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When will another U.S. or Canadian construction site suffer from another 'tower crane' collapse?

Current forecast: Later or Never (77% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Later or Never with a probability of 77% (up 1% in last 1 day)

USA Today - May 30,'08
Two construction workers died and one was critically injured after a construction crane collapsed Friday morning on New York's Upper East Side, smashing into a 23-story apartment building before crashing onto the street below.

It was the second deadly crane accident in 2½ months in the city, which is undergoing a building boom. In March, seven people were killed in a crane accident.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/2008-05-30-crane-newyork_N.htm
 
Forecast history, %
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May/June 08
3%
July 08
5%
August 08
4%
September 08
11%
Later or Never
77%
Activity: H$31,141
Question suspends in 3 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 24th Sep 12:59am PDT (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: May/June 08: 20%, July 08: 20%, August 08: 20%, September 08: 20%, Later or Never: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 30th May 2:20pm PDT by mork[Power User]
Suspended Sat 31st May 5:13pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sat 31st May 5:13pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,361175,00.html

pretty sure it's a 'tower crane' as they are supposedly the biggest and can carry the most, and a crane that was 'the biggest' and could 'carry the most' was reported to have been moved there. (market suspended)
Previous action withdrawn Sun 1st Jun 2:05pm PDT by lesley[Admin]: This was not a "tower crane". The market has been reopened and will only settle if/when a news story specifically refers to a "tower crane" collapsing.
Settlement requested Fri 18th Jul 1:35pm PDT by cognos[Power User]: Please see:

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080718_tnt_crane.6a3eeddc.html
Suspended Fri 18th Jul 2:17pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user:

Suspended pending review of settlement link (breaking news) -- and while awaiting news updates.

It is important that this accident be referred to as a TOWER crane accident.


Unsuspended Sat 19th Jul 1:48am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Crane that recently collapsed was not a tower crane
Settlement requested Thu 24th Jul 4:42pm PDT by quorny: http://www.newsweek.com/id/148610
Clarified Thu 24th Jul 11:59pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Settlement request was for a portable crane, not a tower crane
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (144)

144 predictions

4 days ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted September 08 (H$100 at 12%)
5 days ago
cookietime predicted Later or Never (H$300 at 61%)
5 days ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted September 08 (H$63 at 13%)
2 weeks ago
hippyboomer predicted Later or Never (H$20 at 61%)
2 weeks ago
drachenstein predicted Later or Never (H$100 at 61%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 epicur
This settled collapse is not a "tower crane." Just because it is one of the biggest cranes doesn't make it a tower crane. A tower crane works on towers. They are at the top of towers or on top of something next to a tower. Tower cranes are worrying people lately because non workers walk under them everyday, but they don't collapse often. Regular large cranes, on the other hand, collapse all the time. I supervise (as a surveyor) the loading and unloading of bulk product at the port of New Orleans. We have a crane collapse (usually the boom on the older kind that we are gradually replacing) every few months here alone (with injury and occasional fatalities). Now multiply that with every other port in the U.S. / Canada and this happens every month. This should have been settled only if a "TOWER CRANE" collapsed.
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Good points made...wasn't that aware of the differences...although common sense does dictate.

Were the accidents referred to in the question involving tower cranes, or 'regular large cranes' as Epicur referred to.

Needs to have settlements issues cleared pretty soon

BTW Epicur...only about 70 miles from ya here in Gulfport
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 mork[Power User]
@Bayoubear.
Epicur's comment was made 5weeks ago when this question was settled falsely.
The question was re-opened due to epicurs valid arguement which I entirely agree with.
This question refers to "Tower Cranes" which are often used for the construction of hi-rise buildings.
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 cognos[Power User]
Ok. Sorry for the fast post.
This is probably NOT a "Tower Crane". It was being used to construct a part of a refinery, AND althought it was a giant crane (took two months to construct on site), it WAS constructed "on the ground".
posted 6 weeks ago
yeah, they are calling it the "largest mobile crane in the nation", so that would probably not be a tower crane. Also, from the video, it doesn't appear to be a tower crane configuration.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5895512.html

They brought it in for some maintanence.
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 bayoubear[Admin]
So perhaps another question should be formed related to any construction and/or mobile cranes...but like Epicur said, those accidents happen fairly often.
posted 5 weeks ago
This market has been re-opened.
posted 5 weeks ago
  9 cognos[Power User]
amazing though, the Houston Crane (that collapsed yesterday) was capable of lifting 1,000,000 pounds.
posted 5 weeks ago

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