Who will name a running mate first, Obama or McCain?

It would be interesting if McCain were to choose condoleeza rice or another woman/minority. It would take away all the stupid "I wanna vote for history/progress/civil rights" votes from Obama.

There's a lot of speculation that McCain is going to choose Lieberman, which makes a lot of sense if he figures that conservative Republican are a lost cause but he can win from the center.

He so badly needs to associate himself with a black/white lady.
Are the self-serving days of politicians over?

Thought this offered some terrific insight: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/us/politics/01nagourneycnd.html?_r=1&nl=pol&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&emc=polb1&adxnnlx=1214856115-SKANc7ppMf9kvqrsk1EyWw

JenniAndBoys
Very interesting article.
It makes a good point that McCain will probably announce after Obama.
GOP convention starts after the DNC convention ends.
McCain's best option is to time his announcement so that it takes away some momentum from the Obama campaign.

Yeah, it seems like a great move for him to announce almost immediately after Obama does. It will definitely mitigate the additional coverage Obama would be getting. Seems we still have to wait another month. SO curious!!

Well I think Joseph would be a DISASTER for McCain's campaign!!! That guy is three dimes short of a quarter and is the most boring guy in politics!!! It would be suicide to choose such a bafoon to run with! I agree with the sentiment that if he chose a woman or a minority like Colin Powell, that'd gain him soooooo much! But I guess Powell is outta the picture due to his disillusionment with the Republican party.

Last thing I heard was that McCain would wait til the last day of DNC or next day to announce so he could take some wind out of sails of the normal convention bump.

But...if McCain had a 'really" good choice in mind, he could make the announcement before Obama, getting a news bump now that he really needs coming off Obama's world trip...he could also, with a good pick, put pressure on the Democrats and possibly affect their choice.

Great Question . . . still interesting and NEWSWORTHY!

I think McCain has to worry that his pick isn't as big as news story as he is hoping. If he picks Romney or Pawlenty, I think he has to worry that Obama will still win the news cycle. McCain seems to be struggling getting his campaign in the news. I am a Republican, but am one of those who don't like McCain. I think McCain has to select Romney at this point in time, the economy is just too important.

You're right...most likely it won't be as big of a news story and he's really not getting much attention now anyway...it seems that everyday Obama is doing something to get the attention on him . . . McCain only gets noticed when something goes wrong...and most of the most probable Republican VP choices just don't bring that much to the ticket as far as excitement goes....

Condi Rice is out. Remember, he's got to break free of the Bush years.
Bobby Jindal would raise a lot of excitement, but has no National Resume.
Carly Fiorina would be a great asset, but no Government experience that I can recall. And while an expert on all things financial, not necessarily qualified in most other fields.

I have been buying Romney in the VP markets on Hubdub. He feels like a great choice. Represents the true conservative part of the Republican party, is considered by everyone to be an EXPERT on the economy, and is well known for saving the olympics from financial troubles. What better time than around the olympics to make him the VP choice.
I was watching Chuck Todd on Hardball the other night and he said he had it on good authority that Obama would pick and announce his person before Olympics start on August 8th.

I think Romney would be an interesting choice but Romney couldn't even deliver his own state, just like Edwards four years ago.

Here's a news story from AP...headline:
McCain may be zeroing in on a running mate

Speculation mounts as candidate struggles for attention during Obama trip
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25801470/
"Speculation swirled Tuesday that McCain might name his vice presidential partner within the next few days — right in the middle of Barack Obama's overseas tour."

So maybe there will be something afoot in the next few days...gotta get somebody to pay attention to him somehow...

Plus...another thought...perhaps Obama wants McCain to pick first so he can better choose his own running mate...

@bayoubear (15): that was exactly my thought why I did not cash in last week. It seems like the only way that McCain can at least TRY to spoil Obama's world tour...

jake,
no Republican running mate is going to deliver Massachusetts. However, Gov. Romney is remembered fondly in Michigan. I have family there who are die-hard Democrats who describe him as one of the best Governors Michigan ever had. Earlier this year, some who had never voted for a Republican President indicated they might go with Romney if he secured the nomination just because he was his son. When the pundits say Romney could help deliver the state of Michigan, I believe it is a possibility. Some also believe he is popular enough in Nevada and Colorado to help McCain there as well. That's three states. Massachusetts is never in contention for the Republicans, it's the swing states that count, and just because Romney isn't from one of them, doesn't mean his name won't help on the ticket.

Smidge, I agree with you. Romney would probably swing Michigan toward McCain, especially after the Democratic debacle up there with the primary. Romney does carry a strong name out west also since the Salt Lake Olympics.

I think this may possibly be my alltime favorite Hubdub market. The graph is a great reflection of developing news and pundit speculation. Massive kudos to Loren on such a simple but profound question!

We've seen this type of graph on a Hubdub market once before, but I can't remember the subject. It truly reflected developing news.

Can anyone remember?

If this isn't decided by the settlement date, then what happens? Will it just remain in suspension until one candidate declares?

@ pixelpaws -- yes, the question will remain suspended until one of the candidates announces their VP choice.

The conventional ;-) thinking is that because the Democratic National Convention begins on August 25th, that at least Senator Obama will announce his choice before the 25th.

With 30k+ bets in this market, I've spent a good part of the past month with major negative growth in Politics. Now all of a sudden with Obama sitting at 97%, I find myself at #5 on the Politics leaderboard. Sure hope he declares soon!