theonecalledmichael 
How many Cat. 3 or more Hurricanes (at time of landfall) will strike the U.S. Mainland this year?
7%)
"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray, who is beginning his 25th year forecasting hurricanes at Colorado State University.
The team's forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight, four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
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Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 3:59pm PST (13 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
None: 30%, 1: 30%, 2: 20%, 3: 10%, 4: 4%, 5: 3%, 6: 2%, 7 or more: 1%
Action history:
theonecalledmichael
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all
Get widget!New!Predictions (158)
158 predictions
pixelpaws
dragon01
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
predicted 2 (H$300 at 28%)
widescreen
des0034
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted 3 (H$100 at 18%)
facemanComments (3)
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New in Science » Environment
More questions by
theonecalledmichael
27 settled, 15 voided
0 in 2006
6 in 2005, only 4 of them Cat 3 or higher
6 in 2004, only 3 of them Cat 3 or higher
2 in 2003
1 in 2002
0 in 2001
0 in 2000
3 in 1999, Only 1 of them Cat3 or higher
3 in 1998
1 in 1997
1) During the years 1851-1914 and 1990 to 2006, a hurricane strike is defined as a hurricane that is estimated to have caused sustained hurricane-force winds on the coastline, but does not necessarily make landfall in the area of hurricane-force winds. One example of a hurricane strike is Hurricane Ophelia in 2005, which remained offshore of the North Carolina coast but still brought sustained hurricane-force winds to the coastline.
2) During the years 1915 to 1989, a hurricane strike is defined as a hurricane whose center passes within the direct hit definition area provided above. The best-track reanalysis project is working to change the definition to be strictly defined by the winds, but for now the regional effects catalogued by HURDAT are in a transition period that could last several more years.
Since 1851:
TOTAL Hurricane Strikes 279
MAJOR Hurricanes 96
Major hurricanes are categories 3,4 & 5.
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