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Will Nigel remember his anniversary today (6/6)?

Settled as No

Whilst he did remember it, I only received a card, no flowers or gift before midnight on 6th. Certainly less than £5. Sorry for anyone who lost money! (p.s. he was back from London)

Background:

Clearly they've been busy lately:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/04/AR2008060400939.html
http://venturebeat.com/2008/06/04/punditwatch-interesting-fun-but-slightly-flawed/
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/punditwatch_techcrunch_always_wrong_sai_usually_right

But Nigel has something else important going on.. Will he remember that today is his 5th anniversary?

To settle as yes, he must give a card, flowers or gift (worth more than 10$ or 5pounds -- a box of cereal does not count!) to Lesley before midnight tonight (UK time).

Hubdub staff are NOT permitted to bet on this question although they should feel free to harass him about it!

Nigel, here are some hints:
5th WEDDING ANNIVERSARY
Traditional Anniversary Gift: Wood
Modern Anniversary Gift: Silverware
Travel Anniversary Gift Ideas: Airline Tickets, Cruise


Settlement details: As determined by Lesley.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
77%
No
23%
Activity: H$2,947
Settled as No on Sun 8th Jun 11:32am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 7th Jun 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 8th Jun 11:32am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 7th Jun 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Fri 6th Jun 7:18am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 6th Jun 9:51pm PDT by Erik: This Should be voided. Obviously he'll remember now that he's been reminded. A superhero should be ashamed of creating this market.
Suspended Sat 7th Jun 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Sun 8th Jun 11:32am PDT by lesley[Admin]: Whilst he did remember it, I only received a card, no flowers or gift before midnight on 6th. Certainly less than £5. Sorry for anyone who lost money! (p.s. he was back from London)

Suspend date: Sat 7th Jun 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 8th Jun 11:32am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 7th Jun 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (21)

21 predictions

23 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted No (H$33 at 23%)
23 weeks ago
robmar predicted Yes (H$100 at 77%)
23 weeks ago
glenda78748 predicted Yes (H$20 at 77%)
23 weeks ago
constable1664 predicted Yes (H$20 at 77%)
23 weeks ago
jamalpeter predicted Yes (H$230 at 77%)
more

Comments (24)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
A cruise, to the fifth ... ?! what !?
I'd stay with the wood option, hehe

as being NOT an Hubdub staff member, I am allowed to predict NO (prove me wrong, Nigel!)
posted 23 weeks ago
Hmm, I might have to flag this as the initial odds appear considerably off 8^) Best wishes to Nigel & Lesley!
posted 23 weeks ago
  3 tomg[Admin]
@jennieandboys What we all want to know is how did YOU know?!? And I'm also gutted we can't predict on it... :)
posted 23 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
I want to know where he'd get an airline ticket or a cruise for under $10...

Congrats!

PS...my wife forgot my birthday last year...remembered it 3 days later...
posted 23 weeks ago
@tomg - I'd love to claim some kind of psychic power but Lesley mentioned it to the superusers. Actually the market was her idea, although I'm not sure what her initial odds would have been... :)

Btw, the gift ideas are just from one of those hallmark sites. I would personally be pretty pissed to get silverware for my anniversary (you reading this tri??).
posted 23 weeks ago
  6 randburg
Warmest Wishes to Nigel and Lesley on their 5th Anniversary!

---------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone who stayed up and followed the SUPER USERS WARS last night would know that Nigel is in the US looking for new investment/investors for hubdub...Perhaps that has some bearing on this question...
posted 23 weeks ago
  7 destry[Admin]
Congrats. And did I miss the super user wars last night? I feel so left out? I was so busy suspending basketball questions, I could have missed something.

posted 23 weeks ago
Happy Anniversary and Congratulations to you both on your anniversary!

(@Jenni... My first instinct was to Decline this challenge once I'd read the question!)
posted 23 weeks ago
  9 Erik
Congratulations....However, I find it abhorrent that a "superuser" would try to get away with a market so easily gamed. This must be voided.
posted 23 weeks ago
  10 randburg
I think Nigel wished Lesley a very happy anniversary by phone, and that she will get her card and gift/flowers when he gets back...He won't forget, but she will have to wait a few days to collect the "loot". So, I think this is NO, not because Nigel forgot, but because the settlement rules say that she must get card and gift this evening...
posted 23 weeks ago
  11 skipper[Power User]
Erik: How is it so easily gamed
Randburg: I believe Nigel flew home quickly to get there on their anniversary; we will see, since Lesley knew of this market, she probably took pics as proof!
posted 23 weeks ago
  12 randburg
@erik: "Total activity: H$2,947"

If this market was "gamed", somebody didn't do a very good job of it!
posted 23 weeks ago
  13 Erik
if the $ amount the point, randburg?
posted 23 weeks ago
  14 Erik
Is the $ amount the point, randburg?
posted 23 weeks ago
  15 Erik
skipper, obviously, after being reminded here, he won't forget.
posted 23 weeks ago
  16 kruijs[Power User]
Huh, NO? Nigel, ts ts ts
posted 23 weeks ago
  17 skipper[Power User]
Erik: that isn't gaming, and look he did forget
If I wrote a question saying "Will Derek Jeter hit a home run on 6/8/08?" and he saw it, it wouldn't change the outcomes, now would it?
posted 23 weeks ago
  18 cognos[Power User]
well? we're just dying to find out.
posted 23 weeks ago
  19 mork[Power User]
In reality many questions on hubdub are subject to gaming according to the terms randburg describes.
All one has to do is research hubdub and conspire a well timed crime to make alot of hubdub dollars.
Of course the rules of gaming still apply so if any hubdub member became associated with the crime publicly we would have no choice to subject them to the rules regarding gaming.
I am by no means comparing what this man has done to being a crime and I pray that his wife absolutely does not treat it that way, because he knows full well he is going to have to cut her some slack next time she does 'one of those things'.
posted 23 weeks ago
  20 mork[Power User]
I think the outcome of this question is a good indication of the lack of gaming going on.
I feel it is so rare in fact that it would not take very long for a gamer to draw attention to themselves and be found out.
posted 23 weeks ago
  21 lesley[Admin]
@mork - hey hey, so I have carte blanche to get up to mischief then? Brilliant news!

"because he knows full well he is going to have to cut her some slack next time she does 'one of those things'. "

p.s. If any of you knew Nigel as I do, you would realise that if he HAD seen the market, I probably wouldn't even have got a card! I'm not saying he's difficult, but... ;-)
posted 23 weeks ago
  22 lesley[Admin]
@bayoubear - now THAT'S bad!!!
posted 23 weeks ago
Hahaha what an AWESOME market! Sorry Lesley that he dropped the ball, lol, and Nigel, you're gonna sleep outside when you get back to the UK man, LOL ... Hope you enjoy these lavish American hotels with nice big warm beds while you're here, LOL....... :-D
Aawwwwww, married life is sooo pleasant sometimes :-D
posted 23 weeks ago
  24 mork[Power User]
@ Lesley,
I didn't realize you got a card.
:-P
posted 23 weeks ago

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