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When will Obama wrap up the nomination?
http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/
IT'S OVER!!!!!!
Background:
Prior to the Michigan/Florida decision hs is only 52 delegates shy of the nomination with 86 pledged delegates remaining in the primaries and over 200 undeclared superdelegates.
One of his aides say it will happen next week. What do you think?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Settlement details repeated here:
As reported on CNN when they officially declare Obama as the presumptive nominee.
The final option "He does not have the nomination by June 10" includes the possibility that Hillary wins the nomination prior to that date.
Settled
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June 3 |
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June 4 |
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June 5 |
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June 6 |
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June 7 |
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June 8 |
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June 9 |
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June 10 |
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He does not have the nomination by June 10 |
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Settlement details:
As reported on CNN when they officially declare Obama as the presumptive nominee.
Reminder this settlement is based on CNN's reporting -- the date they declare him the nominee.
Settlement Time will be EST just in case the news breaks near the end of a day.
The final option "He does not have the nomination by June 10" includes the possibility that Hillary wins the nomination prior to that date.
Suspend date: Wed 4th Jun 12:59am PDT
Settlement date: Tue 3rd Jun 6:24pm PDT
Initial likelihoods:
Prior to June 3: 4%, June 3: 20%, June 4: 25%, June 5: 10%, June 6: 10%, June 7: 4%, June 8: 4%, June 9: 4%, June 10: 4%, He does not have the nomination by June 10: 15%
Action history:
jenniandboys 
ryanj: The market will also be settled if Clinton drops out in which case Obama still secures the nomination 
jamalpeter: Ryan, From the Associated Press 1 hour ago: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i23h4XqvR0Ph96aWYyZ4PgI54YCwD912O2UO0 jenniandboys: Suspended pending settlement jenniandboys: yippee! Obama is the presumptive nominee according to CNN. (June 3) (market suspended) ryanj: http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/
IT'S OVER!!!!!!
Settlement details: As reported on CNN when they officially declare Obama as the presumptive nominee. ... read all
Predictions (429)
429 predictions
triathematician
theonecalledmichael
thepeoplegeekComments (22)
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jenniandboys
172 settled, 11 voided
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/the_dnc_will_convene_its.php
I believe someone (Donna Brazil?) said that the meeting is open, so there will be press coverage at the meeting.
It would somewhat surprise me at this point if Hillary dropped out before the final primary. Its been such a long process that giving up only two days before the end would be somehow unsatisfying... esp if she's looking for a vp offer, I would expect her to hang around a little longer.
"Settlement Time will be EST just in case the news breaks near the end of a day."
Is this really EST, or ought it be Eastern Daylight Time?
I did intend the question to suspend tomorrow night.
Obama can't win enough PD to override the SD!
This can only be settled when Hillary says it's over!!!
"This can only be settled when Hillary says it's over!!!"
nahhh ... the Settlement Details say: "As reported on CNN when they officially declare Obama as the presumptive nominee."
"The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day"
In other words, it is their best guess, based on what they think the delegate's final persuasion will be... it is not official yet.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/03/election.democrats/index.html
@tocm - Call him anything they want, even if 100% of SD say they'll vote for BHO at the convention, they are still free to vote anyway they want. That's why they're called SUPER Delegates
Howard Dean hopes that if they pick a side now Hillary will quietly walk away, but if she stays the SD will have to decide the nominee.
CNN projects: Obama clinches nomination
Barack Obama has secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination over Hillary Clinton, according to CNN estimates. The Illinois senator makes history as the first African-American to lead a U.S. major-party ticket.
There are 655 Super Delegates. Obama can only cancel them out if he leads Hillary by 656 PD.
The Super Delegates can PROMISE to vote for Obama or Hillary, but they can still vote however they want to at the convention. If Hillary refuses to bow out, the SD will have to cast their votes at the convention.
"Pledged delegates supporting each candidate are chosen in approximate ratio to their candidate’s share of the vote.
By contrast, the unpledged PLEO delegates (Rule 9.A) are seated without regard to their presidential preferences, solely by virtue of being current or former elected officeholders and party officials. Many of them have chosen to announce endorsements, but they are not bound in any way. They may support any candidate they wish, including one who has dropped out of the presidential race.[4] The other superdelegates, the unpledged add-on delegates (Rule 9.B), who need not be PLEOs, are selected by the state parties after some of the pledged delegates are chosen,[1] but they resemble the unpledged PLEO delegates in being free to vote as they wish." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate
"Well, I'm half the vote I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
Well, I'm half the vote I used to be, half the vote I used to be"
There are currently a total of 823.5 unpledged delegates (known as superdelegates) who are free to vote for any candidate at the convention http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Superdelegates
(Just kidding)
Will refrain from longer, more substantive comments 'cause the future president is about to make a speech :)
Enjoy the speech! :-)
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