
Which happens first? Phoenix Lander finds ice on Mars or Karl Rove removed from Fox News?
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/06/mars-phoenix-tw.html
Background:>
(Just a bit of play on words and HD whimsy...)
Couldn't help but notice the odd juxtaposition between Rover(lander)/Rove and Mars/Murdoch.
Market is speculating whether Mars Phoenix Lander will find ice on the planet of Mars, or whether Karl Rove, the pundit/commentator be "put on ice" by Fox News.
For purposes of settlement, any outcome that would result in Karl Rove no longer being a live, active commentator on Fox News prior to expiration of this market would qualify.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Lander doesn't find ice & Rove stays on Fox |
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Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox |
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Lander doesn't find ice & Rove is put on ice |
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Lander finds ice & Rove put on ice |
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Any other outcome |
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Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 7:59am PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 20th Jun 8:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 19th Jun 6:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Lander doesn't find ice & Rove stays on Fox : 20%, Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox: 20%, Lander doesn't find ice & Rove is put on ice: 20%, Lander finds ice & Rove put on ice: 20%, Any other outcome: 20%
Action history:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7465419.stm
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 7:59am PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 20th Jun 8:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 19th Jun 6:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (32)
32 predictions
Comments (11)
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Thank you for the erudite clarification of my error, yes Jen, my intention was the craft that just recently landed, the Lander, which I have now given the honorary nickname of "Rover." Will that suffice? I was merely trying to have a spot of fun and make a play on the similar words between Rover and Rove and finding ice or being put on ice due to Rove's recent subpoena and how this might affect his employment. If one of the long lost Rovers did decide to mosey over to the Lander, that would be a story indeed. Also regarding the other market about the Lander/Rover not being equipped to find life, I suppose if some life form waddles, walks, slithers, flies or otherwise approaches the Lander and is caught on film, it would seem to be fairly conclusive, even though it's not in the spectrum of the anticipated testing. You know, like the scene in Transformers from Mars of the short video clip that showed the Transformer attacking the craft? lol. I know it's far fetched, I hope I've clarified this to your satisfaction.
May I request an expiration date of 12/31/08 please?
Thank you.
I usually respond to everyone's emails, but for example today I had around 75 when I first woke up (damn you Clinton!!!). Anyway I've fixed up the market best I can seems fit to work. Although I did have to significantly change the market question text as many users would probably get confused by it.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
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