What will be the age of the next celebrity to die?
Market voided, to much confusion around how the market operated. But I see now that the People one is working out so well done.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Voided
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0-20 |
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21-30 |
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31-40 |
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41-50 |
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51-60 |
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61-70 |
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71-80 |
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81-90 |
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90-OLDER |
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Suspend date: Sat 31st Jan 2009 7:59am PST (8 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: 0-20: 5%, 21-30: 10%, 31-40: 5%, 41-50: 5%, 51-60: 10%, 61-70: 15%, 71-80: 20%, 81-90: 20%, 90-OLDER: 10%
Action history:
Yves: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/06/01/laurent.obit.ap/index.html
http://www.people.com/people/news/0,,,00.html
Suspend date: Sat 31st Jan 2009 7:59am PST (8 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (9)
9 predictions
Comments (33)
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New in Entertainment » Celebrities




And if it were not difficult enough to determine WHO is a celebrity, how would it be possible through newspaper reports to determine which of possibly hundreds of celebrities who died today died first? (So that we could try to determine their age...)
And that only refers to "national celebrities"...What about local celebrities? The problems with the word "celebrity" or "someone with fame" are endless...
How about something like: At least 4 of these 5 major newssources has to cover the story (NBC, CBS, FOX, CNN, ABC)
I agree the settlement needs a little tightening though.
theres an example of a super user using their power incorectly
It's not a bad question it's just a pain to define celebrity. I really can't think of how to do it.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
How about something like: At least 4 of these 5 major newssources have to cover the story (NBC, CBS, FOX, CNN, ABC)
@ryanb37 - AAA just made a simple mistake, I hope you can cut him a little slack. We're all here to have fun.
Perhaps the author had an idea something like: ANYONE HONORED to walk down a red carpet. But that's not going to "cut it" either. The Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, George Bush, and Senator Craig will all be delighted...as well as thousands of grads this year, numerous participants in church services, official visitors to Buckingham Palace, etc. The problem is that we honor numerous people all the time, and that most of us have probably been a celebrity at some time in our lives under certain circumstances.
Until this question becomes much more specific, it doesn't stand a chance. And many celebrities in many groups have already passed away since the formation of this question.
'major motion picture leading or supporting actor'.
'professional sports figure'.
'major TV network news anchor'
The problem with this question is that everybody has local celebrities that are not well known elsewhere. I'm certain my local weather lady gets much attention most everywhere she goes but it wouldn't be fair for me to ask this question to settle if, god forbid, something happened to her.
I hope ryanb37 can clarify this question before it requires a void.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
I doubt anyone complains when she stands in the middle blocking the weather stats behind her
how bout we say the next person on the site list that dies?
http://my.att.net/s/editorial.dll?pnum=1&bfromind=7406&eeid=5907100&_sitecat=1505&dcatid=0&eetype=article&render=y&ac=0&ck=&ch=ne&rg=blsadstrgt&_lid=332&_lnm=tg+ne+topnews&ck=
OTOH, there are a lot of Mexicans who consider Felipe Calderon a celebrity.
While this has been suspended, Yves St Laurent has died at 71. If this market had been open, I believe this would have settled the market. Perhaps we should settle this and encourage Ryan to post another with stricter settlement requirements (i.e. any death reported on People.com)
Yves: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/06/01/laurent.obit.ap/index.html
http://www.people.com/people/news/0,,,00.html
I agree with anaverageamerican that YSL might not be satisfactory to Kathmandu, but -- wait for it -- the Royal Family of Nepal could be making a speedy departure this week with a change of government. But Alas! THAT won't be red carpet treatment in Las Vegas...
Without a specific question for a specific type of celebrity to be settled from a specific source, there is no way to settle this question. Mork had several good ideas under comment 17 with perhaps people mag or people.com as the settlement source, as a few people suggested. As a UNIVERSAL QUESTION -- which is what stands at the moment -- there is no universal settlement source. Get it down to one small area that can be answered and settled.
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