valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
Greater on 11/1/08, avg. US price of 2 gallons of gasoline or avg share price of all these airlines?
The approx price of gas on 11/1/08 was $2.50, two gallons fetched about $5.00. Avg. airline stock price in this mini-portfolio was about $13.23.
Background:
Currently the US Airlines are being pummeled by the price of Jet Fuel A, aka kerosene, or jet fuel. The share prices of airlines reflect this drama and the price of fuel continues to escalate with no apparent end in sight. On the last day of trading at 11:59pm PST, which will be greater the combined average stock price of all of these airlines? Or, the US average price of 2 gallons of gasoline?
Here are the websites that I'm using for settlement; www.bigcharts.com, and simply inputting the ticker symbols for these airlines, and this website is the one I used to quantify the current 10 largest airlines: http://www.transtats.bts.gov/.
For purposes of settlement any of these airlines that are still in business on 11/1/08 will be included in the calculation, some may have merged or folded by then, but any that remain will be used for calculation purposes.
For the average price of US gasoline I'm using this site: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp, checking on the evening of 11/1/08, I'll accept whatever is the most recent day's price that is displayed.
Tickers, share prices and sample math will be shown in comments section.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
|
|
Avg price 2 gallons gas/US > avg group of stox |
|
||
|
|
Avg price 2 gallons gas/US = avg group of stox |
|
||
|
|
Avg price 2 gallons gas/US < avg group of stox |
|
||
|
|
Any other outcome... all stop flying? |
|
Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: last Sunday 4:33am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 1st Nov 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Avg price 2 gallons gas/US > avg group of stox : 45%, Avg price 2 gallons gas/US = avg group of stox: 5%, Avg price 2 gallons gas/US < avg group of stox : 45%, Any other outcome... all stop flying?: 5%
Action history:
valornhonor 
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: The approx price of gas on 11/1/08 was $2.50, two gallons fetched about $5.00. Avg. airline stock price in this mini-portfolio was about $13.23.
Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: last Sunday 4:33am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 1st Nov 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (77)
77 predictions
zarjayComments (9)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
Related tags
More questions by
valornhonor
174 settled, 114 voided
Here are the tickers and sample stock prices today:
American Airlines
American Airlines AMR $7.90
Southwest Airlines LUV $14.30
United Airlines UAUA $10.22
Delta Airlines DAL $6.98
Continental Airlines CAL $15.45
Northwest Airlines NWA $8.16
US Airways LCC $4.69
Jetblue JBLU $4.31
AirTran AAI $3.37
Alaska Airlines ALK $21.09
Combined this group, @ 1 share each would be valued at $96.47 or $9.65 (rounded)for an average price. Gas today on average was $3.97/gallon so 2 gallons would = $7.95, so currently the average group price beats the price of two gallons of gas, but if the stock group dropped another 9% and fuel increased 9% there would be parity.
arrgh.. all that typing and I tripped up something simple, thanks for catching it, YES, my intent was that the Blue, third option would show a "<" symbol, not an ">" symbol, you're correct, I will ask that it be corrected.
I know long term wagers are not as sexy as betting on DJIA up or down or sports, but here is an interesting update on this market I made, three weeks ago... checking this morning this "basket" of stocks is down nearly 25% in just three weeks from a starting point of $9.65 average for the group of ten carriers down to only $7.41 for the group average, a bloodletting of 25% of value in only three weeks, no carrier was spared, they all declined, further checking the avg. gas price now at $4.079/gallon, so CURRENTLY two gallons @ $8.158 is already beating the group of shares by a 10% margin. Now perhaps the airlines will all start doing much better this year and perhaps the price of gas will drop precipitously and perhaps the next President won't be a former Senator... but it seems unlikely.
On a related note I'm going to try and come up with a wager about Schwinn and Rockport as more people will be using these kinds of conveyance... I suspect.
Please log in or join to add a comment