Created Wed 28th May 7:55pm PDT by

Will there be floods in the region due to the Tangjiashan lake burst in China by the 30th May?

Settled as No

Nearly 160,000 people were evacuated downstream from an unstable earthquake-created lake in central China, while the government warned Wednesday that rebuilding after the disaster would be "arduous."

The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 sent dirt and rocks tumbling into valleys, blocking rivers that have developed into fast-rising lakes.

Some 158,000 people have been evacuated and dozens of villages emptied in case the newly formed Tangjiashan lake bursts before soldiers and engineers can drain it, the official China Daily said Wednesday....AP
Do you think the lake will burst causing floods in the region by 30th May?

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Yes

10%

90%

Activity: H$36,788

Settled as No on Fri 30th May 2:54pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 31st May 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 30th May 2:54pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 30th May 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 28th May 7:55pm PDT by

the_professor

Settlement requested Fri 30th May 2:50pm PDT by

orlin: According to rules (2.2.3 Time, Time Zones and Geography - 3), "If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified."
As nothing is specified, chinese local time must apply, which is GMT+8 hours. In China now is 6 AM on 31 May and there is no floods at Tangjiashan.

Answer is NO.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSWRI74404620080530

Settled as 'No' Fri 30th May 2:54pm PDT by