Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
      ForumsNew!
My Predictions

Will Hubdub stop the usage of "super users" by Dec 30th?

Current forecast: 15% chance 14%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 15% likely to happen (down 14% in last 1 day)

With many people thinking that some "super users" are letting the power go to their head will Hubdub stop using this option?
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Yes
15%
No
85%
Activity: H$50,658
Question suspends in 11 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (11 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (138)

138 predictions

3 days ago
swilson[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 87%)
2 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted No (H$5 at 84%)

Comments (28)

I'm assuming for this market, even if they are called by another name, but perform the same functions, this will settle as yes at the time of closing...
posted 19 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Will this settle at suspend date? Further clarification would be nice.
If you want to start a conversation regarding super users and what you perceive as abuse, then you should raise the issue on getsatisfaction.
posted 19 weeks ago
I sincerely hope the answer to this question is 'no'. I like to think it has been helpful to have people who have more time to spend on the site with the power to help out a bit.

I understand that you are upset Ryan, but I'm not sure this market will stand. You have a suspend date, but no settle by date (we can't assume they are the same). Also, Hubdub has been quite clear about their intention to use users as part of settlement -- even if they decide to demote those of us currently wearing the badge, they will choose more... so the initial odds are somewhat questionable.

Because of an obvious conflict of interest though, I have not suspended the market. I flagged it for an admin to take a look at. If they haven't clarified by the 12 hour point, I intend to suspend until they can.
posted 19 weeks ago
(and yet another comment comes in while i am composing.. must type faster!!)
posted 19 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
Jenni - I have contacted Ryan (the category editor) and he is going to take a look. I chose to not suspend as well, even though the points you raised are valid. I haven't gotten any negative feedback from anyone about the super user functions we have performed other than a few compliments. I know I am always hesitant to suspend a market without clear reason.
posted 19 weeks ago
  6 ryanb37
Yes it should settle at the suspend date and jenni you are very helpful sorry about the settle date but it should settle at the suspend time
posted 19 weeks ago
  7 ryanb37
And i am not upset i just like causing a discussion And it worked. I am kinda like that
posted 19 weeks ago
  8 Erik
Indeed ryan...I like your point. And, I hope i get a pay-out on this.
posted 19 weeks ago
  9 Erik
jenni> "...I'm not sure this market will stand. You have a suspend date, but no settle by date (we can't assume they are the same)."
Countless markets are active that fit this role. IE: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_any_nuclear_materials_from_US_inventory_be_discovered_to_be_lost_or_misplaced_4975
Surely you remember.
posted 19 weeks ago
  10 kruijs[Power User]
Question Guidelines, Section 2.2.4 Suspension

The Suspend date and time should not be used as a guide as to when the question will be settled. E.g. If the question is "Who will Edwards endorse?" and the suspend date is February 5th then the question should not be interpreted as "Who will Edwards endorse by February 5th?"

But nevertheless, Erik, right there have been situations where admins do not follow that rule. But the rules are still Beta, just as the site is. So changes to the rules were made in the past, and will be made in the future.
posted 19 weeks ago
  11 kruijs[Power User]
Oh, and to the question:
If hubdub decides to no longer use the Super Users, it would be fine to me. The way we can interact with the community is rather restricted. Which is a wise decision, I think. I'm not sure if giving the Super User more responsibilities (and abilities) will work out as the'd like (or expected).
posted 19 weeks ago
Here's a recent market created by an Admin, without a Settlement Date:
"If Obama wins the presidency, will Clinton ever run for the White House again?"

<http://www.hubdub.com/m7392/If_Obama_wins_the_presidency_will_Clinton_ever_run_for_the_White_House_again>

I think it can be tricky to know when a Suspend Date and/or a Settlement Date are necessary.

And then there's ... "Suspend dates should not be set for any date greater than 7 days in advance of the expected settlement date."
posted 19 weeks ago
Yeah, we're letting the power go to our heads! In the past week I've suspended one question. I now refuse to participate in markets in which there is the slightest possibility of ambiguity in order to to avoid conflicts of interest. So who are all these people who think we're abusing our (limited) powers? I bet they're dead people who are registered to vote in Chicago.
posted 19 weeks ago
  14 sdchargers[Power User]
I hope the superusers remain in place, and in future will need more of them. That would be a sign that hubdub is growing and they need more eyes and ears on the groud monitoring things. I can't imagine the time and effort the Mods have to put in keeping this site running as smoothly as it does. The fact that they added this option to experienced Hubdubbers with a deep knowledge of the game is a good sign. It wasnt added to just give some people more power, rather to keep up with the growth of hubdub. Sure, there will still be some disagreements with some of the decisions superusers make, but 99% of the time they will get it right. I am all for the superuser addition to hubdub.
posted 19 weeks ago
Heh, I just read this whole thread and was amused that my super-user colleague Jenni thinks the admins only created super-users from folks who could spend. "more time", on the site. I wish that were the case! I even warned them that I probably wouldn't have enough time to thoroughly "police" the site ... but I devote most of my lunch hour to investigating HubDub questions.

LOL,
AAA
posted 19 weeks ago
  16 stephen
super users better be here to stay
they help with faster settlements and resolving of flagged questions
and so far... to my knowledge, there have been 000000 incidents caused by super users
posted 19 weeks ago
  17 ryanb37
http://www.hubdub.com/m8288/What_will_be_the_age_of_the_next_celebrity_to_die#newcomment
I posted this and a super user said I gave some arguement and i never talked to that superuser so theres an
example of them making stuff up and not researching things before usage of their power. I would say that is letting
it go to their head
posted 18 weeks ago
  18 mork[Power User]
@ryanb37
The link you just provided does not indicate a super user making things up.
As jenni explains to you, anaverageamerican made a mistake. She also asked you to cut him some slack.
You've been informed that he made a mistake, yet now you accuse him of making things up.
It is clearly you that is making things up.
posted 18 weeks ago
  19 gingerboi
I can only reference the Lion King:

Mufasa: Everything you see exists together in a delicate balance. As king, you need to understand that balance and respect all the creatures, from the crawling ant to the leaping antelope.
Young Simba: But, Dad, don't we eat the antelope?
Mufasa: Yes, Simba, but let me explain. When we die, our bodies become the grass, and the antelope eat the grass. And so we are all connnected in the great Circle of Life.

I hope this clears everything up concerning power users.
posted 18 weeks ago
@anaverageamerican:
i think having a superhero who doesn't spend a lot of time on the site is a GOOD idea, a kind of objective eye for things...

it's a bird, it's a plane, no it's anaverageamerican!!! and he's come to save us from excessive reclarifications!
posted 18 weeks ago
  21 gingerboi
Sorry, I mean "super users" who have magical powers and the ability to transform into animals. Like flies and bandicoots, when they want to look at stuff, like an Iranian nuclear power plant document on Bush's desk and stuff like that and report back to us.Or maybe Barney the dog, who is a totally mathematical dude (and totally desirable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHyJH1yGKZY I say form a League of Super Power Users (LoF-POO) to fix these kind of petty disputes about super powers in the future. And they can report to the Super League of Hubdub (SLOH SETTLEMENT) which is a kind of god-like body based in Edinburgh and staffed by unemployed people who can't get a normal job outside of running a website.
posted 18 weeks ago
  22 owl1
As long as all the Superusers come out for Obama by June 5th, I'm all for them.
posted 18 weeks ago
@owl1:
nice sentiment, but i'm afraid the superheroes were not asked their political affiliation before being granted their special abilities...as long as they're not as fanatical as that idiot ironman288....
posted 18 weeks ago
ooh, gingerboi, i think that you have insulted the hubgods.... may ryan and nigel have mercy on your hubsoul...
posted 18 weeks ago
  25 owl1
That was just a pun on tne superdelegates, haha.
posted 18 weeks ago
  26 owl1
the
posted 18 weeks ago
ahhh, nice one...
posted 18 weeks ago
i would like to commend the superheroes... on my leaderboard, they far out score admins.... Good job!!! one more for the yanks!
posted 17 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

New to Hubdub?

Hubdub lets you play at predicting the outcomes of real running news questions

Start playing or learn more