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How many Tassie Devil babies will Gretel and Gympy have

Settled as none by supsension date

No reports indicating any births have occured

Background:

THE breeders at the Australian Reptile Park who now carry the burden of saving an entire endangered species were relieved the other day when they peered for the first time this mating season into four-year-old Patch's pouch. Patch it seems, has produced a large litter of 4 babies.

Gretel and Gympy, 2 of the more aggressive,and therefore less likely to reproduce females, are now reportedly pregnant.

How many joeys will these two girls have in total?

Link: http://tinyurl.com/6j9rkj


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

both produce a total over 5 live joeys
8%
both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys
10%
both produce a total of 2 live joeys
9%
none by supsension date
73%
Activity: H$5,469
Settled as none by supsension date on Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: both produce a total over 5 live joeys: 25%, both produce a total between 3 and 5 live joeys: 25%, both produce a total of 2 live joeys: 25%, none by supsension date: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Jun 8:49pm PDT by jchiang
Suspended Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 2nd Jul 7:09am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: There have been no news reports that I can find. The gestation period is 3 weeks, so if they were going to have them, it should have happened by now.

I have emailed the zoo. Perhaps we can wait another couple of weeks to see if they respond or send out a news release on the matter. (It looks like they waited well over two months to release the news on Patch, another recent Devil mom...
Settlement requested Sun 6th Jul 3:55am PDT by exilpat: this has been suspended since quite a while. the last prediction offered in this vote holds true ever since: "none by supsension date". that settles it.
Settled as 'none by supsension date' Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: No reports indicating any births have occured

Suspend date: Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 6th Jul 12:33pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 30th Jun 6:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (19)

19 predictions

22 weeks ago
exilpat predicted none by supsension date (H$500 at 74%)
22 weeks ago
wandaoleary predicted none by supsension date (H$100 at 72%)
22 weeks ago
jchiavelli predicted none by supsension date (H$500 at 71%)
22 weeks ago
exilpat predicted none by supsension date (H$250 at 53%)
22 weeks ago
wojtek predicted none by supsension date (H$100 at 51%)
more

Comments (9)

Email from Australian Reptile Park:
HI THERE.
WE HAVE CONFIRMED JOEY'S IN GRETLE AND GYMPI IS STILL AWAITING A POUCH CHECK. NOT SURE HOW MANY JOEYS GRETLE HAS IT WAS A VERY EARLY VERY QUICK CHECK. GYMPI WILL BE CHECKRED IN A FEW WEEKS. THANKS

Recommend we unsuspend market. Any disagreements?
posted 21 weeks ago
ummm ... maybe I'm missing something, but it looks to me like this should SETTLE now as "none by suspension date". Wasn't that the way this question was created ... with that option -- and predicted on by HD users?
(I have no predictions in this market.)
posted 21 weeks ago
But they've had the babies, they're just itty bitty and in the pouch, so they can't be counted.

Otherwise, we could have settled as none by suspension when the question was created just by pure gestational calendar calculations.
posted 21 weeks ago
I appreciate your efforts in getting information!

What troubles me is that there is a "suspension date" as a stated option,
and the question is "How many joeys will these two girls have in total? (by the suspension date).

Settling by "pure gestational calendar calculations" isn't one of the "Settlement Sources".
posted 21 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
@jenni & newswran..i have no money on this so just my thoughts. question was created june 11th. Suspended last Monday 9:59am EDT. if the babies was born by or on that time i don't see the harm in waiting to count them. i'm guessing jenni only posted part of the email she got from the zoo. they only confirmed one is a mommy..waiting a few weeks to confirm-do a pouch check on the other. if only one is mommy i don't know what you do then..void? did they both give birth by suspend time? i don't see an option for only one being mommy. if theres a way to verify both had babies by suspend time, then it would be easiar to decide. goodluck all and have a nice day.
posted 21 weeks ago
So we seem to be discussing what state the joeys are in when they in-pouched. Australian animals are wacky... First the little devils gestate in the womb for three weeks, then they are born and migrate directly to the pouch where they gestate for another 3.5 months. Then they come out and about as moderately sized baby devils.

Because the background said that devils are given to phantom pregnancies, I read the "none by suspension date" to be that the pregnancies turn out to be false.

At least one of the girls has now given birth to her joeys and has confirmed babies inside the pouch. That says to me that she has produced some (undetermined) number of live joeys. It seems strange to me to say that because they are still in the pouch "they don't count" and would nullify the entire question (to my thinking).

Perhaps Tisha can drop a note to Jennifer and see if she can clarify that last option for us?

(BTW I have very little h$ in this market, I'm just interested in the outcome... and that was the entire text of the email response I received from the zoo)
posted 21 weeks ago
(oh and just to add.. in the background, it talks about Patch's large litter of 4: STILL IN THE POUCH!!)
posted 21 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
@jenni..i read it as concerning gretel and gympy. they confirm joey's in gretel's pouch. if they was born before suspend date that imho would require waiting to see how many. the problem as i see it is gympy. can't say she has any, and if she does was they born before the suspend date? see how the woman specices confuse's things..hehe the question and options for answers says "both". hope it turns out well for all invovled. have a nice day.
posted 21 weeks ago

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