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Will a video or tape of Michelle Obama saying "blame whitey" turn up before the election?

Settled as No

My first version of this question was voided due to odds being set incorrectly. I really wasn't sure where to set the odds, so I appreciate the suggestions from the hard working staff of Hubdub.
(To save space in question details, please see official definitions of racism in first comment below.)

While Michelle Obama is not running for President, Barak Obama has stated that she is his most trusted adviser. As such, her opinions and influence become more important as a potential first lady.

Is the existence of a racist audio tape a reality that will hurt Barak Obama's chances of becoming President? Or is this an complete falsehood concocted by the Republicans to discredit Obama's campaign?

Possible example of alleged racism:
The tape exists:
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/06/02/michelle-obama-and-louis-farrakhan-take-on-whitey/

The tape doesn't exist:
http://www.chron.com/commons/persona.html?newspaperUserId=desperado&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3AdesperadoPost%3A22b7f3fe-24ad-4bc5-868c-b3798f622612


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
I would prefer this to be settled with major mainstream news source using words such as racist, or racism in a headline or first paragraph of any major news event concerning this question. Obscure bloggers looking for net traffic do not count.

I wanted to be more specific about words (i.e. ...blame whitey) but some people felt it I was being unfair to a potential First Lady, since this is currently only an allegation and no proof has been furnished.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
4%
No
96%
Activity: H$54,505
Settled as No on Tue 4th Nov 5:59pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 5:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 5th Jun 6:35pm PDT by chatarra
Settlement requested Tue 4th Nov 5:57pm PST by chatarra: I humbly ask for this question to be settled as "No". No hard evidence has ever been produced to support the allegations.
Settled as 'No' Tue 4th Nov 5:59pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 5:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (51)

51 predictions

10 weeks ago
kumicho predicted No (H$22 at 86%)

Comments (12)

  1 chatarra
For me, racism is like pornography - I cannot quite describe it, but I know it when I see or hear it.
Wikipedia has a broad based definition using multiple sources to describe racism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism
According to the Oxford English Dictionary, racism is a belief or ideology that all members of each racial group possess characteristics or abilities specific to that race, especially to distinguish it as being either superior or inferior to another racial group or racial groups. The Merriam-Webster's Dictionary defines racism as a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular racial group, and that it is also the prejudice based on such a belief. The Macquarie Dictionary defines racism as: "the belief that human races have distinctive characteristics which determine their respective cultures, usually involving the idea that one's own race is superior and has the right to rule or dominate others."
posted 25 weeks ago
Will repost the same article, because I think it is relevant here:
http://johnrussell.newsvine.com/_news/2008/06/02/1532427-larry-johnson-clinton-blogger-promise-of-michelle-obamafarrakhan-video-falls-flat-

Also, your question has become much more subjective now. The problem with ponography/racism is that although 'we know it when we see it', everyone draws the line differently. Personally, I'm fine with letting it ride and keeping our fingers crossed, but it does open up the market to more ... discussion...
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
I think it would be better if you just asked the question you'd wanted to ask in your previously voided market. Because as Jenni correctly states racism is going to be something that is subjective. Would you be alright if I amended the market to say "blame whitey?"

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 chatarra
RyanJ - Yes I am fine with you amending my question. Since the term Racism is subjective, then this question will be harder to quantify without an absolute term. If I need to repost the question - just let me know.

I work (4) 12's over the next 4 days and I know myself. I need to be careful on how I word things after a long day. Sometimes it comes across more grumpy / cranky than I really intend.
posted 25 weeks ago
  5 corky
I have a question for hubub. I posted an IDENTICAL question, merely substituting the words 'Cindy McCain' for the words 'Michelle Obama', and it was voided on the grounds that the question was too ambiguous. So the obvious question is, why is this question still posted by Hubdub, when my question was voided?
posted 23 weeks ago
  6 mork[Power User]
Corky,
I notice that this question and the one you had voided are remarkably similar.
One thing I did notice though is that this question has fairly specific details in the settlement details.
I am not sure if yours did or not because that information has been replaced on yours with the reason of it going void.


posted 23 weeks ago
@corky - Actually this market started being about the purported "Whitey" tape. We had some discussions about the initial odds and when the author reposted they changed to this "racism" language. I wasn't keen on the new language because racism is very subjective and hard to define. And in fact comment #3, Ryan asks to edit the question back to the original wording... Not sure why that never happened (although its probably too late now).

Perhaps if you tied your market to a news story that suggested such a thing might happen,or the market could be created to be more specific?
posted 23 weeks ago
  8 corky
I just reworded the McCain analog question to be more specific, in accordance with Hubdub's counsel, and also put the opening odds where Hubdub suggested they be put for the Obama analog question. That should make everyone happy.
posted 23 weeks ago
  9 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

The creator asked for the re-edit, two weeks ago and the last prediction was made two weeks ago. So I will red-edit the market. Sorry I'd missed this I usually try to keep up on all the markets, but I'll admit as our userbase has grown so has the volume of comments. Anyway though the markets now's been edited. If any user wants there predictions voided due to the confusion please contact and I will do so.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 22 weeks ago
  10 corky
Hubdub did something TERRIFIC today, and I ask that they do a second terrific thing. The terrific thing that Hubdub did today is they removed the question I posed about whether a video or tape would surface in which Cindy McCain uses the term 'blackey.' Hubdub was correct and admirable to do this, because there is NO EVIDENCE supporting that smear. I now ask that Hubdub do a second terrific thing, and remove this Michelle Obama 'blame whitey' question, because there is NO EVIDENCE that such a video or tape exists. In fact, Hubdub administrator Jenniandtheboys characterized the allegation of the existence of such a video or tape as a 'smear.' Everyone here knows that there exists at least one link supporting most any hateful allegation one can make, because there is no shortage of hate sites on the internet. Again, I BEG Hubdub to prevent such hateful smears to be advanced on this site. Neither I, NOR Chatarra, nor anyone else on this site, should be allowed to use this site for rank, putrid political smears. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
posted 22 weeks ago
  11 dieseldog
HEY DESTRY HAVE YOU READ THESE COMMENTS. not saying you had anything to do with this. just another example of things not being equal-fair.
posted 22 weeks ago
  12 destry[Admin]
I have followed this, I haven't commented because Jenni, Mork, and Ryan seemed to be doing an excellent job. The difference was that there was a news story from multiple sources referencing this "whitey" claim. While there wasn't any sources for the Cindy McCain question. One of the rules of Hubdub is that we try to create questions which are centered around news articles.
posted 22 weeks ago

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