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Will Ted Kennedy perform a speech at the Democratic Convention?

Current forecast: 9% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 9% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

For this market to settle as a YES Ted Kennedy would need to physically be at the DNC and give the speech.
This was clarified in comment #13 by Ryan the question creator and category editor at time market was created.

It's been suggested that Senator Ted Kennedy may give a major speech at the Democratic Convention in August. Kennedy despite his recently diagnosed cancer has been a major supporter of Barack Obama.

Kennedy is often referred to as the "Liberal Lion" and despite his liberal views is well respected in both parties. A speech by Kennedy would be extremely symbolic of the old guard passing the torch to the new guard. It may also be a way of uniting the party after the bitter fractured mess of the nominating process.


 
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Yes
9%
No
91%
Activity: H$84,889
Question suspends in 1 week
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 12:59am PDT (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Jun 10:47am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Clarified Wed 4th Jun 8:28pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Kennedy must be at the convention when giving the Speech
Clarified last Thursday 4:49pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Market clarified.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

1 week ago
laaleelaalee predicted Yes (H$100 at 9%)
1 week ago
bout3fitty predicted Yes (H$100 at 9%)
1 week ago
chilibean13 predicted No (H$20 at 92%)
2 weeks ago
belliqueux predicted No (H$500 at 84%)
2 weeks ago
youbet predicted No (H$100 at 85%)
more

Comments

  1 bitz
Ted Kennedy is "well respected in both parties"??? You must be kidding.
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 mork[Power User]
"As Sen. Ted Kennedy faces his latest health challenge, the outpouring of well wishes from Democrats and Republicans alike is testimony to the unique position he holds in the U.S. Senate and among the American public at large."

"His ability to practice fierce political partisanship in campaigns on the one hand, and to reach across the aisle repeatedly in achieving bipartisan legislation on the other, defies the image conservative Republicans endlessly seek to paint of him."

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_570296.html
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
Thanks for that Mork,

You can be partisan and nice too!!!

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 11 weeks ago
As a conservative myself, I disagree with him on ideology, but I respect him.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
It's his ability to work across partisan lines that I respect the most.
posted 11 weeks ago
He is respected by Republicans such as Olympia Snow, John McCain, Arlen Spector, Arnold Schwartznegger, and George Bush, all Republicans, but not conservatives.

I respect him in that he holds a public office - as I believe all public office holders should be respected, but I hold him to be a traitor of the highest order. Collaborating with the comunists in the old USSR, always trying to weaken our military, opening our borders to people who flaunt our laws, wasting incredible amounts of money on "no child left behind"... these are just a few of the reasons I feel he is a traitor.

Still, as a person, I would wish him the best & would not want anyone to be afflicted with this desease he is battling.
posted 11 weeks ago
It's his ability to work across partisan lines that I fear (and respect) the most.
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
i think the well wishes are do to his illness..more humantarian the respect of his politics. in my humble opinon respect is earned, not given just cause you got elected to public office. i wish kennedy and his family well..not for his office-bipartisanship, but as a fellow human. lots of people dislike bush, but i would hope if he got cancer folks on both sides of the political spectrum would wish him well.
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 coolkraft
let us all wish him well and pray for him today during his surgery
posted 11 weeks ago
to "perform" a speech would indicate a lack of sincerity
posted 11 weeks ago
  11 Erik
nods...we are talking about Ted Kennedy
posted 11 weeks ago
  12 bayoubear[Admin]
A point of clarification...since one of the reasons there is this question at all is his illness...does he actually have to be AT the convention, giving his speech before the audience in person, or can the speech be delivered electronically, either from somewhere within the convention or from another location...I'm assuming we're referring to a live, personal appearance at the podium in front of the delegates...probably in prime time
posted 11 weeks ago
  13 ryanj[Admin]
Hi bayoubear,

Could question to ask. For this market yes Kennedy would have to be at the convention.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 10 weeks ago
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/04/kennedy-tapes-video-for-democratic-convention/
BOSTON (AP) — Sen. Edward Kennedy will have a presence at the Democratic National Convention even if he can't make it to Denver.

A Kennedy spokeswoman said Monday that the Massachusetts senator taped a five-minute video over the weekend to air during the party gathering at the end of the month. Crews visited his home on Cape Cod.

Kennedy made a surprise visit to the Senate floor in July to cast a Medicare vote, but his immune system remains repressed and it's unclear if he can attend a large public event like the convention.
posted 2 weeks ago
  15 cognos[Power User]
Regarding settlement ...

The question, picked apart, does ask whether he will PERFORM AT the DNC. Does a pre-taped speech count as a 'performance'? I vote 'NO'.

Other thoughts are most welcome.
posted 2 weeks ago
@ cognos -- see clarification in Comment #13
posted 2 weeks ago
  17 bayoubear[Admin]
And I would add to comment #13, deliver a speech in person, at the convention, on stage, to the delegates....no tapes, not just being present...actually delivering a prepared speech to the delegates..........
posted 2 weeks ago
Also: Clarified Wed 4th Jun 11:28pm EDT by ryanj[Admin]: Kennedy must be at the convention when giving the Speech
posted 2 weeks ago
  19 mrmike
My two cents...I think his physical presence at the convention should have been more clear at the time the question was started. I feel that even a taped speech should count. What is the spirit of the question; that he be there in person or that he still be involved and take the time to produce a "speech" that will be presented at the convention. I think we all had questions/doubts that his health may preclude him from participating in whatever form, or that, god forbid, his illness would have taken him from us before the actual date. I think that the term"perform" indicates some sort of presentation by whatever means. The question should have just said: "Will he be at the convention in person to deliver a speech" if the gist was whether or not he was going to actually be in Colorado then I don't think anything should have been mentioned about a "speech".
Did the little Chinese girl that lip-synced the song in the Olympics "perform" a song even though it was pre-recorded??
It even says in the description under the question that a "speech" from Kennedy would be symbolic and unifying for the party, so again I suggest that the "spirit" of the question was whether or not a speech would be given at all and not if he was there in person. Thanks!
posted 6 days ago
  20 bayoubear[Admin]
The primary problem is the use of the word perform, as this is seen as different from someone actually giving a speech at the convention....the discussions that have followed have clearly indicated that he has to be present, and by my interpretation, has to actually be at the podium delivering the speech...even if it's only a few minutes long....any other appearance would not satisfy the intent of the question...in my opinion.

Perhaps, the background info should be amended to clarify that he actually has to be there...otherwise, wagers who don't read through all the comments may not have a clear understanding of the settlement conditions.
posted 5 days ago

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