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Will a ransom be paid by June 7th for any of the 3 ships hijacked by pirates this week?

Settled as No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08

No reports of any ransoms being paid, will resettle if new news is made available

Background:

A Dutch ship was hijacked on Sunday....
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) -- Somali officials say a hijacked Dutch ship has arrived in a northern Somali port two days after it was boarded by pirates. The foreign minister of the semiautonomous region of Puntland says the MV Amiya Scan has arrived in the coastal town of Bargal on Wednesday.
Four Russians and five Filipinos are on board as well as an unknown number of pirates.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/05/28/somalia.pirates.ap/index.html?iref=newssearch

Two more ships hijacked Wed...
(CNN) -- Two cargo ships have been hijacked in the Gulf of Aden, a Kenyan maritime official said Thursday.
"The ill-fated vessels under captivity are MV Lehmann and MV Arean," Andrew Mwangura of the Kenyan Seafarers Association said.
The ships were taken Wednesday in "roughly the same" area where the Dutch-owned MV Amiya Scan was hijacked Sunday, he said.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/05/29/somalia.pirates/index.html?iref=newssearch

There have been 24 attacks on ships near the Somali coast and in the Gulf of Aden this year, said Capt. Pottengal Mukundan, director of the International Maritime Bureau, which tracks pirate attacks.
Of those 24, he said, seven have been successful hijackings.
In the seven cases this year, most were resolved with a ransom payment, Mody said, adding that the pirates in Somalia typically treat the crews on the hijacked ships well.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/05/27/dutch.pirates/index.html?iref=newssearch


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08
95%
Ransom is paid for 1 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08
4%
Ransom is paid for 2 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08
0%
Ransom is paid 3 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08
0%
Activity: H$20,338
Settled as No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08 on Thu 12th Jun 12:24pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 6th Jun 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 12th Jun 12:24pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 6th Jun 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08: 50%, Ransom is paid for 1 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08: 25%, Ransom is paid for 2 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08: 20%, Ransom is paid 3 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 29th May 10:59am PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]
Suspended Fri 6th Jun 8:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 8th Jun 8:31am PDT by elly: There are no reports for such an event
Settlement requested Thu 12th Jun 11:35am PDT by mork[Power User]: I found a report of a ship rescued by Canadians and two ships being held for $1M ransom. No reports of a ransom being paid.
Settled as 'No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08' Thu 12th Jun 12:24pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: No reports of any ransoms being paid, will resettle if new news is made available

Suspend date: Fri 6th Jun 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 12th Jun 12:24pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 6th Jun 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (47)

47 predictions

23 weeks ago
myunion predicted No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08 (H$20 at 95%)
23 weeks ago
stephmoreland predicted No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08 (H$20 at 95%)
24 weeks ago
johnd predicted Ransom is paid for 1 of the 3 ships by 6/7/08 (H$50 at 4%)
24 weeks ago
opie predicted No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08 (H$100 at 96%)
24 weeks ago
abbey predicted No ransom is paid for any of the 3 ships by 6/7/08 (H$20 at 96%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 markov
The vast majority of these hijackings could be easily stopped with a very small investment in weapons. I must assume that either some international law regarding armaments on civilian vessels is unnecessarily putting these ships in jeopardy or the owners of the ships are too stupid to put an end to the problem. Given the weapons the pirates are using a single .50 caliber machine gun on deck would probably stop all of them. If that didn't work a 30mm mini-gun would definitely do the trick. Both weapons have enough range and firepower to reach out and touch the bad guys before they can do much, if any, harm to the ship. If the concern is that the someone might mis-identify a non-threatening ship as being a pirate vessel they could always wait until they show their weapons and then light them up first from a concealed location on the ship. Nothing is foolproof but when 9 out of 10 pirate vessels fail to return to port I suspect the enthusiasm for piracy in the area will be greatly diminished.
posted 25 weeks ago
Pirate attacks are more common than most people think. I agree markov, a few merchant marines on each ship with automatic weapons would solve the problem. Now they only use acoustic deterrents. Not quite as effective as a .50 cal. or a 30mm.
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 lesley[Admin]
It's been pointed out that in the case of a ransom being paid, the media may not be permitted to report on it. If that is the case, then this will have to be settled as no.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 24 weeks ago
  4 markov
That would make sense. By not reporting a ransom being paid it may not look as profitable to others. I still think the best deterrent would be a few pirates floating up on shore.
posted 24 weeks ago
  5 mrperfkt[Admin]
I started to put "will it be reported that a ransom is paid," but that was too long to fit in the limited text...but I agree with the reporting part.
posted 24 weeks ago

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