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What demographic of person will Barack Obama choose as his running mate?

Settled as White male

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080823/D92NVQA01.html

Background:

I've enjoyed watching the wild swings in the Republican version of this question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/What_demographic_of_person_will_John_McCain_choose_as_his_running_mate_3763/view

As such a historic candidate himself, Barack may feel less pressure than McCain to add another "minority" to the ticket...

Here's another "in-depth" discussion of the topic:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=170163&title=obamas-running-mate&byDate=true


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

White male
93%
White female
4%
Black male
1%
Black female
1%
Other nationality male
1%
Other nationality female
1%
Activity: H$53,041
Settled as White male on Sat 23rd Aug 7:28am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 23rd Aug 7:28am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: White male: 40%, White female: 30%, Black male: 5%, Black female: 5%, Other nationality male: 15%, Other nationality female: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Jun 11:38am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'White male' Sat 23rd Aug 7:28am PDT by destry[Admin]: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080823/D92NVQA01.html

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 23rd Aug 7:28am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (129)

129 predictions

12 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted White female (H$100 at 3%)
12 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted White male (H$4,000 at 92%)
13 weeks ago
donal predicted White male (H$5,000 at 86%)
13 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted White male (H$250 at 78%)
14 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted White female (H$300 at 7%)
more

Comments (17)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
Jenni,

After watching that clip I had to have that photo as the market photo, I was stuck between Obama in a fat suit and this one. But come on Black & Tan starring Obama and Richardson? I couldn't pass it up!

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 24 weeks ago
Great choice Ryan :) Thanks!

Maybe we can use the fat suit pic for a different question...
posted 24 weeks ago
  3 randburg
I presume that "other nationality" refers to "other ethnicity or cultural heritage", and NOT another nationality...
posted 24 weeks ago
ummm, what if he/she is like barack?
posted 24 weeks ago
Randburg - yes, that's another ethniticity...

tocm - Barack is black. (Yes, I know he's biracial, but if he's elected, he will be our first BLACK president.)

Ryan has clarified this previously:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_Group_in_Society_Will_Be_The_First_To_Have_Its_Member_Become_The_US_President_5894/view
posted 24 weeks ago
what about bill richardson?
posted 24 weeks ago
Interesting how this question resonates with (or perhaps against) the Obama "post-racial" meme ... I detect an interference pattern. Obama's true message is change, we haven't had a _Chicago_ politician in national politics lately; and never one as liberal as Obama.
posted 24 weeks ago
well AAA you know how good chicago politicians are at "winning" elections. Obama is one of the most liberal senator ever over his 5 years as a senator too.
posted 24 weeks ago
Echoing tocm: yeh, what about Bill Richardson? To me, he comes under the heading "white male", as many Hispanic (especially mixed) consider themselves to be.
posted 24 weeks ago
Richardson should be considered "Other male"

He would certainly be considered a minority representative. (And he's the 'tan' of the above Black & Tan)
posted 24 weeks ago
Who do they think will be the "white male"? Its obviously going to be hilliary
posted 19 weeks ago
  12 buckeyetom
Hi dragon...Wouldn't it be helpful if Hubdub allowed the for the editing of comments? I'm all for it.
posted 19 weeks ago
Huh? why do you say that?
posted 18 weeks ago
  14 markc
Black and white are not "nationalities." Ambiguities will always be a problem in questions involving race. But this one seems especially poorly constructed. Not that it probably makes any difference, since all the leading candidates seem unambiguously white and northern european.
posted 13 weeks ago
Welcome to hubdub markc. I hope you are enjoying your first week here - What attracted you to this site?
posted 13 weeks ago
I like this question... I think Jenni created it perfectly... it will add to her 93% of previous questions settled successfully score
posted 13 weeks ago
Thanks for the vote of confidence fingers. This question is actually a direct copy of monkiss's http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/What_demographic_of_person_will_John_McCain_choose_as_his_running_mate_3763/view
posted 13 weeks ago

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