc.gov/).
Forecast history %
| Yes |
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| No |
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Question suspends in 5 weeks
- Activity: H$7,657 |
- Predictions: 15 |
Comments: 0
Get widget!Predictions (15)
frogchop
predicted No (H$2,000 at 80%)
rogerkni
predicted Yes (H$20 at 23%)
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
growthy
predicted No (H$300 at 76%)Comments (0)
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