lucidstates 
How much will " Hancock " earn in its 5 day opening weekend? (Wednesday 2nd - Sunday 6th)
Settlement details:
As reported by www.the-numbers.com or another major mainstream news source.
Settled
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$55 million or Less |
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$56 to $65 million |
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$66 to $75 million |
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$76 million or More... |
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Suspend date: Wed 2nd Jul 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 7th Jul 8:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 2nd Jul 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: $55 million or Less: 1%, $56 to $65 million: 24%, $66 to $75 million: 40%, $76 million or More...: 35%
Action history:
lucidstates 
rooooo: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25555840/
greetings,
rooooo
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Five day release (weekend numbers are official studio estimates):
Wed: 17.3
Thurs:17.1
Fri: 18.7
Sat: 26.1
Sun: 21.1
Total == 100.3
This is WELL outside the margin of error for the studio estimates and is safe to settle as 76 million +
Sources:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-07-04&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-07-03&p=.htm
lucidstates: Please settle this question with the winning prediction being "$76 million or More..." as this film topped $100 million for the Wed-Sun period.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080706/ap_en_ot/box_office;_ylt=Atu1EYTtIiXRpchYVHE_h_5xFb8C
Thanks,
lucidstates
shojun: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=5&p=.htm - it received over $100 mill for the first 5 days of release! 
tisha
Suspend date: Wed 2nd Jul 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 7th Jul 8:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 2nd Jul 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Get widget!Predictions (374)
374 predictions
bayoubearComments (102)
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So yeah, PREPARE FOR A WAVE OF QUESTION CREATION!!! Okay, so maybe not, but I am trying :-P
$71 million in it's first 5 days = Kung Fu Panda
$68 million in it's first 5 days = Sex and the City
$152 million in it's first 5 days = Indian Jones 4
$115 million in it's first 5 days = Iron Man
$63 million in it's first 5 days = Chronicles of Narnia
$85 million in it's first 5 days = 300 ... And this film came out in March
So let's look at this film again:
Will Smith last film I Am Legend opened in December not on a Holiday weekend and grossed $91.1 million in 5 days.
July 4th Holiday Weekend openers this decade:
$52 million in it's first 5 days, 2000 = Scary Movie
$36 million in it's first 5 days, 2001 = Cats & Dogs
$87 million in it's first 5 days, 2002 = Men in Black 2
$72 million in it's first 6 days, 2003 = Terminator 3
$152 million in it's first 5 days, 2004 = Spiderman 2
$100 million in it's first 5 days, 2005 = War of the Worlds
$169 million in it's first 5 days, 2006 = Pirates of the Caribbean 3
$133 million in it's first 5 days, 2007 = Transformers
So this decade, the 4th of July weekend #1 openers have averaged: $100.125 million in the first 5 days (cept terminator 3 which was on a 6 dayer)
And one last point, Hancock needs to garner just $15.2 million per day, during the July 4th weekend, to make this mark.
Will it do it? I dunno, but man I am not willing to bet against it :-)
76mi for 5-day sounds pretty sure...
well, i know *I* am sick of him
but it doesnt seem that other ppl are - heck, even I Am Legend, a film that has pretty much only him, got 91mi in 5 days, in a common non-holyday weekend opening...
i am keeping my 76mi+
if it gets too cheap i'll buy more i guess =p
And sure, it may pick up speed through word of mouth. But really? In the course of 5 days? The only right answer here is that Hancock will make less than $55million. Chalk this one up as another "Enemy of the State" or "Wild Wild West" for Smith.
As of 06/19/08 12:05am
Hancock expected to open with $64.520 million
4TH OF JULY TRACKING: 'Hancock' Seems Destined for $140M-$150M Over Five-Day 4th of July Frame, Marking Eight Straight $100M Movies for Will Smith!
by Steve Mason
By Monday, July 7, Will Smith will be the undisputed No. 1 movie star in the world. My sources tell me that tracking for Hancock (Sony) is in the stratosphere, and its five-day gross will be, conservatively, in the $140 million-$150 million range, with a bigger number highly possible.
Posted by Nikki Finke on Thursday, Jun 26th, 2008 at 10:09PM | Permalink |
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/hancock/
Between the jittery pseudo-realism of Peter Berg's direction and the maudlin undercurrent to its hero's redemption, all Hancock can summon up is the faintest sensation of nausea.
Even Will Smith's jerky superhero (and another winning supporting turn from Jason Bateman) can't save the latter half of this film's messy script.
Hancock has about 50 minutes of action and dark, edgy humour before it veers off into cheese land.
A super-dud.
I will admit it's a long weekend. If it was a normal weekend you'd have no chance. Also it is will smith and it is a superhero movie. But I think you might have problems with it getting horrid reviews and people wanting to be outside.
Also kids are going to see "fun" movies - this is not one of those movies.
So yeah, waste all the money you'd like, but just cause the odds are amazing for anything under $76 million, there are major reasons for that, LOL, it means it ain't gonna happen.
Sure, a natural disaster could wipe out the entire east coast, and that'd kill this movie, otherwise, Will Smith will reign once again on the mega 4th of July weekend!
I see an absolute bottom of $82 - $85 million, if word of mouth is really awful, otherwise, anything over this amount is entirely possible :-D
http://www.hubdub.com/m10380/How_much_will__Hancock__earn_on_its_first_day_of_release_Wednesday_July_2nd
Enjoy people :-D
FRESH: 81 81% Kit Kittredge: An Amer…
ROTTEN: 36 36% Hancock
FRESH: 100 100% Kabluey
FRESH: 94 94% Tell No One
FRESH: 86 86% Gonzo: The Life and Wo…
Hey Lucid, that would be a cool and fun and wacky Hubdub question: Will it be reported that any natural disasters diminished Will Smith's mega 4th of July weekend?
As far as predictions Wednesday is very hard. I see 10m or less. It's a weekday and I just don't see people running to see this. I think this works to your disadvantage since the people seeing it on Wednesday will be badmouthing it very early on in the week.
Then Thurs and Fri you have the 4th and the Fireworks. That will put a dent in a movie that as I said isn't Iron Man or anything highly anticipated. Thurs night maybe if you're lucky it makes 12M. Friday I can see possibly 15M and Saturday maybe 12M again. Sunday 10M. That adds up to about 60M which I think is actually a good opening for it.
Plus if you are right, I will be as poor as you soon.
As far as rich as you... I'll start counting the money Sunday Night.
I'll probably go see the movie just because Charlize Theron is in it.
Ratings Image
2/5
Even Smith needs good material, and it's fitfully supplied here.
Full Review | comment Comment
07/01/08
Dan Lybarger
eFilmCritic.com
Ratings Image
N/A
This antihero merely spreads his suckage filmwide.
Full Review | comment Comment
07/01/08
Tricia Olszewski
Movie Babe
Ratings Image
2/4
It's like dating Britney Spears. Too much drama.
Full Review | comment Comment
07/01/08
Willie Waffle
WaffleMovies.com
Ratings Image
C+
Has a promising premise.
Full Review | comment Comment
07/01/08
Dennis Schwartz
Ozus' World Movie Reviews
Ratings Image
2.5/4
Too bad it's brought down by the most dreaded form of cinematic kryptonite %u2013 the fear of going against an audience's expectations and giving them the same old superhero song and dance.
Full Review | comment Comment
07/01/08
Charles Koplinski
Illinois Times
Ratings Image
2.25/4
Remember Wild Wild West? Well...
Full Review | comment Comment
07/01/08
@Scott... ANY film opening #1 at the box office on a 5 day weekend during this time of summer doing only $60 million is preposterous! I am amazed at your contrariness :-D ... It makes for a GREAT market though, with awesome money making potential for me and Destry and many others, hehe, so I thank you for that :-D ... And again dude, I am really glad you're taking much interest in this game, I love having opponents that square off against me and my friends, hehehe, this is soooooooo much fun, I mean it, lol :-D
But I'd like to point out a mathematical/historical fact that I made many weeks ago, and so I shall demonstrate it for you again here:
So let's look at this film again:
Will Smith last film I Am Legend opened in December not on a Holiday weekend and grossed $91.1 million in 5 days.
July 4th Holiday Weekend openers the last 1/2 a decade:
$87 million in it's first 5 days, 2002 = Men in Black 2
$72 million in it's first 6 days, 2003 = Terminator 3
$152 million in it's first 5 days, 2004 = Spiderman 2
$100 million in it's first 5 days, 2005 = War of the Worlds
$169 million in it's first 5 days, 2006 = Pirates of the Caribbean 3
$133 million in it's first 5 days, 2007 = Transformers
And remember, inflation and ridiculous growth in ticket prices during this 5 year period :-)
So yeah, I know you (scott) will be counting your money on Sunday, I just assume it'll be counting what you have left. I mean that in good fun but also in seriousness too as I truly believe that NO Will Smith superhero movie, no matter how badly it is critiqued, will do a paltry $60 million in 5 days. I mean seriously, that is just ultra unlikely in this day and age. I mean seriously, if Shrek the 3rd can make $600 million worldwide at the drop of a hat, and that movie was nothing but rehashed goat crap, then this film will easily make $76 million in 5 days, that a mere $15.2 million per day, and not much higher than your $12 million per day guesstimate.
I think Destry had it totally right: "I am guessing this movie makes 10 on Wednesday, 15 Thursday, 20 Friday, 25 Saturday, 15 Sunday"
I'll through my hat in this ring and guesstimate too: I am guessing this movie makes $12.5 to $14.0 on Wednesday, $14.7 to $15.4 on Thursday, $19.8 to $22.1 on Friday, $21.6 to $23.9 on Saturday, and $14.7 on Sunday.
This equals: $83.3 million to $90.1 million and this is slightly conservative.
Just my 2cents worth and I appreciate everyone's input thus far :-D Keep it up folks :-D
Just saw Hancock, thoroughly enjoyed it, orig schedulded for 12:00 midnight showing actually premiered @ 7:00pm due to high interest, watched it at midnight on a third screen as screens # 1 and # 2 were already full. This IS a drama with comedic elements only, not a comedy and not truly an action movie, but definately has large high action moments also. Enough explosions for the fellas and enough subtle relationship components for the ladies, I think it will do quite well.
This shows that it grossed 6.8M Tuesday.
Since we don't count that how will this be handled.
Tuesday numbers are of course not counted, and yes, considering that this film made a whopping $6.8 million in just 5 hours is AMAZING! I heard the first showings were around 7pm, so yeah, that is HUGE money!
Again, ONLY Wed-Sun will be counted. So no one needeth freaketh outeth :-P
@scott, get ready for a mad 5 days man :-D One of us will lose BIG, along with Destry and Valor and many others, hahaha, SO EXCITING :-D
I'd like to see how it does today.
That's like saying you were in a car accident but at least one bone didn't break - yet.
Truth be told, complainers ALWAYS have bigger mouths than satisfied customers! When it comes to being just obnoxious, but people who like something, usually tell their friends and co-workers but only attention hounds run around the internet bashing something.
My point is this, I've not met ANYONE yet, who's actually seen this movie, who didn't really like it! So yeah, only time will tell, but I'm confident it'll be in mine and Destry's/Valors, favor :-D
Never.
Starring Smith as a chronically hung-over, often-reckless superhero, "Hancock" is expected to give Sony Pictures its first No. 1 release of the lucrative season and gross $70 million to $80 million in its opening weekend.
Counting ticket sales from Tuesday evening previews slated for most of the 3,965 theaters showing the film this weekend, the movie's North American tally through Sunday is virtually certain to surpass $100 million, analysts predicted.
So if we subtract out the 6.8 that is still 93.2 million. I believe it is clearly obvious that the article in claiming 70-80 was referring to a traditional opening fri-sun, but this movie has wed and thursday which will account for the difference between those two statements.
Here is what I am hoping for. That on Sunday when this movie has clearly broken the 76 million mark, that you Scott will place a comment that says, I was wrong, you were right. I doubt we will see that, but if this movie doesn't make the 76 million, I will gladly post a shout on your profile saying you are the king of all movie predictions.
#1 ... $17,386,366 ... Hancock ... Total to date: $24,221,400 (Though ONLY $17,386,366 counts towards THIS question at hand.)
#2 ..... $6,709,436 ... Wall-E ...... Total to date: $86,311,330
#3 ..... $3,588,305 ... Wanted ... Total to date: $65,500,990
Hey, check out my newest market, it concerns all these 3 movies:
http://www.hubdub.com/m10537/Which_movie_will_earn_the_most_by_the_end_of_its_4th_week_in_release_Hancock_Wanted_and_WallE
No one has to admit wrong or right. This is a game and we're all having a great time :-D ... But for anyone desperately needing to keep pinpoint track of Hancock's amazing (so far) performance, you can go here: www.the-numbers.com
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i465bcd9a39c25c0b05e8ad9164a4e250
"Hancock" hits the Fourth of July holiday with $41.3 million in boxoffice loot already in the bank.
The Will Smith starrer grossed an estimated $17.1 million Thursday, following hauls of $17.4 million on its first official day in release in 3,965 locations Wednesday and $6.8 million from 3,680 "preview" playdates on Tuesday night.
Inspired by a graphic-novel series, the action pic seems well on track to cross $100 million domestically through Sunday.
.........................
I like what the Hollywood Reporter recognized in its article, that Tuesday was considered a PREVIEW and that the first OFFICIAL day of release was Wednesday and though it's topped $41.3 million, only about $34.5 counts towards the total for THIS question.
So here is where we stand folks:
Wednesday $17.4 million
Thursday $17.1 million (unofficial)
Total: $34.5 (unofficial)
To go to reach $76 million or More: $41.5 million ... And it has 3 more days, and those being the likeliest biggest days, to do this :-D
Man I am on the edge of my seat awaiting Sundays numbers :-D
17.1 on Thursday
-----------------------------
34.5 two days
76 million - 34.5 = 41.5 million left to achieve
3 days Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (two of the three biggest days) movie only has to average 14 million to reach this number. I am thinking it might hit the 76 number after Saturdays numbers come in.
Tell me this. Out of all of the 4th of July weekends how many times has the actual 4th been on a Friday night - the strongest movie night of the weekend?
I think you will be shocked at how low the box office results will be for the Friday. Then I think Saturday you may get a bump. Then you have the Sunday problem of people going home after a long weekend - they don't want to go to the movies.
I think we will have a great idea of how this movie will do after we seen the results for Friday. If this movie does 10-15 million on Friday, then the 76 number is almost a certain.
One thing you didn't factor in is that the price of gas is more than normal and aaa predicts 400,000 people will not travel this year as they did in years past. So that means more people staying local.
Hey, how was everyone's 4th?? MINE ROCKED!!! I spent the whole day (2pm - 12am) at our the first ever Belltown Block Party, put on by Mars Hill Church... Man, there were like 8 local bands, totally kicked ass, tons of food and drinks and people. I had a great 4th and then the Elliott Bay Fireworks to end it all... A really awesome day.
Hope everyone else had an awesome 4th and don't have too bad a hang overs when you read this tomorrow or today, lol :-D
Thats 52M so far.
You need another 24M to win.
Bah.
It's been a great fight and I've loved all the dialog :-D ... Ready for next weekend man? I challenge you sir to a 4th duel!! *slaps face with a floppy glove* Put up yer dukes!
:-D
This is Will Smith's 5th #1 4th of July opener, and second best ever opener for the mega star, with last years I Am Legend being his best, and is his 8th straight $100 million blockbuster! Also a new all time record for any star.
I've asked for Settlement based upon the fact that $101.5 million is sooooooo far ahead of $76 million, that it cannot change.
THANKS EVERYONE for such amazing amounts of bets and such active dialog here on the comments board :-D
It's been awesome! And remember, next week we have Hellboy2 and then soon will be THE DARK KNIGHT :-D
Congrats to Destry and Lucid. Enjoy my money.
Lucid how about some more Dark Knight questions and some of the other big ones coming up like HellBoy. HellBoy could be huge but I don't know how many saw the first one...
@scott, I will add some more movie Q's, for Batman, Hellboy2, etc... Thanks for your interest and active participation :-D I really enjoy sparring with ya man :-D
NEVER bet against Will Smith.
http://www.mtv.com/movies/news/articles/1590478/story.jhtml
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