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How old will the next celebrity be that dies AS REPORTED ON PEOPLE.COM

Settled as 71-80

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20203740,00.html

News of his death was reported at 12 so predictions made after that fact are voided.

Background:

OK people.com has to report the death of the celebrity. they post most all celebritys deaths on their site. If a celebrity dies and it is not reported on people.com then it will not count


Settlement details: as reported on People.com

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

0-20
2%
21-30
2%
31-40
1%
41-50
1%
51-60
3%
61-70
5%
71-80
78%
81-90
6%
90 and older
3%
Activity: H$8,710
Settled as 71-80 on Mon 2nd Jun 2:34pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Mon 2nd Jun 2:34pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 2nd Jun 10am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0-20: 10%, 21-30: 10%, 31-40: 5%, 41-50: 5%, 51-60: 10%, 61-70: 10%, 71-80: 20%, 81-90: 15%, 90 and older: 15%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Jun 6:16pm PDT by ryanb37
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 9:33am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 9:33am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspending awaiting release of people.com article (if not forthcoming in next couple hours, will ask to unsuspend) (market suspended)
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 12:02pm PDT by mtf0528: http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20203740,00.html
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 1:11pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: People.com has reported his death.. please back void to 12:00 PM EDT, June 2, 2008 when news of his death was first released.
Settled as '71-80' Mon 2nd Jun 2:34pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20203740,00.html

News of his death was reported at 12 so predictions made after that fact are voided.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Mon 2nd Jun 2:34pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 2nd Jun 10am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (27)

27 predictions

26 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted 71-80 (H$5,000 at 49%)
26 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted 81-90 (H$100 at 19%)
26 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted 61-70 (H$100 at 16%)
26 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted 81-90 (H$20 at 18%)
26 weeks ago
ampersand predicted 61-70 (H$100 at 11%)
more

Comments (24)

Thanks for the repost Ryan, hopefully this one will last longer!
posted 26 weeks ago
this question can be gamed... most certainly a news channel like fox or cnn will report the death on television before the people website can be updated with a story.... the lag time gives everyone ample opportunity to change their votes or place new ones... plus the lag time between request for settlement and the actual time it takes for someone to suspend it....
posted 26 weeks ago
as witnessed here, the story wasn't posted until 7:30 edt

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20203612,00.html
posted 26 weeks ago
and the public release of the information was at 5:00 edt as witnessed here:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/06/01/laurent.obit/index.html
posted 26 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
ryanb37, I really feel very sorry for you having so much trouble getting this question through. I very appreciate your staying power. Please do not despair on this question if it is voided another time. Maybe the topic of the question is not delimited sharply enough to be intangible, if you know, what I mean.
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 bcguelph
bo diddley died today - I wonder if it'll make it onto People.com's site??
posted 26 weeks ago
  7 hubdubbob
Bo Diddley (79) probably will be on People.com, since my predictions were 61 - 70 and 81 - 90. LOL
posted 26 weeks ago
  8 hubdubbob
@theonecalledmichael - You might be right, as I see the 71 - 80 choice greatly increasing, with the passing of Bo Diddley.
posted 26 weeks ago
yep! it really took off, kind of like with YSL....
posted 26 weeks ago
  10 randburg
Bo Diddley is a celebrity...?
posted 26 weeks ago
  11 kruijs[Power User]
I should have created a question like "will the celebrity death question settle before void", hehe
posted 26 weeks ago
Or, "Will Ryanb37's void ratio be greater than settlement ratio by July 1?".... Just jokes, ryan...keep up the hard work... i'll be watching!
posted 26 weeks ago
  13 ryanb37
i think I would put all my money on me having a HIGH void ratio
posted 26 weeks ago
  14 bcguelph
I don't understand the reason for the void. Is it that wagers took place after the news item was made public?
posted 26 weeks ago
  15 destry[Admin]
I think part of the problem is that by using people.com as settlement source, they typically don't release the information at same time as mainstream media, so the question could be gamed. Just like it was. People see the news on CNN and then wager, then an hour later or so it shows on People.com...
Unfortunately not all news items make good markets on hubdub.
posted 26 weeks ago
  16 bcguelph
Okay, I guess I understand. There are lots of questions that are "played" by folks that watch CNN and jump on the news, no? I thought that this was a practice employed by a number of hubdubers. For example, when playing a question like "What MLB team will have the most wins at the end of May" the person who makes a lot of money is the person who watches MLB.com, and when a particular game is won or lost they pounce on hubdub and make bets based on their "new" knowledge. These folks (the ones who watch CNN et al) seem to me to be the ones who do best on Hubdub, and this question doesn't seem any different.
posted 26 weeks ago
  17 destry[Admin]
One of the things that we hope to help stop as super users is people being able to wager on a question after the results have been known. Having the power to suspend a market will hopefully give us the chance to see those markets and suspend them. I know on Saturday I was watching the DNC hearing and was able to suspend those markets minutes before they announced results.
posted 26 weeks ago
The question wanted to ask "When will the next celebrity die?" -- the settlement source is used only to help us define celebrity which is somewhat culturally arbitrary. I suspended this as soon as bcguelph mentioned that Bo was dead (sadly I spend much more time here than CNN these days, so that's where I learned it) and bets made after the news was released at 12 EDT today will be voided.

I actually think this is a pretty great market and think it should be a regular question on hubdub.
posted 26 weeks ago
  19 bcguelph
understood, and agreed.
posted 26 weeks ago
i like the market, too, i just had an issue with the settlement source, since people.com really isn't a news source, and don't really try to beat the news sites to the story...they post it later than others.... i wouldn't have a problem with a different settlement source...
posted 26 weeks ago
  21 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

I'll settle the market now, but besides that using People.com is fine by me. In politics we sometimes use realclearpolictics and they don't update immediately. It's really just the luck of the draw sometimes.

Ryan happy we finally got your market moving, well not we but the Hubdub userbase. Well done guys!

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 26 weeks ago
you will see the curve upward on the last day every time, because it has to settle with people.com, even if we flag it, we have to wait for people.com.... i think that is a horrible decision, ryan... please re-consider, at least to put it back to a major news source... then maybe we suspend, pending the posting on people.com... just concerned...don't want this question to hit the fan...
posted 26 weeks ago
@tomc - That's exactly what I did -- the market suspended when the news came out on CNN and then we waited to see if People.com would report. They did, and then we requested settlement. (Check the info tab for suspend/settlement actions) It was suspended less than an hour after it was reported that he died.
posted 26 weeks ago
as long as we suspend quickly, fine... but i don't like the idea of the bandwagon rallies just before suspension...just trying to help...
posted 26 weeks ago

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