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What will be the age of the next celebrity to die?

Voided

Market voided, to much confusion around how the market operated. But I see now that the People one is working out so well done.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

0-20
5%
21-30
10%
31-40
5%
41-50
5%
51-60
10%
61-70
15%
71-80
20%
81-90
20%
90-OLDER
10%
Voided Mon 2nd Jun 2:39pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 31st Jan 2009 7:59am PST (8 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 0-20: 5%, 21-30: 10%, 31-40: 5%, 41-50: 5%, 51-60: 10%, 61-70: 15%, 71-80: 20%, 81-90: 20%, 90-OLDER: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 31st May 2:28pm PDT by ryanb37
Suspended Sat 31st May 7:19pm PDT by mork[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Clarification of the definition of 'celebrity' required.
Unsuspended Sun 1st Jun 7:04am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Market editing done to make market ready to stand
Suspended Sun 1st Jun 8:11am PDT by anaverageamerican: Flagged by super user: Ambiguous. How do we determine whether or not someone qualifies as a celebrity? In fact the question creator states that Robert Mugabe is a celebrity, but the President of Mexico is not, but offers no rationale for that statement.
Settlement requested Sun 1st Jun 4:56pm PDT by gregmatta: Does Yves Saint Laurent dies at 71 count(AP).
Settlement requested Sun 1st Jun 4:57pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: While this has been suspended, Yves St Laurent has died at 71. If this market had been open, I believe this would have settled the market. Perhaps we should settle this and encourage Ryan to post another with stricter settlement requirements (i.e. any death reported on People.com)

Yves: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/06/01/laurent.obit.ap/index.html
http://www.people.com/people/news/0,,,00.html
Settlement requested Sun 1st Jun 7:01pm PDT by ryanb37: yes it should be settled like jenn said
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 4:54am PDT by randburg: This is a REALLY POOR SHOW and should be voided. The author has already reposted the same question in a manner that should be satisfactory to settle.
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 12:33pm PDT by ryanb37: please settle at 71-80
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 12:35pm PDT by ryanb37: should not be voided i posted a new question after this one should have settled
Voided Mon 2nd Jun 2:39pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Market voided, to much confusion around how the market operated. But I see now that the People one is working out so well done.

Suspend date: Sat 31st Jan 2009 7:59am PST (8 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (9)

9 predictions

26 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted 21-30 (H$50 at 9%)
26 weeks ago
owl1 predicted 61-70 (H$50 at 14%)
26 weeks ago
owl1 predicted 81-90 (H$100 at 22%)
26 weeks ago
quorny predicted 51-60 (H$20 at 9%)

Comments (33)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Hey, in case you didn't notice: Your keyboard is broken. ;-)
posted 26 weeks ago
  2 ryanb37
haha yeah
posted 26 weeks ago
  3 owl1
WHAT DO YOU MEAN?
posted 26 weeks ago
  4 randburg
This question is TOTALLY SUBJECTIVE and obviously only refers to persons that ryanb37 regards as "someone with fame". Even if we allow additional adjudicators of WHO is "someone with fame", we will still be limited to the viewpoints of a handful of people. There are celebrities in every walk of life, including (but not limited to): entertainment, sports, arts, politics, science, business, education, etc, etc. And then all of these amazing categories are found in every country around the world. Dozens of celebrities are dieing (and being born) every day...

And if it were not difficult enough to determine WHO is a celebrity, how would it be possible through newspaper reports to determine which of possibly hundreds of celebrities who died today died first? (So that we could try to determine their age...)

And that only refers to "national celebrities"...What about local celebrities? The problems with the word "celebrity" or "someone with fame" are endless...
posted 26 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
agreed
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 ryanb37
Can we change the word celebrity to ACTOr/ Musician/ Politician/ Internationaly known person
posted 26 weeks ago
  7 ryanb37
READ THE FLAG
posted 26 weeks ago
Whoa -- the President of Mexico is not a celebrity?? I beg to differ. That would get plenty of press.

How about something like: At least 4 of these 5 major newssources has to cover the story (NBC, CBS, FOX, CNN, ABC)
posted 26 weeks ago
AAA - strangly, it was not the question creator who said that Mugabe is a celebrity but Mexican president is not -- it was Ryan.

I agree the settlement needs a little tightening though.
posted 26 weeks ago
  10 ryanb37
I agree jenn MExican preZ would be a well known famous person I think people get me and the admin ryan confused alot
posted 26 weeks ago
  11 ryanb37
And PLEASE note I AM the questions creator and I NEVER said that statement Super user said AGAIN no one ask me anything
theres an example of a super user using their power incorectly
posted 26 weeks ago
  12 ryanb37
AVERAGEAMERICAN i never said that be more clear on what you say dont post stuff without knowing it makes you and me look stupid
posted 26 weeks ago
  13 ryanb37
Take the example off that is not needed
posted 26 weeks ago
  14 ryanj[Admin]
We gotta figure out some way of clarifying this, and I'd rather leave it you guys. Cause me and clarifying haven't worked out well this week. Anyone have any ideas?

It's not a bad question it's just a pain to define celebrity. I really can't think of how to do it.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 26 weeks ago
@Ryanj - I'll repeat my suggestion:
How about something like: At least 4 of these 5 major newssources have to cover the story (NBC, CBS, FOX, CNN, ABC)

@ryanb37 - AAA just made a simple mistake, I hope you can cut him a little slack. We're all here to have fun.
posted 26 weeks ago
  16 randburg
Every country, every locale, every societal group, etc has it's own celebrities. Basic Sociology 101. The local bonsai master (TREES not kung fu) is a celebrity in his/her circle.

Perhaps the author had an idea something like: ANYONE HONORED to walk down a red carpet. But that's not going to "cut it" either. The Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, George Bush, and Senator Craig will all be delighted...as well as thousands of grads this year, numerous participants in church services, official visitors to Buckingham Palace, etc. The problem is that we honor numerous people all the time, and that most of us have probably been a celebrity at some time in our lives under certain circumstances.

Until this question becomes much more specific, it doesn't stand a chance. And many celebrities in many groups have already passed away since the formation of this question.
posted 26 weeks ago
  17 mork[Power User]
Some examples of what 'celebrity' could be replaced with.
'major motion picture leading or supporting actor'.
'professional sports figure'.
'major TV network news anchor'

The problem with this question is that everybody has local celebrities that are not well known elsewhere. I'm certain my local weather lady gets much attention most everywhere she goes but it wouldn't be fair for me to ask this question to settle if, god forbid, something happened to her.

I hope ryanb37 can clarify this question before it requires a void.
posted 26 weeks ago
  18 ryanj[Admin]
I'm going to email ryanb with Jenni's suggestion so let's see if that will be sufficient.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 26 weeks ago
I talked it over with tri and he had another suggestion -- what if we choose just one settlement source -- say people.com -- and rephrase the question "What will be the age of the next celebrity to die as reported by People.com?"
posted 26 weeks ago
Yes, I can see this question hitting the fan...
posted 26 weeks ago
@mork - DEFINITELY a celebrity!!!
I doubt anyone complains when she stands in the middle blocking the weather stats behind her
posted 26 weeks ago
  23 ryanb37
I like Jennis Idea of being reported on multiple sites and People.com also is a good idea you guys decide Just please dont void it
posted 26 weeks ago
  24 stephen
i believe there must be like a site somewhere with a list of a bunch of celebrities
how bout we say the next person on the site list that dies?
posted 26 weeks ago
  25 randburg
If you need a red carpet type Western celebrity, here is one for you, and this question can be closed:

http://my.att.net/s/editorial.dll?pnum=1&bfromind=7406&eeid=5907100&_sitecat=1505&dcatid=0&eetype=article&render=y&ac=0&ck=&ch=ne&rg=blsadstrgt&_lid=332&_lnm=tg+ne+topnews&ck=
posted 26 weeks ago
I've been busy all afternoon and just noticed that I seem to have caused some controversy. I stand by my comment that "celebrity" cannot be unambiguously settled, but apologize to ryan37 for inadvertently attributing ryanj's edit to his question as his statement.

OTOH, there are a lot of Mexicans who consider Felipe Calderon a celebrity.
posted 26 weeks ago
Sorry randburg I disagree. YSL is not a celebrity in Kathmandu or Teheran. That's the whole problem with this question.
posted 26 weeks ago
  28 gregmatta
Does Yves Saint Laurent dies at 71 count(AP).
posted 26 weeks ago
Gretmatta.. our settlement requests passed each other in cyberspace.. Repeated here:
While this has been suspended, Yves St Laurent has died at 71. If this market had been open, I believe this would have settled the market. Perhaps we should settle this and encourage Ryan to post another with stricter settlement requirements (i.e. any death reported on People.com)

Yves: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/06/01/laurent.obit.ap/index.html
http://www.people.com/people/news/0,,,00.html
posted 26 weeks ago
  30 owl1
I think " How old will the next persons death reported in People mag. be" or something like that.
posted 26 weeks ago
  32 randburg
An Admin who has no idea what to do, three superusers, an author, and several bystanders are all tied in knots over a starry eyed definition of "celebrity". The author was probably hoping for someone like Elizabeth Taylor or Clint Eastwood. Shame! Instead, the real world is filled with real people and real celebrities...That don't seem to count.

I agree with anaverageamerican that YSL might not be satisfactory to Kathmandu, but -- wait for it -- the Royal Family of Nepal could be making a speedy departure this week with a change of government. But Alas! THAT won't be red carpet treatment in Las Vegas...

Without a specific question for a specific type of celebrity to be settled from a specific source, there is no way to settle this question. Mork had several good ideas under comment 17 with perhaps people mag or people.com as the settlement source, as a few people suggested. As a UNIVERSAL QUESTION -- which is what stands at the moment -- there is no universal settlement source. Get it down to one small area that can be answered and settled.
posted 26 weeks ago
  33 ryanb37
Should settle at 71-80
posted 26 weeks ago

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