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Created Wed 4th Jun 2:15pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Considering the anticipated town hall style M & O debates, how many US time zones will be included?

Settled as No Town Hall style debate occur at all

Typically candidates criss-cross the United States in pursuit of support, $, recognition and votes. The United States is a rather wide entity with more times zones than most other countries, although the coasts tend to get the most media attention and campaigning. This election cycle has been abnormal in its duration and I'm curious now, assuming the McCain/Obama Town Hall style debates due actually occur, how many time zones will be represented in any debates that happen between June 10th and November 1st, 2008? For example if there were five debates, one each in the cities of New York City, Washington D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon the settlement would be THREE, two in Eastern Standard time and one in Central time and two in Pacific Time.

Maximum total possible for this market is 7 including the following time zones: Hawaii-Aelutian Time, Alaska Time, Pacific Time, Mountain Time, Central Time, Eastern Time and Atlantic Time (Puerto Rico & the US Virgin Is.)
Category Editor Clarification
The 2nd Presidential debate sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates is not part of this market.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Deliberate suspension date one month prior to expiration in market to add suspense.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 No Town Hall style debate occur at all
96%
Total of one time zone
3%
Total of two time zones
1%
Total of three time zones
0%
Total of four time zones
0%
Total of five time zones
0%
Total of six time zones
0%
All seven time zones represented
0%
Any other outcome not mentioned herein
0%
Activity: H$78,111
Settled as No Town Hall style debate occur at all on Mon 3rd Nov 8:38am PST

Suspend date: Wed 29th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 8:38am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 29th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: No Town Hall style debate occur at all: 5%, Total of one time zone : 5%, Total of two time zones : 15%, Total of three time zones : 30%, Total of four time zones : 20%, Total of five time zones: 10%, Total of six time zones : 5%, All seven time zones represented: 5%, Any other outcome not mentioned herein: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Jun 2:15pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Thu 2nd Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 2nd Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Thu 2nd Oct 10:18am PDT by destry[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Thu 2nd Oct 10:55am PDT by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-10-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Thu 2nd Oct 10:56am PDT by destry[Admin]
Changed Description Sun 5th Oct 9:46am PDT by destry[Admin]: show details
... and Atlantic Time (Puerto Rico & &amp; the US Virgin Is.).)<br/> <B>Category Editor Clarification</b><br/> The 2nd Presidential debate sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates is not part of this market.
Suspended Wed 29th Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 3rd Nov 8:21am PST by newswrangler[Power User]: .
This could be settled as "No Town Hall style debate occur at all ", according to the 99.9% rule -- should you so decide.
Settled as 'No Town Hall style debate occur at all' Mon 3rd Nov 8:38am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 29th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 8:38am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 29th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (119)

119 predictions

3 weeks ago
curios predicted Total of one time zone (H$20 at 2%)
3 weeks ago
subreal predicted No Town Hall style debate occur at all (H$1,000 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
divakaleigh predicted No Town Hall style debate occur at all (H$100 at 95%)
4 weeks ago
pixelpaws predicted No Town Hall style debate occur at all (H$100 at 95%)
4 weeks ago
mobiledeb35 predicted No Town Hall style debate occur at all (H$100 at 95%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 jenniandboys[Admin]
If you're wagering here, consider:
http://www.hubdub.com/m7531/Will_Obama_and_McCain_participate_in_town_hall_meetings_together
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 rbrog77
Isn't the 2nd debate between McCain and Obama a town hall type debate?
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 jenniandboys[Admin]
@rborg - Yes, its a Town hall style debate, but it doesn't count towards the settlement of this question.
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 bigken1
I do not understand on what basis (in the question) this last ruling is made. The question says nothing about this debate "not counting" towards the settlement. It is good to get an understanding, one way or another IN THE STATED QUESTION, but how can these rulings be made after the fact -- after people have already bet on the question....
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
bigken1 - this question was made before the 3 debates by the Commission on Presidential Debates was announced. when this question was made there was all the chatter about mccain asking obama to have town hall meetings. (also see link provided by jenni) after the COPD announced their schedule and format this question needed clarifyed. if it wasn't there would be some easy money made on this question. hope that helps. if not the admin can help you out. flag the question and he'll explain it.
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
you can still make a few bucks on this question. it's highly unlikely they have any more than the 3 debates. as i type this "No Town Hall style debate occur at all" is at 94%. if you think the risk is worth the gain bet $10,000 and make $287. even if they agree to another debate whats the odds it will be a town hall style? not enough reward for the risk for my taste. maybe right before it suspends, but not with 3 weeks to go.
posted 6 weeks ago

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