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What will be the fate of Anheuser-Busch? (Suspend-Settlement Date June 1, 2009)

Settled as Owned by InBev

Completed deal announced Tuesday morning (9:25 AM EST) 11/18/08

The newly-named company announced this morning that the European brewing giant InBev has completed the $52 billion buyout of American brewing giant Anheuser-Busch, and is revealing its new name.

Effective today, InBev has changed its name to Anheuser-Busch InBev to reflect the heritage and traditions of Anheuser-Busch. Starting November 20, 2008, the company will trade under the new ticker symbol ABI on the Euronext Brussels stock exchange. Anheuser-Busch has become a wholly owned subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev and will retain its current headquarters in St. Louis, Mo.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-inbev-anheuser-busch-111807,0,6231866.story

Background:


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Still Independent
7%
Owned by InBev
82%
Owned by Diageo
2%
Owned by Pernod-Ricard
2%
Owned by someone else
7%
Activity: H$45,477
Settled as Owned by InBev on Yesterday 10:07am PST

Suspend date: Tue 2nd Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (27 weeks to go) Settlement date: Yesterday 10:07am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Yesterday 6:25am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Still Independent: 30%, Owned by InBev: 25%, Owned by Diageo: 15%, Owned by Pernod-Ricard: 15%, Owned by someone else: 15%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Jun 5:59pm PDT by theonecalledmichael
Suspended Sun 13th Jul 7:41pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sun 13th Jul 7:41pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,381523,00.html
Settles as "Owned by InBev" (market suspended)
Settlement requested Sun 13th Jul 7:42pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: Void all predictions after 9:40 pm ET
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jK1tY9DhEO2iWNtESnUfSflad7GwD91TAG000
Settlement requested Sun 13th Jul 8:18pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]:
Updated Prediction Cut-off:

Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:45pm EDT

<http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1332045720080714>
Settlement requested Mon 14th Jul 1:02am PDT by destry[Admin]: Please do not settle this question yet. According to the rule 2.3.4 Business Category

* For questions with regards takeovers an "offer" is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
* Unless otherwise specified, questions asking whether company X will be acquired (or merge with company Y) by date Z will be settled on completion of the deal, not on announcement.
Unsuspended Mon 18th Aug 9:52am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: seems like the market is not settled totally, and may not be for a while...unsuspending to allow movement of monies.
Suspended Yesterday 10am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: pending examination of announcement
Settled as 'Owned by InBev' Yesterday 10:07am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Completed deal announced Tuesday morning (9:25 AM EST) 11/18/08

The newly-named company announced this morning that the European brewing giant InBev has completed the $52 billion buyout of American brewing giant Anheuser-Busch, and is revealing its new name.

Effective today, InBev has changed its name to Anheuser-Busch InBev to reflect the heritage and traditions of Anheuser-Busch. Starting November 20, 2008, the company will trade under the new ticker symbol ABI on the Euronext Brussels stock exchange. Anheuser-Busch has become a wholly owned subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev and will retain its current headquarters in St. Louis, Mo.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-inbev-anheuser-busch-111807,0,6231866.story

Suspend date: Tue 2nd Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (27 weeks to go) Settlement date: Yesterday 10:07am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Yesterday 6:25am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (74)

74 predictions

1 week ago
djmassey predicted Owned by InBev (H$1,000 at 80%)
11 weeks ago
widescreen predicted Owned by InBev (H$100 at 67%)
11 weeks ago
widescreen predicted Owned by InBev (H$100 at 66%)
12 weeks ago
crafts1026 predicted Still Independent (H$20 at 9%)
12 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted Owned by InBev (H$20 at 76%)
more

Comments (32)

  1 randburg
Unfortunately, the history can't be accessed. THE STORY YOU REQUESTED COULD NOT BE FOUND...Do you possibly have another link for us? Thanks.
posted 24 weeks ago
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL0169236120080602

google news has several good links to stories regarding the possible takeover
posted 24 weeks ago
  9 coolkraft
unite...all u beer drinkers

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011593094
posted 18 weeks ago
  10 dragon01
In case anyone 'thinks' this is a "Merger", I would refer you to several news agencies' reports over the past several weeks ie London Times and Florida Sun_Sentinal
who both report that "Anheuser-Busch was in active talks to sell itself" and "..Busch board likely to accept a sweetened buyout offer from...InBev"
posted 18 weeks ago
  14 coolkraft
FYI

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25709503/
posted 17 weeks ago
Should be unsuspended... this is ludicrous
posted 14 weeks ago
  18 coolkraft
agree
posted 14 weeks ago
  19 bayoubear[Admin]
OK...here's the problem...look at the rules regarding this situation...

According to the rule 2.3.4 Business Category

* For questions with regards takeovers an "offer" is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
* Unless otherwise specified, questions asking whether company X will be acquired (or merge with company Y) by date Z will be settled on completion of the deal, not on announcement.


And then this report fro 7/22 which indicates that the deal is NOT complete and that AB is still calling its own shots in marketing and management...

Brewer InBev is already looking for ways to cut costs once its acquisition of Anheuser-Busch (BUD) is complete, possibly by year's end. In the meantime, A-B plans no let-up in the marketing of its brands, especially up-and-comer Bud Light Lime, which launched in April.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-07-22-bud-light-lime-anheuser-busch_N.htm

We all KNOW the deal is done, but can it be settled by the rules in play? Ideas, comments???
posted 14 weeks ago
While I don't know, my hit is this rule was created to prevent incorrect settlements based on "announced" offers/mergers, etc., and/or when "everyone KNEW" what the outcome was going to be -- and it turned out not to be. Sort of like the Yahoo/Microsoft announcements, and other takeovers/mergers that didn't, at the end of the day, happen for one reason or another.

It's unclear to me when a question such as this ought to suspend -- however it does seem reasonable that it would suspend based on an authoritative announcement -- as this one did.

-- just my H$ worth.
posted 14 weeks ago
  21 bayoubear[Admin]
So if that authoritative announcement was good enough to suspend it, is it good enough to settle it? Do we wait for something better? Don't think we should reopen it though. Just gettin' your feelings folks.
posted 14 weeks ago
I hope others will add their thoughts ... they likely will.

I think the existing HD Business rule is very clear, and accordingly, this market ought "be settled on completion of the deal, not on announcement."

If the category editor, or others, want to change the rule, than a discussion ought be started about what's wanted -- however to change an existing rule that's in-play, relative to settlement of a question, ought not, in my view, be done.

As many know, there is a companion market to this question, that is also suspended under the same rule:
<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Anheuser_Busch_merge_with_or_take_over_InBev_by_the_end_of_2008_3318/view>
posted 14 weeks ago
  23 bayoubear[Admin]
Thanks a lot for the complexity not only of this question, but the other one that was referred to. Much more difficult to settle than the "where in the h--k will the Dow close" questions.....

IMHO we probably could settle both questions pretty darn soon, but still trying to keep with the spirit of the question....this is a point where question creators can really weigh in with their opinions as to whether or not the spirit of their intended question has been satisfied...Michael?? Ya still there?
posted 14 weeks ago
Personally, I think this deal could fall through: the Busch family is very proud and will certainly want to place stipulations on the takeover/buyout/merger. If e settle now, and the deal falls through in April or May, we have done an injustice....but leaving it suspended is against our rules here..... considering the high percentage that switched their bets at the announcement of the deal (literally all at once) I really don't see the harm in keeping this open....if the deal goes through, all of these 90% will still be paid, and I would bet that a few people would bet the odds in favor of the deal falling through..... I would refer to the question about whether hubdub will be around next year.... I invested heavily early on, and I am leaving my money tied up in the question until January 1, 2009.... If someone wants to cash out of this longterm market, they surely can..... I say unsuspend until the deal goes throuogh....or until it doesn't go through by suspend date stated in the question...... Thanks, Michael
posted 14 weeks ago
  25 bayoubear[Admin]
Thanks Michael for the reply...let's get a few more in and see what we can do with this one.....
posted 14 weeks ago
  26 coolkraft
Michael makes sense of a complicated situation with InBev and Anheuser Busch...unsuspend seems fair to me...
posted 14 weeks ago
  27 dragon01
I would concur with Michael also.
posted 13 weeks ago
  30 dragon01
I see we still have 62 predictions being held up on this one. Knock knock...anyone awake in there?
posted 13 weeks ago
Quick unsuspend it so i can cash in now and still get a fraction of the money i put in!
posted 13 weeks ago
  32 bayoubear[Admin]
OK...unsuspending it....seems like the best thing to do at this point...
posted 13 weeks ago

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