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Which happens first? Phoenix Lander finds ice on Mars or Karl Rove removed from Fox News?

Settled as Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox

http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/06/mars-phoenix-tw.html

Background:

Rover find ice on Mars or Rove put on ice by Murdoch
(Just a bit of play on words and HD whimsy...)


Couldn't help but notice the odd juxtaposition between Rover(lander)/Rove and Mars/Murdoch.


Market is speculating whether Mars Phoenix Lander will find ice on the planet of Mars, or whether Karl Rove, the pundit/commentator be "put on ice" by Fox News.


For purposes of settlement, any outcome that would result in Karl Rove no longer being a live, active commentator on Fox News prior to expiration of this market would qualify.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Lander doesn't find ice & Rove stays on Fox
19%
Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox
26%
Lander doesn't find ice & Rove is put on ice
17%
Lander finds ice & Rove put on ice
23%
Any other outcome
16%
Activity: H$19,893
Settled as Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox on Fri 20th Jun 8:03am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 7:59am PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 20th Jun 8:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 19th Jun 6:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Lander doesn't find ice & Rove stays on Fox : 20%, Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox: 20%, Lander doesn't find ice & Rove is put on ice: 20%, Lander finds ice & Rove put on ice: 20%, Any other outcome: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Jun 2:48pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Thu 5th Jun 9am PDT by skipper[Power User]: Flagged by super user: The piece of NASA technology that recently landed is NOT a ROVER, but a LANDER; is this question asking if a previous ROVER (eg Spirit/Opportunity) will find ice? I feel the wording is unclear and misleader (not intentionally)
Unsuspended Thu 5th Jun 1:08pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 20th Jun 7:16am PDT by jamalpeter: Per the New York Times, BBC, etc.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7465419.stm
Settled as 'Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox' Fri 20th Jun 8:03am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/06/mars-phoenix-tw.html

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 7:59am PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 20th Jun 8:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 19th Jun 6:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (32)

32 predictions

23 weeks ago
jimbo predicted Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox (H$50 at 26%)
23 weeks ago
eric76 predicted Lander finds ice & Rove put on ice (H$50 at 12%)
24 weeks ago
mikefez predicted Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox (H$100 at 59%)
24 weeks ago
yonemoto predicted Lander finds ice & Rove stays on Fox (H$2,860 at 41%)
24 weeks ago
nightflylester predicted Lander doesn't find ice & Rove stays on Fox (H$20 at 19%)
more

Comments (11)

Rover/Rove ... ice/iced ....
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 owl1
Very cute question(if it doesn't get flagged by a superuser for their opinion of correct odds like 90% of the last questions, oops wrong odds it should be 88%)
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 skipper[Power User]
Well.. the one that recently landed is a LANDER it does not rove, so is this asking if any of the rovers that landed before that are still ROVING will find ice? ifso the percentages are off... to suspend or not to suspend?
posted 25 weeks ago
Its just a technicality. Just let someone clarify that for the question "rover" refers to the Phoenix lander. We can clearly get to the common sense point of the question. I don't think it will be a problem, but we should certainly have a clarification in the market about that.
posted 25 weeks ago
  5 skipper[Power User]
Well it may be common sense to you, but what about someone who doesn't speak/type native English, secondly I almost bet on "Rover does not find ice" because a ROVER probably wouldn't; so a technicality, but one that changes the whole meaning of the question.
posted 25 weeks ago
@ skipper

Thank you for the erudite clarification of my error, yes Jen, my intention was the craft that just recently landed, the Lander, which I have now given the honorary nickname of "Rover." Will that suffice? I was merely trying to have a spot of fun and make a play on the similar words between Rover and Rove and finding ice or being put on ice due to Rove's recent subpoena and how this might affect his employment. If one of the long lost Rovers did decide to mosey over to the Lander, that would be a story indeed. Also regarding the other market about the Lander/Rover not being equipped to find life, I suppose if some life form waddles, walks, slithers, flies or otherwise approaches the Lander and is caught on film, it would seem to be fairly conclusive, even though it's not in the spectrum of the anticipated testing. You know, like the scene in Transformers from Mars of the short video clip that showed the Transformer attacking the craft? lol. I know it's far fetched, I hope I've clarified this to your satisfaction.
posted 25 weeks ago
When's the expiration date (it disappears when suspended)? If it's far enough away, then this question just needs an edit to the background text explaining the Lander/Rover thing. Otherwise it's a great question and hopefully will be back on line soon.
posted 25 weeks ago
@ skipper,

May I request an expiration date of 12/31/08 please?

Thank you.
posted 25 weeks ago
Unfortunately superusers can't unsuspend a market they've suspended. It has to be an admin. I've sent a flag about this question asking it to be "cleaned up" about rovers and landers and then re-opened ASAP. Maybe if you (valornhonor) did the same, and asked for the suspend date, it would happen sooner.
posted 25 weeks ago
  10 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

I usually respond to everyone's emails, but for example today I had around 75 when I first woke up (damn you Clinton!!!). Anyway I've fixed up the market best I can seems fit to work. Although I did have to significantly change the market question text as many users would probably get confused by it.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 25 weeks ago
Thanks Ryan, kind of takes the punch out of my pun, but thanks, at least it's accurate now.
posted 25 weeks ago

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