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Will there be a Honor Killing in Germany in June ?

Settled as No

The last killing and attempted killing occurred in May as per news reports on the net

Background:

Currently some lawsuits are in the press about honor killings of young girls and women.
The killings take place basically in a Muslim community of Germany, e.g. in Turkish communities. If a girl violate the rules of the family, like marrying a man not accepted by the family a honor killing may occur.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,555667,00.html'>http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,555667,00.html<;/a>


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$43,639
Settled as No on Tue 1st Jul 9:09am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 9:59pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 1st Jul 9:09am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 9:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 27th May 10:17pm PDT by questmaster
Suspended Sat 31st May 11:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Fri 13th Jun 10:16am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Market suspend date edited to fit the market question
Suspended Mon 30th Jun 9:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 1st Jul 1:35am PDT by orlin: No such reports.
Settled as 'No' Tue 1st Jul 9:09am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: The last killing and attempted killing occurred in May as per news reports on the net

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 9:59pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 1st Jul 9:09am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 9:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (60)

60 predictions

20 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted No (H$1,000 at 93%)
20 weeks ago
questmaster predicted No (H$200 at 91%)
20 weeks ago
gadget666 predicted No (H$300 at 91%)
20 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$1,000 at 91%)
20 weeks ago
myunion predicted No (H$20 at 91%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
An honor killing (which is a disgusting crime), occurs once in a while.
I didn't know the exact statistics but creating the market with 50:50 for one in June implies it would occur every 2 months or 6 times a year. First I thought that would be off, a too high figure. But:
http://www.igfm.de/?id=577
http://www.bka.de/pressemitteilungen/2006/060519_pi_ehrenmorde.pdf (Federal Criminal Police Office)
From 1th January 1996 to 18th Juli 2005 (114 months): 55 crimes with a total of 70 deaths.
posted 25 weeks ago
You have to see the darkfigure honor killings and murderers which are not identified as such. So the possibility of 50:50 is ok i think. Your posted statistics support this to. Thank you for investigating.

p.s. it's a shame that things like this happens in a civilisated nation...
posted 25 weeks ago
Good background info and question.
posted 25 weeks ago
There is a good report about this topic on Spiegel.de

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,558467,00.html

Unfortunally it's in german ;(
posted 23 weeks ago

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