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What will a barrel of oil cost, in US Dollars, at the end of 2008?

Current forecast: Less than $100 (98% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Less than $100 with a probability of 98% (up 2% in last 1 day)

What will be the price of a barrel of oil at the close
of business on December 31, 2008?

Based on NYMEX pricing.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Less than $100
98%
$100-$109
1%
$110-$119
0%
$120-$129
0%
$130-$139
0%
More than $140
0%
Activity: H$310,139
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Less than $100: 16%, $100-$109: 16%, $110-$119: 16%, $120-$129: 16%, $130-$139: 20%, More than $140: 16%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Jun 11:07am PDT by deano1337
Suspended Thu 11th Sep 8:20am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Needing clarification about the pricing of oil, dates, and settlement
Unsuspended Thu 11th Sep 9:38am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Clarifications to questions made
Settlement requested Tue 14th Oct 7:48am PDT by Erik: Ohio executes Cooey
UPDATE: 10:35 AM, Tuesday, October 14, 2008
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
RICHARD COOEY


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Recent Headlines
• U.S. Supreme Court denies Cooey appeal to stop execution
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LUCASVILLE Ohio has executed a 5-foot-7, 267-pound double murderer who argued he was too fat to die humanely by lethal injection.

Richard Cooey died at 10:28 a.m. Tuesday at the Southern Ohio Correctional Facility in Lucasville.
http://www.cantonrep.com/index.php?Category=13&ID=436099&subCategoryID=0
Settlement requested Tue 14th Oct 7:49am PDT by Erik: woops...sorry, wrong market

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (580)

580 predictions

55 mins ago
jimocles predicted Less than $100 (H$50 at 98%)
56 mins ago
jimocles predicted Less than $100 (H$100 at 98%)
4 hours ago
lenganthinh predicted Less than $100 (H$100 at 95%)
16 hours ago
fundo predicted Less than $100 (H$1,000 at 91%)
20 hours ago
jpkoester1 predicted $100-$109 (H$333 at 3%)
more

Comments (5)

  2 Erik
Background asks: "What will be the price of a barrel of oil at the close
of business on December 31, 2008?"

Settlement details state: "Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 5:59pm CST (10 weeks to go)"

What's the deal?
posted 6 weeks ago
  3 mork[Power User]
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
@Erik....what are you asking about "what's the deal?"

Referring to the suspension date? Or ???

It is set before 12/31, but I would prefer it to be set a few days earlier....maybe the 24th or 26th.
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
That's a great looking graph!
posted 5 weeks ago

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