fingers_of_fury 
Will Al Qaeda Call for Use of WMDs on Civilians by May 31, 2008?
No report of tape being released by May 31, 2008.
Background:
Al Qaeda Tape to Call for Use of WMDs
Authorities: New Tape to Urge Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction on Civilians
By PIERRE THOMAS and THERESA COOK
May 27, 2008
Intelligence and law enforcement sources tell ABC News they are expecting al Qaeda operatives will post a new video on the Internet in the next 24 hours, calling for what one source said is "jihadists to use biological, chemical and nuclear weapons to attack the West."
http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/FedCrimes/story?id=4941724
Will Al Qaeda Call for Use of WMDs on Civilians by May 31, 2008?
YES - Al Qaeda releases tape calling for WMDs on Civilians
NO - Al Qaeda releases tape but doesn't call for WMDs on Civilians
OTHER - Any other outcome including no tape released by May 31st.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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YES |
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NO |
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OTHER |
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Suspend date: Sat 31st May 1pm PDT Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 3:47am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st May 1pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: YES: 70%, NO: 10%, OTHER: 20%
Action history:
fingers_of_fury 
orlin: no tape released by May 31st.
"OTHER"
diana: No report of tape being released by May 31, 2008.
Suspend date: Sat 31st May 1pm PDT Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 3:47am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st May 1pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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72 predictions
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