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Will Alfonso Cano (the new leader of FARC) be captured or killed by July 1, 2008?

Settled as No

No reports of this happening

Background:

FARC (the left leaning terrorist organization in Colombia) has lost several key leaders recently. Manuel Marulanda, the commander and founder of FARC, died Saturday from a heart attack.

Alfonso Cano replaces him as commander, but the Colombian Military says they have him cornered in the southwest Colombian jungle, however FARC spokesmen deny this.

Read more at http://www.eitb24.com/noticia/en/B24_99635

more news linked at http://colombia.notablenotices.com/


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
4%
No
96%
Activity: H$64,689
Settled as No on Wed 2nd Jul 11:40am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 2nd Jul 11:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 26th May 7:57pm PDT by notablenotices[Power User]
Suspended Mon 30th Jun 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 2nd Jul 12:09am PDT by orlin: No reports such events occured.
Settled as 'No' Wed 2nd Jul 11:40am PDT by lesley[Admin]: No reports of this happening

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 2nd Jul 11:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (73)

73 predictions

20 weeks ago
swilson[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
21 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted No (H$20 at 94%)
21 weeks ago
sman1955 predicted No (H$500 at 94%)
22 weeks ago
roosh predicted No (H$290 at 83%)
23 weeks ago
morosofos predicted No (H$40 at 82%)
more

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