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Who will get the 'Thirty Meter Telescope'?

Current forecast: Chile (61% chance4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Chile with a probability of 61% (down 4% in last 1 day)

After completing a rigorous, detailed worldwide survey of candidate astronomical sites for the Thirty-Meter Telescope, the TMT Observatory Corporation board of directors is now considering two optional sites, one in each hemisphere. The first site is Cerro Armazones, which lies in Chile's Atacama Desert, and the second site is Mauna Kea on Hawaii Island.

http://www.tfot.info/pod/1186/2-candidates-sites-for-a-30m-telescope.html


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Chile
61%
Hawaii
39%
Activity: H$6,533
Question suspends in 27 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 2009 12:59am PDT (27 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Chile: 50%, Hawaii: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 30th May 3:17pm PDT by mork[Power User]

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 2009 12:59am PDT (27 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (44)

44 predictions

1 week ago
vidal1 predicted Chile (H$500 at 63%)
2 weeks ago
oppugner predicted Chile (H$100 at 61%)
2 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Chile (H$100 at 60%)
8 weeks ago
freeze predicted Chile (H$20 at 60%)
10 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted Hawaii (H$500 at 37%)
more

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