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How much will "The Dark Knight" earn in its opening weekend? (July 18th, 19th & 20th)

Settled as $86 million or More...

Dark Knight, the newest Batman movie, is opening this weekend. Based on advance ticket sales, which are currently 3-times those sold for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, it is going to be a huge one!!

In fact, estimates so far have been that Dark Knight could break the record for largest opening weekend in movie history, currently held by Spiderman 3 with a $150 million domestic opening haul. Heath Ledger's fans are obviously flocking big time to see the movie, but the movies 2 hour 32 min length might turn some people off. Can you predict how much this movie is going to make in its opening weekend?

This question asks, how much do you think the new Batman summer blockbuster movie "The Dark Knight" will earn in its first three days of release at the North America Box Office (July 18th, 19th and 20th, 2008)?
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

$70 million or Less...
0%
$70 to $75 million
0%
$76 to $80 million
1%
$81 to $85 million
2%
$86 million or More...
97%
Activity: H$78,297
Settled as $86 million or More... on Mon 21st Jul 1:16am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by www.the-numbers.com or another major mainstream news source. Predictions settles as such: If for example it earns $75.999 million, then the "$70 to $75 million" WILL WIN, not the "$76 to $80 million". It must at least reach $76 million even, in order for "$76 million to $80 million" prediction to win. Reason for the starting percentages: HSX and some other sources, are collectively predicting in the range of $77 - $80 million for Fri, Sat, and Sun as of 06/04/08.

Suspend date: Sat 19th Jul 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Mon 21st Jul 1:16am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 19th Jul 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: $70 million or Less...: 5%, $70 to $75 million: 27%, $76 to $80 million: 36%, $81 to $85 million: 27%, $86 million or More...: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Jun 4:15pm PDT by lucidstates
Suspended Sat 19th Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 20th Jul 4:35pm PDT by lucidstates: Please Settle this question with the winner being: "$86 million or More..."

This film did an all time highest opening weekend box office of $155.34 MILLION!!

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.php

Thanks,

Lucidstates
Settled as '$86 million or More...' Mon 21st Jul 1:16am PDT by tisha[Admin]: This film did an all time highest opening weekend box office of $155.34 MILLION!!

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.php
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by www.the-numbers.com or another major mainstream news source. Predictions settles as such: If for example it earns $75.999 million, then the "$70 to $75 million" WILL WIN, not the "$76 to $80 million". It must at least reach $76 million even, in order for "$76 million to $80 million" prediction to win. Reason for the starting percentages: HSX and some other sources, are collectively predicting in the range of $77 - $80 million for Fri, Sat, and Sun as of 06/04/08.... read all

 

Predictions (166)

166 predictions

6 weeks ago
innerdemons predicted $86 million or More... (H$500 at 97%)
6 weeks ago
thefishfamily1 predicted $86 million or More... (H$383 at 98%)
6 weeks ago
thefishfamily1 predicted $86 million or More... (H$100 at 98%)
6 weeks ago
m3ga predicted $81 to $85 million (H$5 at 1%)
6 weeks ago
glcooper predicted $81 to $85 million (H$20 at 1%)
more

Comments (10)

This movies gonna be freakin' HUGE!!!
posted 11 weeks ago
HSX Update:

As of 06/19/08 12:08am

The Dark Knight expected to open with $76.286 million
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 tisha[Admin]
@lucidstates sorry hope u don't mind but I moved some of your background info to settlement details so I could externally market the site
posted 6 weeks ago
  4 scott
As of today expected to do 130M this weekend and is already selling out in advance. Probably will be one of the biggest openings in history.
posted 6 weeks ago
@Tisha, it's cool, whatever you gotta do :-D I'm just happy to be involved :-D
posted 6 weeks ago
I love it when they ask, Will The Running Time Turn Some Off? HAH! Lemme think, Umm, Titanic :-D
posted 6 weeks ago
WOW!!! BIGGEST SINGLE DAY GROOS IN HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

$66.4 MILLION for Friday ALONE!!!

This film should become the Highest Ever Grossing film in an opening weekend!!!
posted 5 weeks ago
WOW!!! All time highest ever opening weekend Box Office of $155.340 MILLION!!!!!!!!
posted 5 weeks ago
  9 scott
Shoulda bet more than 6900 on it...
posted 5 weeks ago
Hahaha, CONGRATS scott :-D YOU DA MAN! I lost a few hundred on this one! MAN was I frikkin' wrong!! :-P
posted 5 weeks ago

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