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Will Tzipi Livni become the Prime Minister of Israel during 2008?

Current forecast: 8% chance 74%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 8% likely to happen (down 74% in last 1 day)

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who on Thursday challenged the Kadima party leadership of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, under investigation for alleged corruption, is seen as as rising political star and a contender to be its second woman leader.
The 49-year-old lawyer, who defied her staunch nationalist background to become the number two in government and in the centrist Kadima, is today the most popular member of government.

She is seen as the strongest candidate to succeed Olmert as Kadima's head and enjoys high public approval ratings, though she still trails right-wing Likud party chief Benjamin Netanyahu in polls as a potential premier.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
8%
No
92%
Activity: H$114,858
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 29th May 6:04pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Settlement requested Thu 18th Sep 9:20pm PDT by curios: election result
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/18/2367561.htm

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (104)

104 predictions

17 hours ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted No (H$5 at 92%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted No (H$3,000 at 87%)
3 weeks ago
lemmycaution predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
3 weeks ago
mr_short predicted No (H$1,000 at 77%)
4 weeks ago
eangela3of5 predicted No (H$50 at 79%)
more

Comments (12)

reposted from incorrect "Politics" to correct "World".
posted 26 weeks ago
I'm glad it's no longer politically incorrect ;-)
posted 26 weeks ago
  3 lesley[Admin]
I have amended the suspend date to fall within 7 days of settlement as per the Hubdub rules.

Hope that's ok with y'all.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 23 weeks ago
She is on her way there!

Exit polls say Tzipi Livni wins big in Kadima primary http://www.jewishjournal.com/israel/article/exit_polls_say_tzipi_livni_wins_big_in_kadima_primary_20080917/
posted 10 weeks ago
From the article:

"If Livni fails to assemble a coalition, Israel will hold new general elections for Knesset and prime minister."
posted 10 weeks ago
  6 faisal
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE49Q1IK20081027

"Two newspaper surveys published a day after Livni abandoned her efforts to forge a new coalition government and recommended to the president that he call a parliamentary election showed Kadima just beating Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud -- a reversal of the results forecast in previous polls, published in August."
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 faisal
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1032205.html

"Spokeswoman Hila Mizrachi said elections have been tentatively set for February 10."
posted 4 weeks ago
  8 curios
as this question is know been outdated it should be voided or rest for 2009'i had already flagged it bot have had NO reply
posted 6 days ago
  9 tisha[Admin]
I'm looking into it curios. Please be patient.
posted 6 days ago
As there are over 100 predictions on this market, it would seem to change the structure of the question to extend the suspension date, if Tzipi for any reason became PM before the end of the year; 12/31/08, then this will settle for yes, otherwise, any other outcome, should be a No. When I created this market way back in May I suspected it would be settled by the end of the year, but it looks like it likely will not.
posted 4 days ago
  11 curios
@valornhonor- i did ask you to look into this as the result was known some time ago that there would be a february 2009 election yes there are over 100 predictions but how many where after the known fact that that she was unable to form a joint party government?
posted 3 days ago
  12 curios
@Tisha
i have been patient, still waiting?
posted 19 hours ago

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