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Will Mynamar junta use Suu Kyi's potential release as bargaining chip 4 more intl aid during June?

Settled as No

No reports of this happening

Background:

1.) Many countries have tried, unsuccesfully to provide aid to Mynamar/Burma but distribution has been impeded by military rulers. 2.) Opposition politician Suu Kyi's detention was just extended after already being imobile for five years. 3.) Mynamar will become increasingly desperate, they have already transitioned from shock, denial, they are now in anger and the next stage of grief is negotiation. 4.) Ruling officials have limited, in anything, to bargain with but a relaxation of the conditions Aung San Suu Kyi is subjected to is something that many countries would welcome as a tangible demonstration of human rights improvements.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
3%
No
97%
Activity: H$31,875
Settled as No on Tue 1st Jul 6:10am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 1st Jul 6:10am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 29th May 11:07pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 1st Jul 1:34am PDT by orlin: No such reports.
Settled as 'No' Tue 1st Jul 6:10am PDT by lesley[Admin]: No reports of this happening

Suspend date: Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 1st Jul 6:10am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (19)

19 predictions

22 weeks ago
bobbyd predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
22 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted No (H$20 at 97%)
22 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted Yes (H$1 at 6%)
23 weeks ago
sman1955 predicted No (H$500 at 91%)
23 weeks ago
guruzilla predicted No (H$20 at 91%)
more

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