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Will there be more than 200 deaths by tornado in the US in 2008?

Current forecast: 13% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 13% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Death toll from tornadoes in 2008 is already 110; average is 62 for a whole year

2008 fatalities already highest in a decade, with the year less than half over

Numbers of tornadoes also above average in early months of this year

Deadliest year since organized records began is 1953, with 519 deaths

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/05/28/tornado.year/index.html


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
13%
No
87%
Activity: H$122,955
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 28th May 10:40am PDT by bcguelph

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (137)

137 predictions

6 days ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$2,000 at 86%)
2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$4,000 at 85%)
2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$4,000 at 82%)
2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$3,000 at 78%)
2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$3,000 at 75%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 swilson[Power User]
Here's a site to settle this when the time comes:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 rogerkni
Clicking on the link above shows that there have been 120 deaths this year through July.
posted 14 weeks ago
  3 rogerkni
From the link above, the average number of deaths from Aug. thru Dec. in the three years 2005-2007 was 19. So the expectation for 2008 is 139.
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 rogerkni
Deaths this Sept. were two, for a year-to-date total of 123. The average death-count for the remaining three months (for 2005-07) is 16, so this year is still on track toward 139 deaths.
posted 9 weeks ago
  5 rogerkni
Oops--correction to the above. There've been 2 deaths so far in Sept. (There were zero deaths in August.) This puts us about on track for 143 deaths this year, assuming 2 more deaths in Sept. from as-yet unreported casualties from tornadoes spun off from Ike.
posted 9 weeks ago
  6 rogerkni
No additional deaths listed in the six weeks since my comment above.
posted 2 weeks ago

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