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Which sport will receive the most votes for addition to the 2016 Summer Olympics?

Current forecast: Karate (21% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Karate with a probability of 21% (unchanged in last 1 day)

The International Olympic Committee has notified the world governing bodies of seven sports that they will be considered for inclusion into the 2016 Summer Olympics. The sports are baseball and softball, which were dropped from the 2012 program, golf and rugby, which were contested at previous Olympics, karate, roller sports and squash. Unless a current sport is dropped, there is only room for two new sports. In October 2009, the IOC will decide the final schedule for 2016 during its Copenhagen session. http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/25/sports/OLY-New-Olympic-Sports.php'>http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/25/sports/OLY-New-Olympic-Sports.php<;/a>'>http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/25/sports/OLY-New-Olympic-Sports.php<;'>http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/25/sports/OLY-New-Olympic-Sports.php<;;/a>


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Softball
13%
Squash
9%
Rugby
17%
Roller sports
3%
Karate
21%
Golf
13%
Baseball
20%
Tie between two or more sports
5%
Activity: H$2,647
Question suspends in 44 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 2009 12:59am PDT (44 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Softball: 20%, Squash: 5%, Rugby: 20%, Roller sports: 5%, Karate: 5%, Golf: 20%, Baseball: 20%, Tie between two or more sports: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 27th May 3:57pm PDT by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 2009 12:59am PDT (44 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (26)

26 predictions

3 weeks ago
sandjo_123 predicted Rugby (H$30 at 17%)
5 weeks ago
undertow316 predicted Baseball (H$50 at 19%)
8 weeks ago
cheese predicted Squash (H$20 at 5%)
10 weeks ago
charliewarlie predicted Rugby (H$100 at 17%)
12 weeks ago
devilgirl17sg predicted Rugby (H$50 at 16%)
more

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