Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
My Predictions

Will Firefox 3.0 establish a Guiness World Record of 1.6 million downloads in 24 hrs.?

Settled as Yes

Mozilla aims to make Firefox 3 a record breaker. It wants the release of the next version of its flagship open source browser to be accompanied by a record for the most software downloads in a single 24-hour period.

Download Day - as Mozilla dubs it - will begin the minute Firefox 3 is generally available and continue for 24 hours. Ahead of this release, expected in mid-to-late June, Mozilla has set up a website (spreadfirefox.com/worldrecord). This encourages people to organise Download Day parties, to run around collecting sign-up pledges at their university or place of work, and to place Download Day buttons on their websites.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/28/moz_download_day/

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
89%
No
11%
Activity: H$72,217
Settled as Yes on Thu 3rd Jul 1:22am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Guiness must create the new category and Firefox must achieve the record for minimum 1.6 million downloads to achieve a settlement of `yes`.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (17 weeks to go)

Settlement date: Thu 3rd Jul 1:22am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Wed 28th May 2:11pm PDT by mork[Power User]
Suspended Sun 15th Jun 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Tue 17th Jun 9:51am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Suspended Tue 17th Jun 9:51am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Settlement requested Tue 17th Jun 3:45pm PDT by thepeoplegeekllc: The number has been reached and will far exceed the 1.6 million.

http://www.spreadfirefox.com/en-US/worldrecord
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 17th Jun 3:48pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Clarified Wed 18th Jun 12:39am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Good points - Guinness verification can be lengthy. They clearly achieved the record. Let's way and see if they achieve verification.
Suspended Wed 18th Jun 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Previous action withdrawn Wed 18th Jun 8:58am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: My mistake, market reopened
Settlement requested Fri 20th Jun 7:57pm PDT by mork[Power User]: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7462900.stm
Unsuspended Sat 21st Jun 4:50am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Unsuspended so the remaining open part of the question (will Guinness establish the record) can be traded
Suspended Wed 2nd Jul 7:20pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 2nd Jul 7:20pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: record set

http://www.spreadfirefox.com/en-US/worldrecord/ (market suspended)
Settled as 'Yes' Thu 3rd Jul 1:22am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 

Predictions (257)

257 predictions

8 weeks ago
thelee predicted Yes (H$39 at 89%)
8 weeks ago
hkbruvold predicted Yes (H$100 at 89%)
8 weeks ago
hkbruvold predicted Yes (H$100 at 89%)
8 weeks ago
lewisdotcom predicted Yes (H$86 at 89%)
8 weeks ago
tedwinder predicted Yes (H$100 at 89%)
more

Comments (28)

  1 markov
I'd wager "YES" on this question but I don't want to hold my breath waiting for Guiness to create a new category.
posted 13 weeks ago
lol, how lame. I would never have a party to further the aims of a huge corporation and get nothing in return!
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 frank2877
LOL! Mozilla is giving you Firefox 3 for free.
posted 13 weeks ago
  4 markov
I use the latest FireFox 2 version and it kicks ass. I'll be switching to 3 once I know it's stable. If everyone knew how good FireFox is they would stop using Internet Explorer unless they had to.
posted 13 weeks ago
But markov, you don't want to further the aims of a huge corporation. I mean, they're all corporationey and stuff.
posted 13 weeks ago
  6 mork[Power User]
I find 'open-source' to be a business model worth supporting.
I have been using Firefox the last half year or so and still finding features and add-ons that impress me.
Maybe there's something I don't realize but I feel a strong sense of anti-corporation satisfaction by supporting open-source software.
I bought a cheap laptop with Vista on it around christmas and it would occasionally crash on IE7 out of the box. That's what led me to seek and find Mozilla Firefox.

Thanks Microsoft.
posted 13 weeks ago
  7 markov
Funny, tme!

mork: My thoughts exactly. Microsoft is the best advertising open source software could ask for.
posted 13 weeks ago
  8 pepe
How many users will click on the button "new version 3 available" ? LOL
posted 12 weeks ago
"LOL! Mozilla is giving you Firefox 3 for free."

The thing is, I have no loyalty to them anyways. I love Firefox 2, I really do, especially since I run it off my flash drive and take my add-ons and bookmarks with me to every computer in the school. But if someone else makes a better browser I'm using it, it's that simple, so I'm not going to help FF get a huge market share out of the gate. If the product is as good as we expect they will get it anyways, and if not a new and better browser wont have to work so hard to gain the support it deserves.

So until they pay me, I'm not going to be so partisan about my browser ;)
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 gonzalezbr
my points here:
spreadfirefox.com has less than 1,3kk ppl signed to receive the email about ff3
ff3 is going out supposedly on a week(17)
so it does needs more dls than ppl signed up(the ppl signed up are "guaranteed"), AND they need the guiness to create a world record for "most downloads in 24h"
dont think its gonna happen =p
posted 11 weeks ago
  11 kida
"If everyone knew how good FireFox is they would stop using Internet Explorer unless they had to." I agree.
posted 11 weeks ago
  12 gonzalezbr
i agree too :)
but thats not the point imo - its ok, everybody uses firefox
a lot of ppl will still use firefox2 on the first 24h of release of ff3
AND we need guiness to create a new category, for downloads =x
posted 11 weeks ago
  13 shojun
Someone made a comment about not supporting Firefox - just using the best browser. That's such an apathetic view that it's a disgrace. Here we are mostly in agreement that Mozilla is making the best features and increasing speed and so on. Surely more support is going to help - it's open source and they have hundreds of volunteer coders and testers working on it day and night for the love of it (yes they have some paid employees too). You have three choices:
1) support another company - but why support a company that isn't "made by the people for the people", and produces an inferior product
2) support no one and just take whatever appears. Yes you get to use the best browser but it's a selfish view and if we all did that there'd be no Mozilla
2) support Mozilla for producing such fine products. Their brand improves, name recognition spreads, and more and more people help out to produce something simply amazing that couldn't be done in a regular company structure.

But hey, it's your choice.
posted 11 weeks ago
  14 gingerboi
well.. the new version supposedly burns less memory, but I've got seven tabs open and it's using up 153,568K of memory. I bet that's Hubdub using all the memory for their silly "pundit watch" thing. But Shojun, good to see that's their still some blindly loyal Mozilla fans out there. Never let reality get in the way of the dream eh? Apparently Walt Disney is still on ice, waiting for a decent version of Mozilla. Hold on! It's down to 146K. I take it all back. Now it's at 150K.. is nothing dependable?
posted 11 weeks ago
  15 gingerboi
Sorry, I meant Firefox of course.. all this branding...
posted 11 weeks ago
  16 shojun
I wouldn't call myself blindly loyal - I install every new version of every browser - IE, Opera, etc to try them out. But when you've got a successful community building a great product, well, I can't see much else that could be worth supporting more. Unless maybe Google developed a browser, that could be interesting ;)

Kinda funny how the Mozilla browser faded into the background when Firefox came along.

Interesting that you're burning so much memory - that's unusual. Any flash etc on those pages? Video? What plugins do you have?
posted 11 weeks ago
  17 shojun
And they're not without their problems either, security bugs, exploits and the like - but the time to fix is so much better as you have a dedicated community for those. As opposed to an office worker who gets a bug report and goes "oh I'll look at this on Monday".

I'm not suggesting we all lay down our tools and start making stuff for free, but it's great that a lot of people's spare time "hobby" as such has evolved into this.

/sorry, it's Friday, I get to spout lots of drivel ;)
posted 11 weeks ago
  18 kruijs[Power User]
cool, a discussion on topic with the question. not with hudbub rules or superusers.
thanks everyone in here :)
posted 11 weeks ago
  20 coolkraft
I would like to try firefox but does my antivirus software transfer to that? not the windows anti virus but my own....
posted 10 weeks ago
  21 coolkraft
ok went to their site and i see my question has been answered
posted 10 weeks ago
http://www.spreadfirefox.com/en-US/worldrecord
The number of downloads has been reached.
posted 10 weeks ago
  23 ltmod
Yes, but did Guiness create a new category?? I believe both had to be true, the download number + Guiness category for the question to settle as yes.
posted 10 weeks ago
  24 swilson[Power User]
ltmod, I flagged this last night for the same reason - I've not gotten a response.
posted 10 weeks ago
  25 swilson[Power User]
I take that back, Nigel did clarify in the settlements section. He says we should wait for Guiness to establish the category. I'd feel a lot better if this market was re-established - even if it was suspended as the suspend date has been reached. I'd be a little miffed that I lost 1K without the opportunity to pull it after they reached the 1.6M but before Guiness approved it but that would be more palatable than having it settled before the criteria for settlement were obtained.
posted 10 weeks ago
That will teach you for making such a stupid prediction then.
posted 10 weeks ago
Unsuspended so the remaining open part of the question (will Guinness establish the record) can be traded
posted 10 weeks ago
  28 mork[Power User]

Please log in or join to post a comment.

New to Hubdub?

Hubdub lets you play at predicting the outcomes of real running news questions

Start playing or learn more