Created Thu 5th Jun 3:06pm PDT by

bayoubear [Admin]

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

What type of experience will Obama's VP nominee have?

Settled as Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080823/D92NVQA01.html

Background:

OK...one more time, and if this doesn't work, I'm giving up on this topic!

Everyone knows that Obama doesn't have a lot of experience and needs someone on the ticket to help him with that and also who will have some expertise in other areas. So regardless of male or female, old or young, etc., what experience will his nominee have?

Just to clarify:
Elected State Official--refers only to current or former elected Governors, Lt. Governors, or other elected statewide positions...not state representatives and such.

Elected Federal Official--refers to both current or former Senators and Representatives.

Federal Administrator--refers to current or former appointed Cabinet officials, and other agency directors (such as FBI, CIA, etc.)

Military Officers--Refers only to higher ranking officers, such as Major and up (Lt. Commander in the navy), either current or retired.

Key Corporate Officer--Refers to being a current or former CEO or other chief officer or owner of a major corporation or non-profit agency. This doesn't refer to honorary positions or smaller businesses, such as your own law firm or public relations company. We're talking about something like Romney's Olympic experience, a major company like Alcoa or Ford, or other such entity.

None of these--Someone from another field not mentioned, such as a university professor or college president, a star athlete or coach, a celebrity, etc. Again, current or former.

Two or more of these areas of experience (State, Federal, Admin, Military, Corporate) --anyone who has current or former experience in any two or more of these areas, for example, Carter would have been both a governor and military officer.

Clarification: Two of these refers only to: State, Federal, Admin, Military and Corporate. It is exclusive of the "none" option

This is an event based question, therefore moving suspension date to beginning of convention. Question will be settled upon announcement.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Examples of how market would be settled:

Settles as
Hillary Clinton Elected Federal
John Edwards Elected Federal
Joe Biden Elected Federal
Christopher Dodd Elected Federal
Tom Daschle Elected Federal
Lee Hamilton Elected Federal
Wesley Clark Military
Andy Stern NONE
Kathleen Sebelius State
Ed Rendell State
Brian Schweitzer State
Mike Easley State
Janet Napolitano State
Jim Webb TWO
Bill Richardson TWO
Ted Strickland TWO
Mark Warner TWO
Sam Nunn TWO
Al Gore TWO
Evan Bayh TWO
Bill Nelson TWO
Michael Bloomberg TWO
Anthony Zinni TWO
Chuck Hagel TWO

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Nominee is or was Elected State Official

11%

Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official

68%

Nominee is or was Federal Administrator

Nominee is or was Military Officer

Nominee is or was a key Corporate Officer

Nominee has none of these areas of exp.

Nominee has two or more of these areas of exp.

14%

Activity: H$29,557

Settled as Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official on Sat 23rd Aug 7:21am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 23rd Aug 7:21am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Nominee is or was Elected State Official: 21%, Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official: 11%, Nominee is or was Federal Administrator: 11%, Nominee is or was Military Officer: 10%, Nominee is or was a key Corporate Officer: 11%, Nominee has none of these areas of exp.: 5%, Nominee has two or more of these areas of exp.: 31%

Action history:

Created Thu 5th Jun 3:06pm PDT by

bayoubear [Admin]

Clarified Fri 11th Jul 11:06pm PDT by

ryanj

: The market settlement details have been edited to include Jenni's list of examples of how the market would settle.

Suspended Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Sat 2nd Aug 8:47am PDT by

destry [Admin]

: This is an event based question, therefore moving suspension date to beginning of convention. Question will be settled upon announcement.

Clarified Sat 2nd Aug 8:47am PDT by

destry [Admin]

: This is an event based question, therefore moving suspension date to beginning of convention. Question will be settled upon announcement.

Suspended Fri 22nd Aug 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official' Sat 23rd Aug 7:21am PDT by

destry [Admin]

: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080823/D92NVQA01.html

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Predictions (85)

85 predictions

15 weeks ago

jbolli predicted Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official (H$1,000 at 54%)

15 weeks ago

jbolli predicted Nominee is or was Elected Federal Official (H$500 at 46%)

15 weeks ago

cognos [Power User]

predicted Nominee is or was Federal Administrator (H$50 at 1%)

15 weeks ago

cognos [Power User]

predicted Nominee is or was Military Officer (H$50 at 2%)

15 weeks ago

cognos [Power User]

predicted Nominee is or was a key Corporate Officer (H$50 at 1%)

Comments (18)

bayoubear [Admin]

I've tried to fix this question to avoid problems that have been raised by the earlier version...please do not void this one.

Thanks

posted 25 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

Good job breaking it all down.

posted 25 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

I was wondering if someone could breakdown the list of potential vp candidates and show us which qualities they have as they apply to above question, that would be a great addition to wagering on this question.

posted 25 weeks ago

ryanj

That's crazy talk do you know how many VP candidates there are? I applaud anyone who would do that, but it ain't no easy task.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

posted 25 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Well I had already started doing it but am not convinced I'd want to share all that hard work. If you want to know, you should do it yourself! :)

(Tall, good looking, mathematicians who send me flowers may be able to take a peek though)

posted 25 weeks ago

randburg

I guess Hillary would count in the two or more category: state senator and former first lady. In fact "former first lady" would probably count as a star athelete, coach, AND celebrity.

GADS, that word celebrity again...

posted 25 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Interesting thought...Hillary should only really count one area of experience, as an elected Federal official, unless you do want to consider being First Lady as a "celebrity" position....

posted 25 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

I had second thoughts as I envisioned fights at settlement (one of my least favorite aspects of hubdub).. Here's my list. Perhaps we can discuss any issues anyone has with it now and avoid arguments down the road?

Settles as
Hillary Clinton Elected Federal
John Edwards Elected Federal
Joe Biden Elected Federal
Christopher Dodd Elected Federal
Tom Daschle Elected Federal
Lee Hamilton Elected Federal
Wesley Clark Military
Andy Stern NONE
Kathleen Sebelius State
Ed Rendell State
Brian Schweitzer State
Mike Easley State
Janet Napolitano State
Jim Webb TWO
Bill Richardson TWO
Ted Strickland TWO
Mark Warner TWO
Sam Nunn TWO
Al Gore TWO
Evan Bayh TWO
Bill Nelson TWO
Michael Bloomberg TWO
Anthony Zinni TWO
Chuck Hagel TWO

posted 25 weeks ago

mork

Good Job Jenni !
and they said it couldn't be done.
You consistently impress.

posted 25 weeks ago

randburg

@jenni -- Great and clear clarifications, but two days after posting the prediction? Hopefully no one got hurt...

posted 25 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Thanks Jenni.....Great Job...

posted 25 weeks ago

Erik

sure wish there was a choice such as: "Nominee has more experience than Obama"...<sigh>

posted 25 weeks ago

jake

HIllary Clinton served as a member of the Board of Directors for Walmart. Would that be considered a "key corporate officer"?

posted 20 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

No - she just served on the board, but wasn't a CEO, CFO or some other major position. If you look at the above (comment #8) list, Hillary will settle as Elected Federal Official.

posted 20 weeks ago

smidge76

I don't think I'm going to wager on this one, because it's making my head spin. However, I do think one area could use some clarification. Everyone keeps talking about "celebrity" as a possible category for someone falling into the "two or more" category. I think that is a mistake. Celebrity is not it's own category...it falls under the "none of these" categories. A person can be "none of these" and "two of these" at the same time. I realize that celebrity was specifically mentioned under the "none of these" category, and that the writer even stated that Ronald Reagan would qualify as "two or more" for being both a celebrity and a governor. I think that is going to be a problem. Very few people begin their career in politics. Almost everyone had some job while climbing up the ladder. I think you might be opening this up to an argument when settlement time comes around. For example, Clinton was an attorney, and first lady before becoming senator. If she weren't senator, she would be "none of these." That doesn't mean that she belongs in two categories, in my opinion. It would make just about everyone fit that category, and what fun is that. I think it would be wise to clarify this now before the cussing starts. :) (Jenni's list is thorough, but I don't know that anyone would have predicted that Dick Cheney, serving as Bush's vetter would nominate himself for the role, so you never know. If I remember, Al Gore was a surprise back in 1992 as well.)

posted 19 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

@smidge76 - Yes, this one could get dicey at settlement. I was trying to help with the above list, but you're right, there could always be someone off the radar. Hopefully they are on the list and we won't have to fight about it!

I would clarify, however, that bayoubear's comment about "celebrity" was indeed a leftover from a previous version of this market. A celebrity turned governor would not settle as "both". Only as state official. I will ask Tisha to clarify and to remove the confusing part of that background.

posted 19 weeks ago

tisha

Please note the following edit of background text:
Two or more of these areas of experience--anyone who has current or former experience in any two or more of these areas, for example, Ronald Reagan could have qualified as both a governor and as a celebrity. Carter would have been both a governor and military officer.

Changed to:
Two or more of these areas of experience (State, Federal, Admin, Military, Corporate) --anyone who has current or former experience in any two or more of these areas, for example, Carter would have been both a governor and military officer.

Clarification: Two of these refers only to: State, Federal, Admin, Military and Corporate. It is exclusive of the "none" option

posted 19 weeks ago

newswrangler [Power User]

This question has been reopened.

posted 17 weeks ago

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