Will Hillary Clinton concede, suspend, or quit her bid for president before 6/6/08?

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/06/bill-clinton-th.html

Maybe Hilary will win Montana and South Dakota tomorrow. The polling data looks promising... we'll just have to see

Hillary Clinton is at least prepared at the end of Tuesday evening’s last two Democratic primary contests to cede that Barack Obama has enough delegates to stake claim to the nomination, although she appears unprepared to complete back out of the race just yet. source: foxnews.com

the point is she isn't backing out/conceding her bid for president just yet, she's only cedeing the obama has enough delegates

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06032008/news/nationalnews/clinton_to_acknowledge_obama_has_enough__113779.htm

"The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City."

UPDATE - 08:38 AM (PDT)

"Clinton campaign: AP story is "incorrect"

AP is reporting that she will concede the delegate race though her campaign denies it."

Seattle Times

<http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/index.html>

"Clinton aide: Not so fast"

"Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman denies an AP report Clinton is ready to concede the Democratic nomination tonight."

Chicago Tribune

<http://link.chicagotribune.com/r/8PYSZD/QNKRI/4UPZL/LRC1/3IG3M/1G/t>

There may be a lot being said today, but remember there's still voters out there who want to believe that their vote matters...tomorrow may be a totally different thing when it comes to making concessions and such...

But the question states "concede, suspend OR quit her bid". The term concede is an option, and if Hillary concedes anything this should be settled as a yes.

the question states "concede, suspend or quit her bid for PRESIDENT" does not say concede that obama has delegates. READ THE QUESTION. she will not suspend or concede her race for president!

I DID READ THE QUESTION! Conceding Obama has the delagates for nomination sounds like conceding her race for President. Of course, that is just my opinion and as usual a question is open to interpretation. But please refrain from implying I didn't read the question.

"The advisers said Clinton has made a strategic decision to not formally end her campaign"
source: http://www.nypost.com/seven/06032008/news/nationalnews/clinton_to_acknowledge_obama_has_enough__113779.htm

@ jake- hope this clears it up for you, there is obviously no interpretation needed. question is stated clearly and if Clinton is still in the presidential race well this question is settled as a NO

Spritzer called and left a msg for HRC, to do lunch... or not... or maybe a coffee...

This question is crystal clear ... Of course, that depends upon what the meaning of IS, is? ... LOL ... THANK YOU BILL CLINTON FOR THAT :-P

Personally, as long as she isn't ever a President of this country I could care less how this settles. Watching her "concede" or whatever Belarusia states her position is (because he obviously thinks he is smarter than I am and isn't afraid to act ignorant enough to point that out) will be good enough for me. End of subject for me. Only in Clinton land can you concede but not have it be a concession. Watch out for that sniper fire!

Hi Jake,

I certainly agree with you here, only in Clinton land can you concede without actually conceding. This womans driving me nuts! First the pop. vote market and now this one. I'm keeping the market up though because concession is a different thing then conceding the delegate count.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

And please don't forget what suspend means in this context. Remember Romney? He suspended his campaign. He did not concede. He did not quit. He deactivated it for a time with the option to reactivate it. If anything, I can imagine Hillary suspending her campaign tonight rather than quitting or conceding. She'll announce her support for Obama... or rather "Making sure there's a Democratic President in November". I think that's the best that Obama can hope for tonight.

Btw, God Bless you Ryan. It's going to be a long night and a real test of the SuperUsers... is that what they are called?

@jamalpeter -- you wrote "And please don't forget what suspend means in this context."

To my read, if Clinton announces she is "suspending" her campaign, before June 6th, then this market would settle as "yes".

Do you understand a "different context", with a different result?

Clinton has to announce that she is "suspending" her campaign in order for it to settle that way

I just wrote a long explanation regarding the intent of this question and the system logged me out when I attempted to post it, thus wiping out my writings. Since I don't have the gumption to do it again please allow me to simply suggest the following:

Permit Ryan to settle this by his best judgment in peace. He has been very fair and objective in the past and I have no doubt he will settle it properly.

Thanks for the interest - markov

She may never stop talking.

Clinton: no decision on what next
Jun 3 10:07 PM US/Eastern

NEW YORK (AP) - "Hillary Rodham Clinton says she will consult with party leaders and supporters to determine her next steps now that Barack Obama has enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination.

In a speech in New York, Clinton told supporters that: "This has been a long campaign and I will be making no decisions tonight." As she spoke, supporters chanted "Denver, Denver," thinking ahead to the site of the party's convention in August.

Earlier in the day, Clinton told congressional colleagues she would be open to joining Obama's ticket as his vice presidential nominee. But in her speech, the former first lady stopped short of ending or suspending her campaign. She did say she was committed to a united Democratic Party moving forward."

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D912VJCO1&show_article=1

The saga continues!

"I'm not making any decisions tonight" sounds like she'll be awhile. Think she'll wait for a Veep offer before she goes away? Denver maybe?

The saga continues indeed. This question will be up to a million $H by the time it ends. Good one Markov.

Nope, it'll be quick...they always say "not tonight", probably tomorrow or the next day... she doesn't need to threaten the convention to continue her efforts at the Veep spot... she has plenty of clout now, especially compared to just a few months ago.... as an un-biased obama supporter, i think we have to offer it to her... and i think she will do a great job in helping the party win in November... i would have voted for her if she had been the candidate, and i think most of her supporters will go to obama.... i wish we would have had this quality of candidates (both of them) in the last two elections....

It'll be soon. The longer she waits, the more irrelevant she becomes. Why would the media cover a candidate that has lost? She'll use her spotlight to draw attention to universal health care, and perhaps her desire to get the VP.

ALSO, I think that a ton of H$s will be moving around in the next few days as Presidential questions settle - interesting times for Hubdub and Hubdubbers!

dittos on that bc! I think these presidential questions (and the triple crown) will set records that might be hard to beat in the times following the election in the fall.... i have a ton of money tied up in these questions (all public, btw)....

I'm betting big against you on this one, I think she'll draw her perceived advantage out way past Thursday night. I don't think she'll be offered the veep spot either, there's been too much between them. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

She will NOT get an offer to be VP - not because there's been differences, but because his message is about changing Washington (not just beating McCain). There's no way having her as VP forwards that message/goal.

@owl1:

that's ok, i think hubdub just changed their motto: "Hubdub.com: diasagreements 'R Us!"

I'd rather disagree and have an intelligent conversation with you anyday, than to argue with know-it-alls... Good Luck! I'm putting another $1000 on Yes.... one of us will take a bath!

I'm all in, I have 184H$ cash left so I'll leave any more market moving to you. I'll warm the water.

good, cause i think the bath might take place at your house, not mine.....LOL...

Oy, I've got 5600$H on this one I've never bet that much. C'MON Hilly, hang in there til' midnight Thursday, PST of course.!!!

i've got $8500 on it... and will pump more in if it falls below 50/50.... i'm afraid you might come out ahead if you find some reason to void....!!!!!!! LOL... i just can't see her staying in it, and tomorrow there will be a tidal wave of SD endorsements coming in for obama.... we need the party to start focusing on Nov.... that's why i say she'll be out, gracefully, and with more than what would have been offered to her a few months ago... check out my new avatar.... let me know what you think...

I did, its great. I just think there was never a better time than tonight to be gracefull and she lacked the grace to make an heroic exit. She could have been a hero tonight but she has her own agenda. We'll see.

ahhh, i seeee, i almost had you pegged for a clinton supporter.... but you are suspicious of her motives... i agree, tonight would have been a great, prime-time opportunity for her to bow out gracefully.... but i still think that her case will be made in the next day or two, and either way, she will bow out.... make sure you keep that bath warm, and add bubbles if you like them....LOL

i see lots of people cashed in already.

Bubbles and I have a little submarine, oops, did I type that?. Anyway I liked them both at the beginning but after Hilly's slide into Roveland I thought Obama was the classier, smarter, honester?, less corporater?, all around groovier candidate.

inre: aipac this AM

Clinton said"...and I know Senator Obama will be a great friend to Israel...."

it's coming, it just wasn't the right venue this morning.... i'm now in for over 11 K!

as long as it comes after 6/5 i don't really care, by the was Ed Kennedy lost vs Carter hands down and didn't give his concession speech till convention, lol
so take that into account, although i'm sure Clinton will have her speech of concession sooner

@newswranger:

To answer your question: No. I understand Suspend to mean Quit as well. I was really responding more to Ryan's comment about conceding not meaning concede and this campaign driving him nuts. (Looks like his comment was prophetic, btw.) Although I watched the speech last night, I'm still not certain whether she meant, "I'm not making any decisions tonight (because I'm tired and I need some rest and we don't have a live television broadcast or Blackberry signal here in the basement of this rally.)" Or, "I'm not making any decisions tonight, (because I feel like I'm in a position of power)."

I want to believe it's the former, but know and dread that it's the latter. It's all very Alice in Wonderland-like.

News report ...
"Hillary Clinton will have a conference call with "her supporters" today at 4:00PM EDT."

Oh, what-to-do, what-to-do ... ;-)

is this the market with the highest activity within short term so far?

kruijs: I can't tell. It would be intersting to know. I wonder if they keep track of that in some obscure corner of Hubdub that I don't know about yet.

She’s Still Here!
By MAUREEN DOWD
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/opinion/04dowd.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

Friday. Bah.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/04/democrats.wednesday/index.html

She probably saw the question and figured she'd wait it out. LOL

I don't think hubdub has corners, just nice round padded rooms.

I went to Hillary.com as she requested and promised her 500$H to wait til Friday. TOCM did you bail before suspending? If not I'll start warming up the water for you.LOL.

THANK YOU HILLARY!!!!

What if she quits ON 6/6/08? Does before 6/6/08 mean by midnight June 5th?

Midnight June 5, her local time -- anytime after that (say Friday, grr) will settle as no.

bummer. I put quite a bit on the losing side, as it turns out.

Now they are saying saturday, so this things is settleable right now!

This is why we cannot have a woman president. They can't ever make up their minds. She in mathematically out of it. I mathematically was never in it. Hilary and I will never concede. We are candidates. We are contenders. We are strong. We are invincible. We are woman.

I do not favor either of these candidates before the other, but I think Hillary has really shot herself in the foot on this one. Her last chance to demonstrate that she put the party above personal ambition was the night that Barack breached the magic delegate number and won the nomination. I think most people would have given her the benefit of the doubt and just viewed her hanging on as running things through until the true end of the game. By not conceding and congratulating her opponent at that time she has opened herself up to many interpretations of her motives. She has likely needlessly wasted much goodwill without affecting the outcome in any way. This is going to haunt her and the Democratic party for some time to come. The only question now is, to what degree?

Postponed till Saturday according to Washington Post.

Her speech is on Saturday but here http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4071835.ece
you can read the email she has sent out to her supporters. Does this make it a Yes?

well she did suspend her bid for president although she has not concided, The way the question reads is concide, suspend
OR quit. So it can settle as yes right now because she has suspended her Bid

I will lose on this if she does not exit today. I lose, I think. On the other hand, Ryanb37 has a very good point. I would have to agree she did suspend already. The question does list suspend. Maybe it is over. I win, I think.

Her campaign does appear to be suspended at this point, and "suspend" is a settleable-as-yes option. Does it boil down to what the meaning of "suspend" is? :-\

@infernalmachine

I read the letter through the link that you provided. That sounded like a concescion to me, Saturday's event is to thank everyone for their support. Do you think that she actually has to say the word 'concede' in order for this to settle as yes?

I have a lot of money riding on the "Yes" outcome too. But unfortunately for me, as of right now, Clinton has not conceded, suspended or quit her bid. This CNN article says it all: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/04/democrats.wednesday/index.html

On Tuesday night she said she was "waiting" to make her next move. As of now, she has not made it. On Saturday it sounds like she will. She's Hillary, though, and everything has to be about her. Including giving a lavish speech in DC she could have given Tuesday night.

@tarpash - okay, but that article was from 6/4 and the e-mail in infernalmachine's posted link is from 6/5 and it thanks her supporters and says that she will get behind Obama, the question doesn't actually say that she has to give a speech and tidy things up, she just has to concede, suspend, or quit. I'm just wondering if she actually has to say the words, or is the e-mail (linked above) enough proof that she has 'suspended' campaigning and 'concedes' that Obama has the nomination. (although I am acknowledging that she does not use those words) And, you are correct, it is ALL about her, and the wait would still be annoying even if she weren't confusing our 'mock-betting'.

I suspect that this is going to be another Spitzer-type debate now that it has been settled... Let the discussion/rants begin!!

Hi everyone,

Before getting into a debate please read the settlement info to understand why the market was settled.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

Oh I understand the clause and the intent. I happen to agree, and I benefited from the settlement, but I expect that folks (especially those who didn't experience the Spitzer-thing) will be confused... "It says on cnn.com that she WILL CONCEDE ON SATURDAY" etc. etc. etc.

All part of the fun.

The problem is that we have a time constraint. The announcement came out before the deadline. However, it said that she will suspend her bid on June 7, which is after the deadline.

Ummm... it doesn't actually say anywhere in the specified email that she is conceding, suspending, or quitting. Does anyone have a quote where the campaign has specifically said any of these things? All the letter said is that she would announce her support for Obama.

Well now we might be trying to really get down and nitpicky. Could she support her only opponent and not concede, suspend or quit? How would that work.

Hubdub does it again..why am I constntly amazed?

Right triathematician, she has done none of those things and everyone on this comments list knows it! Email me when it gets reversed because if this ridiculous decision stands I'm Done.

Back to spitzer.... I wagered based on her announcement coming before the 6th, i was in on the spitzer debate, and i agree with this settlement.... and also benefitted from it, at great risk.... if you read the earlier comments, many betting no were claiming that she would hold out for a substantially longer time, beyond this weekend.... and us yes betters were betting on a quick withdrawal from the race...

Here is the Spitzer rule: "Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective (the Spitzer clause)"

hmmm... this says 'resign'. does it apply here? she never had any position to resign from... I have never heard of any political figure resigning from their own campaign...

The Spitzer question and this question were settled in "opposite directions". No consistency. And I am not betting on any more questions that use the word "concede". Lost twice in opposite directions, and that's enough.

Re: the Spitzer rule, she hasn't said she is conceding, suspending or quitting and won't till Sat, which is what I was betting on, past the 6th as the question says.

It's wrong TOCM and you know it.

this is the last straw for me with hubdub, if it ain't settled the way it's supposed to be, i'm out and lots of others too

Bye

Indeed, the spitzer rule...as screwy as it is, has no bearring here. She has no position yo resign from.

Write Admin at contact page below.

The CNN article says that "she will make the announcement" on Saturday. Thus, according to the Spitzer rule, the settlement is based on June 7, because that is the day she will make the announcement. We have enough information to settle this market. However, the settlement should be based on the date of the announcement, not the date of an announcement about an announcement.

Imagine that she made the announcement on June 5 at 23:59, but CNN did not report that she made this announcement until June 6. In that case, we would settle based on June 5, not June 6.

she stopped running ads on wednesday, she effectively ended it all on wednesday....the fact that she wants one more prime time speech is of no consequence.... if the election would have been on friday, she would have conceeded on saturday....it's just a scheduling issue...

here's one of my favorite quotes on this:
Rep. Charles Rangel, D-New York, said, "the New York congressional delegation are with her to the end, and we thought the end was the end."

C'mon Michael, be real.
A. If she had conceded Fri. or Sat. the question still would have been No
2. In the speech today she said" today, as I suspend my campaign", and the scroll at the bottom said "Sen. Hillary Clinton suspending campaign and endorsing Obama".
How much proof do you need?

spitzer rules....
i was pointing out that she was holding out for primetime space on television....her campaign for president was ended the second they announced her speech being a concession speech....
like i argued in spitzer: if i put my two weeks notice in at work, i have quit...
if you do not follow that rule, you run into too many possibilities... what if the power would have been cut saturday, and her speech moved to sunday....don't we all know that she has already quit the race for president....and wouldn't an anouncement that she is quiting effective whenever makes it evident that she has quit?

i actually like her more now, than before...not enough to change things... but enough to bring her on board.... but not as VP... we have a lot of work to do, and someone already in the senate is very important to us... that's all i'm at liberty to say....