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Created Tue 27th May 4:45pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

How many ballots will be cast in the Puerto Rican Primary on 6/1/08?

Settled as Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PR

Background:

Puerto Rico has an estimate population of 3,958,128 citizens.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rq.html#Intro


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Less than 250,000 votes
1%
Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes
8%
Between 500,001 - 750,000 votes
20%
More than 750,000 votes
71%
Activity: H$17,651
Settled as Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes on Mon 2nd Jun 3:11pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 31st May 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 2nd Jun 3:11pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st May 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 250,000 votes: 25%, Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes: 25%, Between 500,001 - 750,000 votes: 25%, More than 750,000 votes: 25%

Action history:

Created Tue 27th May 4:45pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Sat 31st May 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 5:56am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: 384,578 with 100% reporting

Between 250,000-500,000

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PR
Settled as 'Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes' Mon 2nd Jun 3:11pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PR

Suspend date: Sat 31st May 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 2nd Jun 3:11pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st May 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (61)

61 predictions

24 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes (H$1 at 8%)
24 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted Less than 250,000 votes (H$1 at 1%)
24 weeks ago
opie predicted More than 750,000 votes (H$20 at 69%)
24 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted Between 250,001 - 500,000 votes (H$5 at 9%)
24 weeks ago
fingers_of_fury predicted Between 500,001 - 750,000 votes (H$1,000 at 90%)
more

Comments (20)

  1 cjg999
Interesting question and here's an interesting related article: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4009945.ece

Is this the first time candidates have campaigned on the island?
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 swilson[Power User]
It's worth noting that while there are 3.9 Million residents, only 2.3 Million are registered voters. Lest you wonder if they could have a regitration drive, that 2.3 Million represents most of the residents who are atleast 18 years of age.
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
if swilson's 2.3 millon number is correct, and my math is correct you only need around 3% of the voters to vote to get more than 750,000. if you use 3.9 you need 5% turnout to get 750,000. if i have that wrong i'm sure some will correct me. looks like jenni is gonna do ok. wtg jenni.
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 swilson[Power User]
diesel, wha??? 750,000 is 32% of 2.3 Million...right? ...and who's Jenni?
posted 25 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
i flunked math swilson, and typing. your correct. on the precdictions jenni was only one showing who bet on over 750,000.
posted 25 weeks ago
  6 jenniandboys[Admin]
@dieseldog - I'd be happy to tutor you in math :) (That's how I spend most evenings)

I cashed out of my 750,000 when swilson posted his comment about the # registered voters. Estimating about 25% turnout is only 575,000. Of course then this morning I read an article that Puerto Rico usually runs near 80% turnout... at which point I buy more 750,000+...
posted 25 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
@jenn..i could use some tutoring in math, but tish is very jealous. maybe trimath could tutor me..hehe
posted 25 weeks ago
  8 swilson[Power User]
Oh, THAT Jenni. 80% perhaps, but that's in elections they know they can effect. I see there's a huge spread between 21%-31% (= to 500k-750k of 2.3M) and your 80% but pundits (http://www.observer.com/2008/puerto-rico-primary-looms-smaller, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080526/ap_ca/puerto_rico_primary) estimate less than 750k or, more vaguely, a low turnout. However, just the fact that the turnout is a topic of conversation on the island is bound to increase turnout. I'm putting my foot down...first instinct and all... I'll stick with under 750. In fact, maybe we can make this a bidding war, I'll consider a dollar for dollar wager on under 750 with Jenni's over 750...
posted 24 weeks ago
  9 jenniandboys[Admin]
Are there that many Jenni's here? :)

I have 750$ in the market already -- are you planning to match that? I'll put another 50$ in just so that I have officially $750+ on 750+

Certainly not confident enough in this market to do much more (besides you only have 111$ in cash now anyway!)
posted 24 weeks ago
  10 swilson[Power User]
I already have $1000 on it - which is about as high as I go unless it's a no-brainer and it's a bargain. You'd have to pony up a little more than $50.
posted 24 weeks ago
  11 jenniandboys[Admin]
Well then, we'll have to sit back and see what happens.. to the victor goes the bragging rights!
posted 24 weeks ago
  12 destry[Admin]
Can I get in on the dollar for dollar wager. I have $2500 on this, I just made the prediction public.
posted 24 weeks ago
  13 Erik
Awhell.....I'm in for a grand
posted 24 weeks ago
  14 cjg999
Wow, I thought I was going for a lot with $600 on under 750K... ready to cash in when 739,238 votes come in. :-)
posted 24 weeks ago
  15 dieseldog
i saw on the news where hillary is hoping for 500,000 to turn out. they would consider that a large turn out. i bet small long time ago for over 750,000. guess we shall see. good luck betters.
posted 24 weeks ago
  16 coolkraft
for $50 to win $431 I figured it was worth a bet
posted 24 weeks ago
  17 jenniandboys[Admin]
CNN estimates turnout will be between 325,000 and 425,000.

Darn it.
posted 24 weeks ago
  18 dieseldog
last i saw it wasn't going over 500,000..looks like not many got this one right.
posted 24 weeks ago
  19 swilson[Power User]
of course. I should have covered my bet with a couple hundred on the 8% to come in under 500k. I may have made up the 1k I lost on 500-750.
posted 24 weeks ago
  20 cjg999
I should have hedged my (500-750K) bet as well...

According to Newsweek it was 384,578, http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/02/clinton-s-popular-vote-claim-close-but-no-cigar.aspx.
posted 24 weeks ago

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