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Will heating oil rise to $5.00 per gallon this fall?

Suspended

Suspend date reached

Background:

Question will suspend November 21, but settlement may not be made until the end of Fall, Dec. 22, unless we are able to settle earlier.


Settlement based on prices according the NYMEX for Heating Oil (HO). http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx

Price on 10/08/08 was $2.4331. It had been as high as over $3.18 at the end of August, but demand usually strenghtens as we move into the colder months. Will it this year?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source referring to prices for heating oil (HO) on NYMEX.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Suspended

Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$123,148
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Fri 21st Nov 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Mon 2nd Jun 1:09am PDT by coolkraft
Suspended Sat 4th Oct 3:47am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Settlement source needed
Changed Suspend date Tue 7th Oct 9:43am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2008-10-31 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 7th Oct 9:44am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: More information is now available
Suspended Fri 21st Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 25th Nov 2:16pm PST by coolkraft: http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/036211.html

no way heating oil will reach this price this year
Settlement requested Tue 25th Nov 2:19pm PST by coolkraft: another notehttp://newenglandoil.com/newhampshire/zone2.asp?x=0

Suspend date: Fri 21st Nov 11:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (52)

52 predictions

1 week ago
oliver predicted No (H$500 at 93%)
1 week ago
pita_soup predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
1 week ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted No (H$5,000 at 93%)
2 weeks ago
fundo predicted Yes (H$9 at 8%)
2 weeks ago
fundo predicted Yes (H$10 at 8%)
more

Comments (19)

  1 coolkraft
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-poschu0714,0,5030002.story

just like gasoline..prices going up up up
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 Erik
This has been suspended for four days...re-open or void!!
All of these suspended markets are REALLY getting old!!
Can't anyone at Hubdub make a decision?!?!?
posted 8 weeks ago
  8 Erik
Nov 2008 $2.2100
posted 7 weeks ago
heating oil = diesel without the red dye and all the taxes!
posted 1 week ago
  14 coolkraft
this should be settled...no way is heating oil going to be $5.00
posted 5 days ago
  16 bayoubear[Admin]
I would like to settle this, as it is pretty obvious that the price of heating oil is not going to magically climb back up to $5 by December 22, but those were the conditions of the settlement, and it would set a bad precedent to just disregard those conditions. Everyone wagering on the question should have known there was the possibility of a 30 day period of suspension before settlement would occur, just as there are other periods of varying lengths with other questions.

Be patient...consider your future winnings as a Christmas present yet to come!
posted 4 days ago
  17 coolkraft
then questions should NOT be suspended until they are settled!
posted 4 days ago
  18 bayoubear[Admin]
This is a news forecasting site. One of the objects that the players should be trying to do is develop their ability to predict what will happen. Usually, questions will be set up in such a way as to require players to actually predict what will happen in a certain situation, based upon the knowledge available at the time. Questions may be designed to allow various periods of time for suspension prior to settlement, usually ranging from 7-30 days on longer term markets, down to a few days on a weekly question, and even an hour or less on a daily one.

We try to discourage having questions that allow players to wager on outcomes that have already been determined, just to make a few easy bucks.
posted 4 days ago

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