How many Tassie Devil babies will Gretel and Gympy have
Settled as none by supsension date
No reports indicating any births have occured
Background:>
THE breeders at the Australian Reptile Park who now carry the burden of saving an entire endangered species were relieved the other day when they peered for the first time this mating season into four-year-old Patch's pouch. Patch it seems, has produced a large litter of 4 babies.
Gretel and Gympy, 2 of the more aggressive,and therefore less likely to reproduce females, are now reportedly pregnant.
How many joeys will these two girls have in total?
Link:
http://tinyurl.com/6j9rkj
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
How many Tassie Devil babies will Gretel and Gympy have
both produce a total over 5 live joeys
both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys
both produce a total of 2 live joeys
none by supsension date
Zoom out
Forecast history, %
Settled
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both produce a total over 5 live joeys |
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both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys |
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both produce a total of 2 live joeys |
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none by supsension date |
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Activity: H$5,469
Settled as
none by supsension date on Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDT
Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
both produce a total over 5 live joeys: 25%, both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys: 25%, both produce a total of 2 live joeys: 25%, none by supsension date: 25%
Action history:
Created Sun 1st Jun 8:49pm PDT by
jchiang
Suspended Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 2nd Jul 7:09am PDT by
jenniandboys![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
:
There have been no news reports that I can find. The gestation period is 3 weeks, so if they were going to have them, it should have happened by now.
I have emailed the zoo. Perhaps we can wait another couple of weeks to see if they respond or send out a news release on the matter. (It looks like they waited well over two months to release the news on Patch, another recent Devil mom...
Settlement requested Sun 6th Jul 3:55am PDT by
exilpat:
this has been suspended since quite a while. the last prediction offered in this vote holds true ever since: "none by supsension date". that settles it.
Settled as 'none by supsension date' Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDT by
ryanj![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
:
No reports indicating any births have occured
Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (19)
19 predictions
22 weeks ago
exilpat predicted
none by supsension date (H$500 at 74%)
22 weeks ago
wandaoleary predicted
none by supsension date (H$100 at 72%)
22 weeks ago
jchiavelli predicted
none by supsension date (H$500 at 71%)
22 weeks ago
exilpat predicted
none by supsension date (H$250 at 53%)
22 weeks ago
wojtek predicted
none by supsension date (H$100 at 51%)
more22 weeks ago
exilpat predicted
none by supsension date (H$500 at 74%)
22 weeks ago
wandaoleary predicted
none by supsension date (H$100 at 72%)
22 weeks ago
jchiavelli predicted
none by supsension date (H$500 at 71%)
22 weeks ago
exilpat predicted
none by supsension date (H$250 at 53%)
22 weeks ago
wojtek predicted
none by supsension date (H$100 at 51%)
22 weeks ago
racketdad predicted
none by supsension date (H$79 at 50%)
22 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted
none by supsension date (H$20 at 39%)
23 weeks ago
zeebac predicted
both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys (H$20 at 22%)
23 weeks ago
whatsup predicted
both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys (H$50 at 22%)
23 weeks ago
paulcroft predicted
none by supsension date (H$20 at 39%)
23 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted
none by supsension date (H$1,000 at 32%)
25 weeks ago
myunion predicted
both produce a total of 2 live joeys (H$50 at 25%)
25 weeks ago
jenniandboys![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
predicted
both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys (H$100 at 26%)
26 weeks ago
valornhonor![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)
predicted
both produce a total over 5 live joeys (H$19 at 25%)
26 weeks ago
mork![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)
predicted
both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys (H$50 at 25%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (9)
http://www.australianreptilepark.com.au/news.asp?nID=26
HI THERE.
WE HAVE CONFIRMED JOEY'S IN GRETLE AND GYMPI IS STILL AWAITING A POUCH CHECK. NOT SURE HOW MANY JOEYS GRETLE HAS IT WAS A VERY EARLY VERY QUICK CHECK. GYMPI WILL BE CHECKRED IN A FEW WEEKS. THANKS
Recommend we unsuspend market. Any disagreements?
(I have no predictions in this market.)
Otherwise, we could have settled as none by suspension when the question was created just by pure gestational calendar calculations.
What troubles me is that there is a "suspension date" as a stated option,
and the question is "How many joeys will these two girls have in total? (by the suspension date).
Settling by "pure gestational calendar calculations" isn't one of the "Settlement Sources".
Because the background said that devils are given to phantom pregnancies, I read the "none by suspension date" to be that the pregnancies turn out to be false.
At least one of the girls has now given birth to her joeys and has confirmed babies inside the pouch. That says to me that she has produced some (undetermined) number of live joeys. It seems strange to me to say that because they are still in the pouch "they don't count" and would nullify the entire question (to my thinking).
Perhaps Tisha can drop a note to Jennifer and see if she can clarify that last option for us?
(BTW I have very little h$ in this market, I'm just interested in the outcome... and that was the entire text of the email response I received from the zoo)
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